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The CNN poll is of a model of "likely voters" where their model split for conservative/moderate/liberal is 46/32/22. In 2012, the actual electorate conservative/moderate/liberal split was 34/41/25. The CNN poll also assumes that white voters will comprise 74 percent of the electorate; in 2012 they comprised 72 percent and most expectations are that in this election they'll be at 70 percent or lower.

Oh, and on top of that, the CNN poll has a margin of error of 8.5%, which is way higher than the standard 3% most decent polls hover around.

It's a bad poll based on a sample projection that's incredibly favourable to Trump and he still only beats Clinton by two percent.
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Boaty McBoatface
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mightygodking wrote:
The CNN poll is of a model of "likely voters" where their model split for conservative/moderate/liberal is 46/32/22. In 2012, the actual electorate conservative/moderate/liberal split was 34/41/25. The CNN poll also assumes that white voters will comprise 74 percent of the electorate; in 2012 they comprised 72 percent and most expectations are that in this election they'll be at 70 percent or lower.

Oh, and on top of that, the CNN poll has a margin of error of 8.5%, which is way higher than the standard 3% most decent polls hover around.

It's a bad poll based on a sample projection that's incredibly favourable to Trump and he still only beats Clinton by two percent.
Except among registered voters.

 
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It's funny how polls are lying or wrong, until they show Trump in the lead. This is the first time he's lead in a poll in about 6 weeks...

I wish people would stop posting single polls and instead use one of the aggregates like RCP:



The race is tightening, but the president isn't elected by a national vote, but instead by the electoral college. So even better than a national poll aggregate, is an electoral model based on state polls. The NYT's Upshot has a listing of the most popular models:



But by all means, keep posting the single polls shake
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Daniel Edwards
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Drew has been annoying the shit out of me lately but can't we all just accept this as a single data point and move on.

Polls come and go. Lets see what the average is in a week.
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Tom McVey
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jmilum wrote:
The race is tightening,


Some of the reported tightening in the next few weeks will be because of the phasing-out of registered voter polls to almost solely likely voter model polls. As conservatives vote more consistently than liberals in normal elections, you should see a narrowing of the polls.

However, this is not a normal election. We've had two elections in the UK (the last general election, and the Brexit poll) where the pollster got it majorly wrong due to underestimating conservative turnout.

For this U.S. election, the motivation/demotivation of voters based on their sympathy/antipathy to the candidates, and the radical difference in GOTV infrastructure, and the presence of an at least plausible libertarian alternative for disaffected GOP voters, means that you could make an argument for any particular likely voter model. Some pollsters will have egg on their faces in November.
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I'm still pessimistically optimistic that Trump cannot win this race...But it'll be on the seat of my pants till November.
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Well, since we are pipe-dreaming poll-bias, then I am throwing in mine:

Poll: Clinton and Trump locked in dead heat in Texas

Whoo! Going blue!
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MWChapel wrote:
I'm still pessimistically optimistic that Trump cannot win this race...But it'll be on the seat of my pants till November.
We're just happy you'l be wearing pants, it's unsettling to think what your hands are doing when you aren't typing.
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MWChapel wrote:
Well, since we are pipe-dreaming poll-bias, then I am throwing in mine:

Poll: Clinton and Trump locked in dead heat in Texas

Whoo! Going blue!


From that same single poll - as long as single polls are deciding elections now:

LOLOLOLOL



Mr. Somehow Not a Real Conservative is putting all sorts of reliably red states in shades of purple. Texas. Mississippi. Even Alaska, of all places, is only a few points in the red column.

And the hilariously mindblowing part is that he's spending fuck all on state organization and GOTV. (If only he and the RNC had some sort of community organizer people to, you know, organize GOTV efforts. Guess not.)
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Mac Mcleod
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It's a fact that clinton's lead is melting away at a consistent rate.

No signs of bottoming yet.

The CNN Poll is the canary in the coal mine against being overconfident.
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
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This is the first mention of independents that I've noted in a poll.

