$20.00
$15.00
$5.00
Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
33 Posts
1 , 2  Next »   | 

BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Religion, Sex, and Politics

Subject: You all love Nate Silver right? rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-f...

Hmmm, things have changed quite a bit...

Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.

1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Born To Lose, Live To Win
United States
Cleveland Heights
Ohio
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I don't love him.

He can only show what might happen if an election could occur today. There is no predicting what will be said and how the public will react before November. It's why I hate early voting, you shouldn't make your decision until the very last day. You might regret it.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Damian
United States
Enfield
Connecticut
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
He had Trump in the lead for about a week in July. Trump had a huge dip right after and he's been slowing climbing back up.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steven Woodcock
United States
Unspecified
Unspecified
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-f...

Hmmm, things have changed quite a bit...

Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.



Wow...I'm impressed he's sobering up a bit from the kool-aid. Thanks Dashi; good post.

Still a heck of a fight left, but man what an election!



Ferret
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
The polls also only show the likelihood of an event occurring.

Every poll shows that either has a chance to win.

Trump has come up in the polls lately, but even without that, anyone would be a fool to count out any candidate.

What I do dislike is that someone can act like Trump and people think that is a good person to have as a role model for children.

Picking on people and insulting them will no longer be frowned upon - you need to do it to be like Trump; find that kid who is different and let them know it - yay free speech.

What I worry about almost as much as anything is having Trump speech being seen by the future of America - seeing their chief role model talk like he does day after day.

And if you feel that isn't true, then when your child asks why Trump can do it but they can't, what do you say?
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
Even if a poll showed Trump at 10% chance vs Clinton 90%, I would still take it seriously because that's 10% too high for me.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
xuzuthor wrote:
The polls also only show the likelihood of an event occurring.

Every poll shows that either has a chance to win.

Trump has come up in the polls lately, but even without that, anyone would be a fool to count out any candidate.

What I do dislike is that someone can act like Trump and people think that is a good person to have as a role model for children.

Picking on people and insulting them will no longer be frowned upon - you need to do it to be like Trump; find that kid who is different and let them know it - yay free speech.

What I worry about almost as much as anything is having Trump speech being seen by the future of America - seeing their chief role model talk like he does day after day.

And if you feel that isn't true, then when your child asks why Trump can do it but they can't, what do you say?


Gawd......
Were you ever a kid?
Kids will be fucking assholes no matter who is president.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Clinton Smith
United States
Port Arthur
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb

That's not the latest vote projection. Currently, 538's three different models have Trump 10, 11, and 14 electoral votes short of the 270 needed for victory. Trump is 1.4, 1.5, and 1.7 percentage points behind Clinton in the popular vote at the moment.

But yeah, it's a damned close contest.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
flag msg tools
admin
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.


I'm glad you are using data from one of the aggregation sites, rather than Single polls. But you should really go to the source and not read it filtered through a partisan hack site like the Washington times.

Silver has three models: polls+, polls only, and nowcast. None of those have Trump 6 EV away from a win, so I'm not sure where they get that. But the race has gotten very tight.



3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Carl Parsons
United States
Carrollton
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
xuzuthor wrote:
The polls also only show the likelihood of an event occurring.

Every poll shows that either has a chance to win.

Trump has come up in the polls lately, but even without that, anyone would be a fool to count out any candidate.

What I do dislike is that someone can act like Trump and people think that is a good person to have as a role model for children.

Picking on people and insulting them will no longer be frowned upon - you need to do it to be like Trump; find that kid who is different and let them know it - yay free speech.

What I worry about almost as much as anything is having Trump speech being seen by the future of America - seeing their chief role model talk like he does day after day.

And if you feel that isn't true, then when your child asks why Trump can do it but they can't, what do you say?


Gawd......
Were you ever a kid?
Kids will be fucking assholes no matter who is president.


This is true. You can ask the other kids in his class and they'll tell you the same.
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
xuzuthor wrote:
The polls also only show the likelihood of an event occurring.

Every poll shows that either has a chance to win.

Trump has come up in the polls lately, but even without that, anyone would be a fool to count out any candidate.

What I do dislike is that someone can act like Trump and people think that is a good person to have as a role model for children.

