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Subject: 538: PW, Clinton continues to slip rss

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Mac Mcleod
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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?...

Florida has softened a lot.


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?...
Princeton Wang is showing he softening now and also showing a tied senate


As of September 2, 12:03PM EDT:
Snapshot (96 state polls):
Clinton 341,
Trump 197 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +4.9%

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 90%, Bayesian 94%
Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +1.9%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 73%

Random drift is down by 2% and Bayesian is down by 1% since last week.

I think Clinton's plan isn't working. Trump has showed he's sane enough to keep his mouth mostly shut and stay on script.


 
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Steven McKinney
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In order for the media to keep its ratings, they need drama. Bad publicity for any candidate is good for them and the polls reflect it.
 
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jeremy cobert
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she really need to be up by 10 going into the debates. Once she speaks, she loses a ton of support. She is just not likeable or relateable.

Trump is funny and a douche which makes him totally relateable to most Americans.
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Trey Chambers
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Clinton really only has two things to worry about:

A. Wikileaks October surprise.

B. Getting trounced in the debates.

(A) is a total unknown, who knows what it could possibly be? That's the only thing I would be worried about.

(B) I see as extremely unlikely. No way can Trump stay in character for 3 debates. If I was Hillary's debate coach I'd be teaching her how to rile him up while still looking calm and Presidential. If she can do that, she'll crush him. Debates like this have never been about policy anyway.
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Donald
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maxo-texas wrote:

Princeton Wang is showing he softening now..





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non sequitur
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Shampoo4you wrote:

Clinton really only has two things to worry about:

A. Wikileaks October surprise.

B. Getting trounced in the debates.

(A) is a total unknown, who knows what it could possibly be? That's the only thing I would be worried about.

(B) I see as extremely unlikely. No way can Trump stay in character for 3 debates. If I was Hillary's debate coach I'd be teaching her how to rile him up while still looking calm and Presidential. If she can do that, she'll crush him. Debates like this have never been about policy anyway.


I dunno, Trump may have the edge in being extemporaneous. Hillary always sounds like a robot.
 
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Eddy Richards
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Shampoo4you wrote:


B. Getting trounced in the debates.

(A) is a total unknown, who knows what it could possibly be? That's the only thing I would be worried about.

(B) I see as extremely unlikely. No way can Trump stay in character for 3 debates.


Surely you mean stay out of character (i.e. vaguely sane)?
 
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Tom McVey
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maxo-texas wrote:

Princeton Wang is showing he softening now and also showing a tied senate


Eh? Wang's got a 73% chance of Dem-controlled Senate, and a 94% Bayesian estimate of a HRC win.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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tmcvey wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

Princeton Wang is showing he softening now and also showing a tied senate


Eh? Wang's got a 73% chance of Dem-controlled Senate, and a 94% Bayesian estimate of a HRC win.


That's down from last week.
 
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Chapel
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Trump has moderated his message in the last week, that has probably helped his numbers. Which really I'm not sure why that would matter.

But next week is a new week, and I'm sure he can only hold his tongue so long before stepping on it again.
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