In years gone by that's all we heard, who's got the independents, how will they break on Election Day, that is the crux of every single poll in every other election.

This year: jack shit. Very rare mention of the usually God-like independents.

This year it's a few mentions of the "undecideds" here and there.

Why? The two terms are not the same.

I don't know, but there have been hints here and there that the "undecideds" are heavily republicans. Undecideds make up 30% of the electorate, and they are going to break heavily republican.
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This is the only recent presidential election where one candidate (Trump) is so unqualified to be president that the issues have become almost irrelevant. A Trump victory really would be a catastrophe not only for the United States, but for the world.

Hopefully this bad news will energize the Clinton team to stop playing it safe, and to prove to America that she is the more qualified candidate. That means she should release her medical records, hold regular press conferences, and campaign harder. She is the better candidate by far, but she needs to show it.
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The 538 take which seems pretty measured. Trump's prospects under polls-only increased to 31% which aligns with the betting market. Clinton still in good shape if the gap stays about 4%. Everything up for grabs if that gap continues to shrink.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons...
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The Dallas Morning News just endorsed Clinton - the first time they've endorsed a Democrat in 75 years.

Quote:
Clinton has remained dogged by questions about her honesty, her willingness to shade the truth. Her use of a private email server while secretary of state is a clear example of poor judgment. She should take additional steps to divorce allegations of influence peddling from the Clinton Foundation. And she must be more forthright with the public by holding news conferences, as opposed to relying on a shield of carefully scripted appearances and speeches.

Those are real shortcomings. But they pale in comparison to the litany of evils some opponents accuse her of. Treason? Murder? Her being cleared of crimes by investigation after investigation has no effect on these political hyenas; they refuse to see anything but conspiracies and cover-ups.

We reject the politics of personal destruction. Clinton has made mistakes and displayed bad judgment, but her errors are plainly in a different universe than her opponent's.

Trump's values are hostile to conservatism. He plays on fear — exploiting base instincts of xenophobia, racism and misogyny — to bring out the worst in all of us, rather than the best. His serial shifts on fundamental issues reveal an astounding absence of preparedness. And his improvisational insults and midnight tweets exhibit a dangerous lack of judgment and impulse control.

After nearly four decades in the public spotlight, 25 of them on the national stage, Clinton is a known quantity. For all her warts, she is the candidate more likely to keep our nation safe, to protect American ideals and to work across the aisle to uphold the vital domestic institutions that rely on a competent, experienced president.

Hillary Clinton has spent years in the trenches doing the hard work needed to prepare herself to lead our nation. In this race, at this time, she deserves your vote.
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OK we need to chop off her head.
 
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myopia wrote:
OK we need to chop off her head.


Decapitation doesn't always work on immortals. We first need to determine what kind of living dead she is, so we can employ the appropriate method.
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Drew1365 wrote:


And this is why you should always run things through an editor. As a writer, I can see the exact thought process that went into that error and why it wouldn't be caught.

Use an editor!
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Dispaminite wrote:
myopia wrote:
OK we need to chop off her head.


Decapitation doesn't always work on immortals. We first need to determine what kind of living dead she is, so we can employ the appropriate method.
I am going with a Noisomepharto.
 
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AndrewRogue wrote:
Drew1365 wrote:


And this is why you should always run things through an editor. As a writer, I can see the exact thought process that went into that error and why it wouldn't be caught.

Use an editor!


Editors cost money.

Seeing the same issue with books. If they are going sans-serif editor then they need to allow crowds our in and authors should update their published final draft (because that's what it really is) with corrections.

 
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Boaty McBoatface
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galad2003 wrote:
AndrewRogue wrote:
Drew1365 wrote:


And this is why you should always run things through an editor. As a writer, I can see the exact thought process that went into that error and why it wouldn't be caught.

Use an editor!


She looks about 250 years old
Oh well that's my vote lost to her, take that old person!
 
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