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Mechs vs. Minions» Forums » General

Subject: How quickly do you think this will sell out? rss

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Bum Kim
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Game looks awesome--so glad they didn't try to recreate a MOBA onto a board game.

Also, not worried about servers being able to handle traffic on purchase day.

What I am wondering about is the 15K copies available on Oct. and another 15K in December. Considering the millions of League players, high reviews and the insane deal of $75, I'm thinking the game will sell out within minutes. But I'm not a game publisher and surely Riot has done some market research to come up with 30K as a first print run. But anyone else feel like 15K is low?

Poll: Predictions of Sell Out
How quickly do you think the available 15K copies of Mechs and Minions sell out on release Oct. 13, 11AM PST?
What's your prediction of how quickly the game will sell out?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Within seconds
11.1% 41
Within 10 minutes
20.8% 77
Within 30 minutes
8.4% 31
Within an hour
19.1% 71
Within 2 hours
7.8% 29
Within 6 hours
5.1% 19
Within 24 hours
14.0% 52
Won't sell out
13.7% 51
Voters 371
This poll is now closed.   371 answers
Poll created by bumyong
Closes: Thu Oct 13, 2016 6:00 am
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Jean-Philippe Thériault
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Where's the "multiple days/weeks" option?

Massive Darkness only had 22K backers and that took a full month to get to. I think people vastly overestimate how many boardgamers there are out there. 30K is a *huge* first printing by our standards, even if it's only a drop in a bucket for videogamers. And LoL gamers numbers is irrelevant since they're not the target market. If this was a videogame it would be a different story.
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Jason Brown
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First, no servers in the world could process 30,000 orders within seconds or minutes and I suspect not even an hour. I'm predicting a massive log jam at 1100 PST ON THE 13th...

I think it will sell through the the first print run in a few days. I think folks here are VASTLY overestimating how many LoL players will even give this a 2nd glance, much less order it. Have you read their forums? They're absolutely floored at how expensive this is!

Of course, even if 1 out of 1000 go for it (and I sincerely hope they do!), that's 100,000 copies sold...
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Robert Manore
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Warlord beats Troll, Troll beats Elf, Elf beats Water Sprite, and basically everything else beats Enchanted Bunny.
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I think it will be sold out in a few seconds, so they rest of you don't even need to try to buy a copy so it increases my chances of snagging a copy.
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Cory Kelso
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MAJBrown22 wrote:
I think folks here are VASTLY overestimating how many LoL players will even give this a 2nd glance, much less order it. Have you read their forums? They're absolutely floored at how expensive this is!


I second this. I really want this, and totally understand the value being offered, but I still can't justify the $$ to my wife. And she likes to play games with me.

I can imagine the sticker shock experience for somebody who is used to playing a free video game and has no clue about the board game hobby.
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James Mathias
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It will sell out within 1 to 2 minutes. And I fear we will likely have a slew of people that have orders go through beyond the actual stock count, who will get sad emails cancelling their orders.
 
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Matt Lee
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MAJBrown22 wrote:
First, no servers in the world could process 30,000 orders within seconds or minutes and I suspect not even an hour.


While maybe not that quick, I could point to the speed of sellout times for the Pax conventions, San Diego Comic Con and NY Comic Con. Estimates of around 30-40k independent orders for each convention is not out of the question.
 
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Bruno D
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MAJBrown22 wrote:
First, no servers in the world could process 30,000 orders within seconds or minutes and I suspect not even an hour.


What ? Processing 30,000 orders is a drop in the bucket for some order-handling systems I know ... whistle Think 300 orders per second.
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Jean-Philippe Thériault
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I don't think people realize that there are many classic, excellent board games that never sold 30K copies... It's a huge first printing by any metric and is a huge risk from Riot Games.

Who cares if LoL has zillion of subscribers? It's a F2P game. The vast majority of their players don't pay a cent for the videogame, they won't put up 75$ for a derived product. What you should be looking at is how many board gamers will pick it up. Admittedly it's a pretty good bargain and it will be very popular in our community, so I think that 30K will sell out, but that's gonna be a question of weeks, not minutes.
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Bruno D
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I think there is a real possibility of a sell out within the first 24-72 hours, and I wouldn't be too surprised if they sell out within a couple of hours.
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Brent Brown
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teg2 wrote:
MAJBrown22 wrote:
First, no servers in the world could process 30,000 orders within seconds or minutes and I suspect not even an hour.


