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Subject: Naval Supremacy and the Value of a Pip rss

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Dan Huffman
United States
Arlington
Virginia
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One very minor correction....in this paragraph:

"* In the case where the South defends a beach with 1-2 SPs but no fort, each point of Union Amphib will be very important. This will likely be a small battle, which does not favor the defender. Imagine the Texas beach defended with 2 SPs only, being attacked by 2 Union SPs with an Amphib value of One.

...There is a 1/6 chance this invasion will succeed.
...With one more Amphib strength, the chance doubles to 2/6.
...If Amphib is upped to 3, the chance is 3/6, etc."

The etc. is misleading. The maximum Amphib modifier is a +3 for either side.

Other than that, I agree with everything said.

------------------------------------------------------------

I know you like statistics, so here are some interesting ones. I have the 2000 edition, which I learned has less cards than later ones.

The CSA has 3 chances for an Ironclad (CSS Tennessee, CSS Arkansas, CSS Virginia) one chance for the Hunley, and one chance for 3 torpedos.

The USA has one chance to remove a CSS Ironclad (USS Monitor)

The USA has six chances to increase the blockade number (60, 61, 63, 68, 98, 69, 71)

The USA has four chances to increase the Amphib number by one (70, 72, 69, 71) and one chance to increase it by two (67) .... note that 69 and 71 can only be Amphib or Blockade, not both.

The USA has seven "2" cards that allow him to invade, The 5 Minor Campaigns, the 2 Major campaigns, 17 Confederate "3" cards, 5 Both "3" cards, 7 Union "3" cards, in addition to three of the "3" cards mentioned above (61, 69, 71).

I doubt the USA will make 39 invasions in the game, but it does show that they can probably invade almost every turn, should they choose to do so.

If Foreign Intervention and Emancipation Proclamation are played normally, it directly limits the North to all the above chances (save invasions which drops to 37). However, if they are drawn and the requirements aren't met, it increases the North's chances to increase both Naval modifiers.

I'll let you statisticians decide what all this means. LOL
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