Picking on people and insulting them will no longer be frowned upon - you need to do it to be like Trump; find that kid who is different and let them know it - yay free speech.

What I worry about almost as much as anything is having Trump speech being seen by the future of America - seeing their chief role model talk like he does day after day.

And if you feel that isn't true, then when your child asks why Trump can do it but they can't, what do you say?


Gawd......
Were you ever a kid?
Kids will be fucking assholes no matter who is president.


I completely agree, and yes I was.

But, you can't pretend that electing a person like Trump means nothing.

When you talk about potential for children, you say things such as X could be the next president. It's the go-to statement.

Why? Because the President is the person that is the role model of much of the nation. At times perhaps partisanship stops someone from using the current president as that role model, but I do not see how Republicans could even encourage their child to use him as a role model.

No president is completely pure, but how they act publicly has almost always been role model worthy - no matter which side you're on (maybe except a few specific occasions). Trump isn't that role model and never approaches it unless he is on teleprompter.

And, I gave Trump the benefit of the doubt for a long while, but I have very little doubt that he can become that person.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
xuzuthor wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
xuzuthor wrote:
The polls also only show the likelihood of an event occurring.

Every poll shows that either has a chance to win.

Trump has come up in the polls lately, but even without that, anyone would be a fool to count out any candidate.

What I do dislike is that someone can act like Trump and people think that is a good person to have as a role model for children.

Picking on people and insulting them will no longer be frowned upon - you need to do it to be like Trump; find that kid who is different and let them know it - yay free speech.

What I worry about almost as much as anything is having Trump speech being seen by the future of America - seeing their chief role model talk like he does day after day.

And if you feel that isn't true, then when your child asks why Trump can do it but they can't, what do you say?


Gawd......
Were you ever a kid?
Kids will be fucking assholes no matter who is president.


I completely agree, and yes I was.

But, you can't pretend that electing a person like Trump means nothing.

When you talk about potential for children, you say things such as X could be the next president. It's the go-to statement.

Why? Because the President is the person that is the role model of much of the nation. At times perhaps partisanship stops someone from using the current president as that role model, but I do not see how Republicans could even encourage their child to use him as a role model.

No president is completely pure, but how they act publicly has almost always been role model worthy - no matter which side you're on (maybe except a few specific occasions). Trump isn't that role model and never approaches it unless he is on teleprompter.

And, I gave Trump the benefit of the doubt for a long while, but I have very little doubt that he can become that person.


So when clinton is fucking a really young intern in the oval office, what does that do?
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
xuzuthor wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
xuzuthor wrote:
The polls also only show the likelihood of an event occurring.

Every poll shows that either has a chance to win.

Trump has come up in the polls lately, but even without that, anyone would be a fool to count out any candidate.

What I do dislike is that someone can act like Trump and people think that is a good person to have as a role model for children.

Picking on people and insulting them will no longer be frowned upon - you need to do it to be like Trump; find that kid who is different and let them know it - yay free speech.

What I worry about almost as much as anything is having Trump speech being seen by the future of America - seeing their chief role model talk like he does day after day.

And if you feel that isn't true, then when your child asks why Trump can do it but they can't, what do you say?


Gawd......
Were you ever a kid?
Kids will be fucking assholes no matter who is president.


I completely agree, and yes I was.

But, you can't pretend that electing a person like Trump means nothing.

When you talk about potential for children, you say things such as X could be the next president. It's the go-to statement.

Why? Because the President is the person that is the role model of much of the nation. At times perhaps partisanship stops someone from using the current president as that role model, but I do not see how Republicans could even encourage their child to use him as a role model.

No president is completely pure, but how they act publicly has almost always been role model worthy - no matter which side you're on (maybe except a few specific occasions). Trump isn't that role model and never approaches it unless he is on teleprompter.

And, I gave Trump the benefit of the doubt for a long while, but I have very little doubt that he can become that person.


So when clinton is fucking a really young intern in the oval office, what does that do?


It's not good and it rightfully frowned upon. I can admit that.

Can you admit that Trump should not speak as he does?
2 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
flag msg tools
admin
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
So when clinton is fucking a really young intern in the oval office, what does that do.

I suppose if she's healthy enough for that, she's healthy enough to be Pres!
10 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
bjlillo wrote:
In a close election, I think Trump's crap ground game is going to bite him in the ass. I wouldn't be surprised if he under-performs polls by a percentage point or two.