What ? Processing 30,000 orders is a drop in the bucket for some order-handling systems I know ... whistle Think 300 orders per second.


Amazon did over 25k per minute and that was two years ago.



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Bum Kim
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Wait, are they putting up all 30K for sale on Oct. 13 or just the 15K? I thought they were splitting the sales.
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Bruno D
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elitusprime wrote:
teg2 wrote:
MAJBrown22 wrote:
First, no servers in the world could process 30,000 orders within seconds or minutes and I suspect not even an hour.


What ? Processing 30,000 orders is a drop in the bucket for some order-handling systems I know ... whistle Think 300 orders per second.


Amazon did over 25k per minute and that was two years ago.





... and that is what they actually sold, I'm pretty sure their systems are prepared to handle even more than that.
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fortheloveofdice
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One of the largest first print runs I know of (although Cool Mini or Not must have beat this) is Scythe. They needed 21,000 for kickstarter and made an additional 5,000 for retail. There was a lot of excitement and it sold out very quickly and they quickly made another print run. But that 5,000 for retail was made with a lot of preorders as indicators of demand. Print run sizes for new games are more often in the 100-3,000 range.

So yeah, 30,000 units for a first run is a bit risky but Riot can afford the risk. Will the LoL fan base who will want copies? I have no idea given the price point. People are playing a free game yes - and many will seriously balk - but others are probably spending that in-game every month anyway given how much money Riot is raking in.

Reference for print run comments above: Kickstarter Lesson #184: How Many Units Should You Make?
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Bruno D
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bumyong wrote:
Wait, are they putting up all 30K for sale on Oct. 13 or just the 15K? I thought they were splitting the sales.


I understood they may be taking orders for the 30k, but splitting delivery between Oct and Dec (but I might very well be wrong here)
 
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fortheloveofdice
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To answer above:

Yes, it is a split run, 15k now and 15k soon.

As for transactions per second and can their system/servers handle it:

I'm sure Paypal and the credit card processing providers can handle it. And if Riot can handle login servers with stability and have an existing, proven web store, then they have the skills and knowledge and hardware and software to handle that many orders in a very short period of time with their backend systems. They won't do an LoL content update near then, they'll know to spin up AWS servers if they are using them (unlikely) or use them for capacity overflow, the'll have people on call, etc.
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William Chew
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fortheloveofdice wrote:
One of the largest first print runs I know of (although Cool Mini or Not must have beat this) is Scythe. They needed 21,000 for kickstarter and made an additional 5,000 for retail. There was a lot of excitement and it sold out very quickly and they quickly made another print run. But that 5,000 for retail was made with a lot of preorders as indicators of demand. Print run sizes for new games are more often in the 100-3,000 range.

So yeah, 30,000 units for a first run is a bit risky but Riot can afford the risk. Will the LoL fan base who will want copies? I have no idea given the price point. People are playing a free game yes - and many will seriously balk - but others are probably spending that in-game every month anyway given how much money Riot is raking in.

Reference for print run comments above: Kickstarter Lesson #184: How Many Units Should You Make?


Scythe is a much more niche product than this. While Jamey Stegmaier is a hero of the BGG euro community his draw ends there. And vastly overpriced in comparison. If Scythe could go 26k immediately this will sell out both 15k sales within minutes or seconds. The hype train on this has exceeded everything in the history of board games and it has sexy miniatures and tie ins to a very popular video game to boot.
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Joe D
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It will probably sell out in the first couple of days, mainly due to the hype and positive reviews, but more will be available soon enough based upon their statement they will keep printing it. I think the argument of, "LoL has millions of players, if even x percent of them want to buy it..." doesn't hold much weight though. Most of those do not follow board gaming reviewers. No one really knows how many people playing a free to play video game would want a $75 board game. I suspect most of those initial hype sales will be established board gamers, people known to have a acquisition disorder for collecting things they may never even play. This does not fit the video gamer mold. Also $75 is a lot of money for a board game to non-boardgamers.

All that said, while I'd like to get an early copy, I'm sure I will eventually get it even if it sells out. The plus side to getting a later copy is they work out any manufacturing issues. Part of me hopes this games does really well and sells out to LoL players. That result would mean a large influx of new boardgamers into this wonderful hobby, and that would be better for everyone. Riot games really should be commended for taking a gamer first approach instead of a business first approach. They have potentially done us all a wonderful service, and turned some publisher orthodoxy on its ear. I hope the game is wildly successful for them.
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Jean-Philippe Thériault
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MonkeyKnifeFight wrote:


Scythe is a much more niche product than this.


