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Subject: A vote for Johnson is a vote for Trump? rss

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Daniel
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As predicted, Johnson and Stein are taking votes away from Hillary as progressives are disillusioned with the Democratic Party. Voters under age 35 are going third party.
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Donald Trump closed to within a hair of Hillary Clinton in the race for president this week, and younger voters are a major reason why the GOP nominee’s prospects are rising.
That’s not because young voters like Trump: On the contrary, they are poised to reject him in record numbers.
But millennial voters aren’t getting behind Clinton to the extent she needs to put the race away, instead choosing one of the third-party candidates at rates that far exceed their older counterparts.
This week’s Quinnipiac University poll demonstrated their impact. In the initial ballot test, Clinton led Trump by 5 points — one of her better results this week. She led by 21 points among voters aged 18-34, 55 percent to 34 percent — roughly the same margin by which President Barack Obama won young voters in 2012.
But many of those young voters abandoned Clinton in a subsequent question that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and it costs Clinton. Her 5-point lead over Trump dwindles to just 2 points, 41 percent to 39 percent.
Among that same 18-34 age cohort, Clinton wins only 31 percent of the vote on the four-way ballot, barely more than Trump (26 percent) or Johnson (29 percent). Even Stein, who is at 4 percent in the poll overall, wins 15 percent of younger voters.
The same phenomenon doesn’t happen with older voters. Among seniors aged 65 and older, Trump leads Clinton by 9 points in the head-to-head ballot test, 51 percent to 42 percent. And it barely changes on the four-way ballot: Trump’s lead stands at 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. Johnson, who wins nearly three-in-10 millennial voters, is only at 4 percent among seniors — and Stein is only at 1 percent.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/5-political-numbers-to-watch/2...
 
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson.
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Daniel
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ejmowrer wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson.


Indeed.
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Greg Michealson
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I think all registered Republicans should vote for Johnson this year.
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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dandechino wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson.


Indeed.


FEEL the Johnson!
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Jon Badolato
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A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.
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Mike Stiles
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jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


Goes back to my favorite bit from this election: "Trump might trigger the REAL revolution we need by being awful! There's no chance that wouldn't totally explode in our faces!"
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Mike Stiles
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ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.


Thanks for deciding what's rational for everyone ><
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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windsagio wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.


Thanks for deciding what's rational for everyone ><


I wouldn't be surprised if there are literally more people thinking or saying "I would vote for Johnson, but I don't want to waste my vote" than people who are looking forward to voting for Trump.

The only reason he's not in the debates is because people allow the Republican and Democratic parties, who have a HUGE conflict of interest in this, tell them that it's in their best interest to vote for someone they don't want to vote for.
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jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


I keep hearing that Hillary still has these leads in the polls, even if it has shrunk.

So why do I need to vote for her again?
 
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Jon Badolato
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ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.


Not really. It may feel good or comforting to tell yourself that, but in all reality he is currently polling at around ten percent in even his best states. His political rallies have a few dozens or a hundred to two hundred people attending. There will be people who will vote for Hillary or Trump because they actually like or prefer that particular candidate. So while a vote for Johnson may make one feel they have chosen the best or most sane candidate it still fundamentally amounts to a higher probability that Trump would win without ever seeing the satisfaction of Johnson becoming President. Whoever votes Johnson will make it more likely that come January 20th they will be watching Trump getting inaugurated. And they could say they had a big part in that !
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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jonb wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.


Not really. It may feel good or comforting to tell yourself that, but in all reality he is currently polling at around ten percent in even his best states. His political rallies have a few dozens or a hundred to two hundred people attending. There will be people who will vote for Hillary or Trump because they actually like or prefer that particular candidate. So while a vote for Johnson may make one feel they have chosen the best or most sane candidate it still fundamentally amounts to a higher probability that Trump would win without ever seeing the satisfaction of Johnson becoming President. Whoever votes Johnson will make it more likely that come January 20th they will be watching Trump getting inaugurated. And they could say they had a big part in that !


