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Chris R.
United States
Unspecified
Missouri
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Donald
United States
New Alexandria
Pennsylvania
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What's the margin for error?

 
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Xuzu Horror
United States
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And here's the full list, instead of cutting it off right before you see any blue ones.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

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David Hoffman
United States
Briarcliff Manor
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Republican candidates win elections Republican candidates are supposed to win.

Film at eleven.
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Damian
United States
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There's 34 seats up for 2016, of which 24 are Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to flip 4 of those (okay 5 in the unlikely event of a Trump). Your own poll shows six pretty heavy favorites:

Bennet +16
Bayh +7
Feingold +11
Hassan +10
Harris +18
Schumer +32

Plus a few other closer ones. What are you trumpeting here exactly? Republicans aren't losing their biggest strongholds?
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
United States
North Pole
Alaska
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damiangerous wrote:
There's 34 seats up for 2016, of which 24 are Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to flip 4 of those (okay 5 in the unlikely event of a Trump). Your own poll shows six pretty heavy favorites:

Bennet +16
Bayh +7
Feingold +11
Hassan +10
Harris +18
Schumer +32

Plus a few other closer ones. What are you trumpeting here exactly? Republicans aren't losing their biggest strongholds?


I think only one of those is a flip.

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Damian
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Koldfoot wrote:
damiangerous wrote:
There's 34 seats up for 2016, of which 24 are Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to flip 4 of those (okay 5 in the unlikely event of a Trump). Your own poll shows six pretty heavy favorites:

Bennet +16
Bayh +7
Feingold +11
Hassan +10
Harris +18
Schumer +32

Plus a few other closer ones. What are you trumpeting here exactly? Republicans aren't losing their biggest strongholds?


I think only one of those is a flip.

Yeah I think you're right, I was thinking those polls were focused on the potential flips. Schumer and Feingold especially should have tipped me off though. There's a few possible flips that aren't on there. The Dems do look like they'll pick up 4, but it's not a lock.
 
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Junior McSpiffy
United States
Riverton
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The House and Senate will always be a back-and-forth. The GOP isn't over in that regard. But as for the presidency, it will always be an uphill climb for one simple reason:

The United States is becoming more urban. Until the GOP message resonates with urban voters, the states with the largest electoral delegate totals will keep voting for the Democracy party. As the map currently sits, it's just an inherent advantage for the party of welfare. And it's only going more that direction.
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
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GameCrossing wrote:
The House and Senate will always be a back-and-forth. The GOP isn't over in that regard. But as for the presidency, it will always be an uphill climb for one simple reason:

The United States is becoming more urban. Until the GOP message resonates with urban voters, the states with the largest electoral delegate totals will keep voting for the Democracy party. As the map currently sits, it's just an inherent advantage for the party of welfare. And it's only going more that direction.


That's pretty good McS

But 17 trillion in debt with neither party trying to slow down?

When the crash happens, who will get the blame?
 
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StevenE Smooth Sailing...
United States
Torrance
California
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Koldfoot wrote:
damiangerous wrote:
There's 34 seats up for 2016, of which 24 are Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to flip 4 of those (okay 5 in the unlikely event of a Trump). Your own poll shows six pretty heavy favorites:

Bennet +16
Bayh +7
Feingold +11
Hassan +10
Harris +18
Schumer +32

Plus a few other closer ones. What are you trumpeting here exactly? Republicans aren't losing their biggest strongholds?


I think only one of those is a flip.



When did the Philipinos get involved?


Sorry, bad joke

Please continue...
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Steve
Thailand
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Koldfoot wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
The House and Senate will always be a back-and-forth. The GOP isn't over in that regard. But as for the presidency, it will always be an uphill climb for one simple reason:

The United States is becoming more urban. Until the GOP message resonates with urban voters, the states with the largest electoral delegate totals will keep voting for the Democracy party. As the map currently sits, it's just an inherent advantage for the party of welfare. And it's only going more that direction.


That's pretty good McS

But 17 trillion in debt with neither party trying to slow down?

When the crash happens, who will get the blame?

To answer your question requires you to see the truth, which I doubt you can see. All these numbers are off the top of my head because at age 70 I'm not good at searching the internet. Someone can improve them for me and that would be good.