Don't underestimate the online and talk radio propaganda mills.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Hall
msg tools
Not a fan of Nate, but I'm an admirer of Duke Silver.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
Perception counts more than facts, which is why even once proven wrong definitively, people continue to repeat bogus information.

And, it works. The misinformation becomes fact in their minds.

I just can't think of when so much misinformation on so many topics has been flying around.

And, it's the fault of not vetting facts before airing them in hopes of getting the story first.

No matter what, no matter which side you support (or neither), no one can say that this election shows well on our nation.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike Stiles
United States
California
flag msg tools
Shaman
mbmbmb
This is weirdly transparent:

The usual suspects are transparently doing what they're complaining about -within the same breath.

Heavily implying that the left would only trust 538 if its predictions went their way and almost immediately commenting on Silver "no longer drinking the kool-aid" is just intensely absurd.

Get it in your heads, most of the world isn't like you guys.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Agent J
United States
Coldwater
Michigan
flag msg tools
He's looking real sharp in his 1940's fedora. He's got nerves of steel, an iron will, and several other metal-themed attributes. His fur is water tight and he's always up for a fight.
badge
He's a semi-aquatic egg-laying mammal of action. He's a furry little flat-foot who'll never flinch from a fray. He's got more than just mad skills, he's got a beaver tail and a bill.
mbmbmbmbmb
Everyone voting for Johnson could swing the election either way. Of course, you'd just be swinging it to terrible choices, so might as well just stick with Johnson.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-f...

Hmmm, things have changed quite a bit...

Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.



Why would that make me dislike Nate Silver? He updates his projections in light of more evidence.

You should try it sometime!
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
mbmbmbmbmb
Jythier wrote:
Everyone voting for Johnson could swing the election either way. Of course, you'd just be swinging it to terrible choices, so might as well just stick with Johnson.


If by "everyone" you mean "about one out of ten people" then that's true!

Although if you want to vote for vaccines causing autism and you don't like Trump, Stein's your gal! (Look out for wifi too!)
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Fox
United States
Richardson
Texas
flag msg tools
Question everything.
mbmbmbmbmb
Terwox wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-f...

Hmmm, things have changed quite a bit...

Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.



Why would that make me dislike Nate Silver? He updates his projections in light of more evidence.

You should try it sometime!

Welcome to the world of the RSP right. Anyone who presents facts that are opposed to your opinions must be your enemy. Anyone who says anything that matches your opinion, regardless of the correctness, is your friend. Thus TheDashi expects that liberals would turn on Nate Silver when he presents facts that don't say what liberals want to hear.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
sfox wrote:
Terwox wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-f...

Hmmm, things have changed quite a bit...

Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.



Why would that make me dislike Nate Silver? He updates his projections in light of more evidence.

You should try it sometime!

Welcome to the world of the RSP right. Anyone who presents facts that are opposed to your opinions must be your enemy. Anyone who says anything that matches your opinion, regardless of the correctness, is your friend. Thus TheDashi expects that liberals would turn on Nate Silver when he presents facts that don't say what liberals want to hear.


No. I just wonder if you hold his info in as high regard when the numbers shift to this point.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Fox
United States
Richardson
Texas
flag msg tools
Question everything.
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
sfox wrote:
Terwox wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-f...

Hmmm, things have changed quite a bit...

Quote:
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.



Why would that make me dislike Nate Silver? He updates his projections in light of more evidence.

You should try it sometime!

Welcome to the world of the RSP right. Anyone who presents facts that are opposed to your opinions must be your enemy. Anyone who says anything that matches your opinion, regardless of the correctness, is your friend. Thus TheDashi expects that liberals would turn on Nate Silver when he presents facts that don't say what liberals want to hear.


No. I just wonder if you hold his info in as high regard when the numbers shift to this point.

I like Nate because he attempts to deliver accurate information, even despite the number of polls which are heavily biased by one party or the other. If only you Trump lovers felt the same way about facts, but then again, if that were true, you wouldn't be Republicans.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xuzu Horror
United States
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
It doesn't matter what his numbers say only how he got his numbers.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
1 , 2  Next »   | 
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.