All board games are niche products.

MonkeyKnifeFight wrote:
While Jamey Stegmaier is a hero of the BGG euro community his draw ends there. And vastly overpriced in comparison.


75$ might as well be 200$ to the LoL crowd. It's just those of us in the boardgamer bubble who think 75$ is a steal. And it is... based on the contents... but most people outside our hobby would question why they couldn't just cut down on the materials and make this a more reasonable, say, 40$ instead of giving us the luxury treatment, even if the cost is ridiculously low for people who routinely drop 150$+ on CMON Kickstarters.

MonkeyKnifeFight wrote:
If Scythe could go 26k immediately this will sell out both 15k sales within minutes or seconds.


Scythe's 26K was not immediate, it was over a month of KS.

MonkeyKnifeFight wrote:
The hype train on this has exceeded everything in the history of board games and it has sexy miniatures and tie ins to a very popular video game to boot.


Again, I think people have a vastly overestimated idea of the overlap between LoL fans and boardgame fans. As for the hype train, it starts high due to them artificially keeping us all in the dark and simultaneously announcing everywhere at once, but I don't see it being a sustainable hype like Scythe or Pandemic: Legacy.
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Brent Brown
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I voted for 24 hours for the first 15k...

But I also asked for the morning of 10/13 off from work... so that shows how confident I am of my vote...
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fortheloveofdice
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I could see parents and such buying copies for gifts for LoL people. But I don't think that will amount to a huge volume, and that would probably translate to sales later, not at launch.
 
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Philip Mazzone
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I feel that most LoL players are just that, video game enthusiasts. They might say "Oh cool, this video game is getting a board game spinoff" .. But if they dont play board games, then they arent going to be interested... Even with one set in their favorite universe.

I'll be online that morning trying to get a copy. But I think there will be plenty to go around and will last thru til the weekend at least.

cool
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Reverend Uncle Bastard
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Let's take some actual numbers from LoL. In January 2014 they had 67 million active monthly players. So if 15,000 boardgamers and approximately 1 in every 5000 LoL players buy it, that is the entire 30,000 print run. Will it sell out in seconds, I doubt it, but within a day or two, pretty sure the first 15,000 will be gone.

Curious to watch this and see how it goes. The "will it sell out" conversation is only going to drive people to order early. What I do think can be predicted accurately is that most of the initial sales will happen in the first two hours, then the rate of sales will drop off quickly.

The entire plan is genius marketing to increase brand awareness of LoL among boardgamers though. Look at the instant hype created here on BGG! Kudos to their marketing department, they definitely tapped into the mind of BGG in creating their game. Solidly tested, beautiful components, reasonable pricing, interesting mechanisms, it was all clearly a labour of love for those involved. It has been fascinating watching this launch unfold.
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Jonas Vanschooren
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Don't underestimate the power of online game fans.
The hardcore community (and this is a big group with a game like LoL) is really incredibly passionate about "their" game.
Alot of these players spend alot of money just on cosmetic skins for their favorite characters.
Granted some will pass on this straight away but alot of them will really want this.
How many, that's hard to say but I would say more then 15k, so I picked 10min.

I do think that their second run of 15K will not sell out as fast, but I see that going in a few days (maybe weeks, but doubt it will take that long).

We'll see how it goes, only time can tell.
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Jean-Philippe Thériault
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Spukky wrote:
The hardcore community (and this is a big group with a game like LoL) is really incredibly passionate about "their" game.


I might agree with this argument if this was "LoL as boardgame". Instead it's basically a completely different entity with a tiny amount of LoL lore in it. So it's not "their game" it's "a distant, barely related adaptation of some lore part of their game".

I think my best example of how the size of a computer game player base is unrelated to the success of its derived products is how pretty much no one picked up the World of Warcraft TCG or miniature games that weren't already into TCGs or tactical and/or collectible minis games. TCGs is much less niche than board games as a market. CMGs arguably were less niche back then as well (though it's less clear cut than TCGs).

If even a fraction of the WoW player base had picked up WoW miniatures, I'd wager I'd still be playing it today (and still selling tournament-won Spectral Tigers or other epic mounts to suckers with too much money).
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