1] When Reagan became Pres. the national debt was right at $1 T.
2] When Bush I left office it stood at [IIRC] about $6 T.
3] Clinton was able too run a surplus at the end of his terms and the debt stood at about $8 T when he left office. This surplus may have 'caused' the recession that hit in 2001.
4] When Bush II entered office the debt was about $8 T. When he left it was about $13 T. Bush had 2 recessions, the 1st right off so it was not his fault. The 2nd hit in 2008 and was the Repuds fault. This recession caused Obama to have to run a larger deficit than he wished too.
5] When Obama entered office the debt was about $13, now it is about $17 T. But, I would split the $4 T increase in half because the Repuds caused the huge recession which lowered tax revenues and raised spending to fight it. These effects were a] unavoidable and b] a good thing given the existing recession.

To summarize --
1] The 1st $1 T I'll ignore because it was small and both parties had contributed to it. This leaves $16 T to give blame for.
2] The Repuds get the blame for $12 = $5 T (Regan and Bush I) + $7 T for Bush II (= $5 T + $2 T).
3] The Dems get the blame for Clinton's $2 T and $2 T of Obama's = $4 T.

As I said right up front these numbers are not exact. But, they are close and even if the true numbers were $11 T vs $5 T, that would still be a 2-1 split instead of a 3-1 split.

.......................................................................
Also, despite what you think, it is quite impossible to tax the American people and Companies over many years the $17 T necessary to pay off the debt. Impossible, because this would make them feel poor and so stop spending and so cause a Recession, which would force the Gov. to deficit spend.

The only way to reduce the debt is to create new dollars and use them to retire the debt over the same many years. I'm no expert, but maybe we could tax more and run a surplus if at the same time we also created a lot of new dollars and retired additional debt in that way. Maybe the 2 effects would cancel out and the economy would not be taxed into a recession. Getting the ratio right would be tricky.

I'm no expert, but some debt is a good thing because insurance comp. need to hold it as their reserves to make claims payments in the case of some huge increase in claims. And other comp. like to hold them also, like banks.
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Koldfoot wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
The House and Senate will always be a back-and-forth. The GOP isn't over in that regard. But as for the presidency, it will always be an uphill climb for one simple reason:

The United States is becoming more urban. Until the GOP message resonates with urban voters, the states with the largest electoral delegate totals will keep voting for the Democracy party. As the map currently sits, it's just an inherent advantage for the party of welfare. And it's only going more that direction.


That's pretty good McS

But 17 trillion in debt with neither party trying to slow down?

When the crash happens, who will get the blame?


You (the average joe) will do you even need to ask?
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Steve
Thailand
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growlley wrote:

You (the average joe) will; do you even need to ask?


FIFY (The double space you tried to leave there is reduced to 1 space by the machine, that is why I have to put periods between the spaces all the time. Like this: . . 1].)

 
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fightcitymayor
United States
Mc Donald
Pennsylvania
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It is certainly premature to declare the death of the GOP, but lets look a bit closer at some of these races:

PA: Toomey vs. McGinty
This one wasn't even supposed to be close, and because of Trump's poisoning of the Republican brand, Toomey now has a fight on his hands. I ought to know, because I've already gotten hate-mail from the Toomey campaign about how Katie McGinty will raise my electric bills in PA because of her position on climate change. So the Toomey campaign is obviously concerned, although he is more of a Chamber of Commerce Republican than an ideologue, so he should still win in November.

OH: Portman vs. Strickland
Portman won his last Senate election by 17 points, and Ted Strickland is a fossil at this point. It's not close, and shouldn't be.

FL: Rubio vs. Murphy
When Rubio pulled an about-face and decided to seek re-election, Repubs breathed a sigh of relief. He's the one guy that doesn't have a Trump-stain, and now has national recognition and plenty of cash. This one shouldn't be close either.

NC: Burr vs. Ross
A near toss-up in a red state that Obama lost in 2012. Burr the incumbent has been slightly up the whole time, but faces negative job-approval ratings.

AZ: McCain vs. Kirkpatrick
A good example of the idiocy of the electorate who claim to hate congress, but somehow John McCain has never lost a race in Arizona. Another Republican incumbent in a red state that has a consistent lead in the polls.

MO: Blunt vs. Kander
Another incumbent Republican in a red state that somehow has a fight on his hands. And another Republican with bad approval ratings.

IA: Grassley vs. Judge
Another Republican with a big warchest of funds and a career in the senate that stretches back to 1981 (again, like McCain, where are all of these voters who claim they hate the congress?!?) Yet somehow he will have some sort of a competition come November.

So I am in agreement that the Republican party is far from dead, but given a lot of races that should be slam-dunks, this cherry-picked menu of challenges is far from a ringing endorsement of GOP power.
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Born To Lose, Live To Win
United States
Cleveland Heights
Ohio
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fightcitymayor wrote:

OH: Portman vs. Strickland
Portman won his last Senate election by 17 points, and Ted Strickland is a fossil at this point. It's not close, and shouldn't be.
Sounds ageist to me, what's your "fossil" certification age? He's only 6 years older than Hillary.

He's going to lose because every where outside the Northern ohio cities has a bad taste in their mouths from his time as Governor. Age is immaterial.
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fightcitymayor
United States
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TheChin! wrote:
fightcitymayor wrote:

OH: Portman vs. Strickland
Portman won his last Senate election by 17 points, and Ted Strickland is a fossil at this point. It's not close, and shouldn't be.
Sounds ageist to me, what's your "fossil" certification age? He's only 6 years older than Hillary.

He's going to lose because every where outside the Northern ohio cities has a bad taste in their mouths from his time as Governor. Age is immaterial.
My fossil certification age is a guy who's been running for office since 1976. He's a fossil. And just today the Democratic party pulled the plug on ad dollars for said fossil, so it looks like he is now toast. The fossil, that is.


FOSSIL!
FOSSIL!
FOSSIL!
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Born To Lose, Live To Win
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fightcitymayor wrote:
My fossil certification age is a guy who's been running for office since 1976. He's a fossil. And just today the Democratic party pulled the plug on ad dollars for said fossil, so it looks like he is now toast. The fossil, that is.
Well, in four years I hope you don't support Hillary and mention her age, because in her next term she would have been as old and by definition a fossil.
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fightcitymayor
United States
Mc Donald
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Les Marshall
United States
Woodinville
Washington
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Koldfoot wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
The House and Senate will always be a back-and-forth. The GOP isn't over in that regard. But as for the presidency, it will always be an uphill climb for one simple reason:

The United States is becoming more urban. Until the GOP message resonates with urban voters, the states with the largest electoral delegate totals will keep voting for the Democracy party. As the map currently sits, it's just an inherent advantage for the party of welfare. And it's only going more that direction.


That's pretty good McS

But 17 trillion in debt with neither party trying to slow down?

When the crash happens, who will get the blame?


Both. Debt is tricky. It is a combination of both revenue AND spending.

We can always choose to reduce spending but where and to what effect. Every dollar of savings means one less dollar in the recipients pocket. If you choose foreign aid ( a small number), those dollars come back to us but, most other spending reductions mean fewer dollars in the pockets of domestic recipients and thus less stimulus for consumption. Social security, military wages, pensions, medicare/medicaid, welfare, education grants and so on tend to translate directly into spending which stimulates demand. If you deflate demand, production tends to lag thus reducing growth and depressing the labor market.

A big part of the reason for the balloon in debt the obligations which existed before the 2007 crash. Real estate principle, stock market equity and pensions were all hit hard which in turn depressed demand and froze the investment and job markets. Demands for aid rose just as revenue declined.

The big key is to retire debt when the economy is strong (which Democrats often fail to push) and to stimulate growth via smart spending when the economy lags (which fiscally conservative Republicans often oppose). World free trade policy (long championed by the GOP) has depressed domestic labor values (though perhaps not as much as tech advances) while we have failed to adequately invest in retraining/education to maintain our advantage. Deregulation significantly led to the massive bubble in finance and the creation of essentially fraudulent instruments.

BOTH parties had a hand in creating the current economic state and dwelling on simple single vector remedies has only dumbed down the debate.

The US needs to revise it's relationship to the WTO, invest in modern infrastructure, invest in competitive education, streamline it's tax codes and recover offshore capital, better regulate the financial markets and stop acting as the worlds cop.
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Chris R.
United States
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A Majority Of Hillary Clinton Supporters Plan To Vote For Republicans

http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/02/majority-of-clinton-suppor...
 
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