It's actually much more nuanced than that. And you're wrong. There is a self fulfilling prophecy that he's not viable, so the polls show that he isn't viable. Some people don't even know there are other options, because the Republican and Democratic parties do a very good job of hiding that from people or making them feel bad about considering it.
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Chapel
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A vote for Johnson is really a no vote. He has zero chance of winning, so staying home would have the same affect.

Which is fine. I don't think in this race it'll send a "clear" message of a third party contender, and the numbers just won't be anywhere close. It'll be more of the dislike of the current selection, but that is a message I could as easily send by staying home and drinking a six pack.

And really, a Presidential race is a piss poor place to throw in for a third party, with a congress who won't work with them anyway.

Third party needs to gain traction the local and state level before running the main event.
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Mac Mcleod
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The only significant thing that could occur is that the libertarians could get more funding for the next election.

But being libertarians they will not use it in an organized way.

---
As I said elsewhere. There are states where Johnson will swing the vote away from trump and states where Johnson will swing the vote away from clinton.

 
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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Well, I'll be voting for Johnson, and you all can kiss my ass with your guilt trips and broken logic. My vote is the vote for the person I most want to win. I'm not going to vote for someone I don't want to win. That's absurd.

And I'm not going to feel guilty about it. My vote matters as much as any other single vote. Exactly the same amount, actually.
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Jon Badolato
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ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.


Not really. It may feel good or comforting to tell yourself that, but in all reality he is currently polling at around ten percent in even his best states. His political rallies have a few dozens or a hundred to two hundred people attending. There will be people who will vote for Hillary or Trump because they actually like or prefer that particular candidate. So while a vote for Johnson may make one feel they have chosen the best or most sane candidate it still fundamentally amounts to a higher probability that Trump would win without ever seeing the satisfaction of Johnson becoming President. Whoever votes Johnson will make it more likely that come January 20th they will be watching Trump getting inaugurated. And they could say they had a big part in that !


It's actually much more nuanced than that. And you're wrong. There is a self fulfilling prophecy that he's not viable, so the polls show that he isn't viable. Some people don't even know there are other options, because the Republican and Democratic parties do a very good job of hiding that from people or making them feel bad about considering it.


It's reality. The fact that some people dont know there are other options does not bode well for those same people actually voting for him. The simple reality is that he has no chance of winning. I can see it as some kind of protest vote but that might givevlittlevsatisfaction if it results in Trump being sworn in.
 
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Jon Badolato
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ejmowrer wrote:
Well, I'll be voting for Johnson, and you all can kiss my ass with your guilt trips and broken logic. My vote is the vote for the person I most want to win. I'm not going to vote for someone I don't want to win. That's absurd.

And I'm not going to feel guilty about it. My vote matters as much as any other single vote. Exactly the same amount, actually.


I applaud your fortitude do do what feel is best, but maintain that pragmatically speaking it could likely be a lose-lose scenario if Trump ends up getting elected as a result of Johnson votes.
 
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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jonb wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


He has a perfectly good chance if people would act rationally.


Not really. It may feel good or comforting to tell yourself that, but in all reality he is currently polling at around ten percent in even his best states. His political rallies have a few dozens or a hundred to two hundred people attending. There will be people who will vote for Hillary or Trump because they actually like or prefer that particular candidate. So while a vote for Johnson may make one feel they have chosen the best or most sane candidate it still fundamentally amounts to a higher probability that Trump would win without ever seeing the satisfaction of Johnson becoming President. Whoever votes Johnson will make it more likely that come January 20th they will be watching Trump getting inaugurated. And they could say they had a big part in that !


It's actually much more nuanced than that. And you're wrong. There is a self fulfilling prophecy that he's not viable, so the polls show that he isn't viable. Some people don't even know there are other options, because the Republican and Democratic parties do a very good job of hiding that from people or making them feel bad about considering it.


It's reality. The fact that some people dont know there are other options does not bode well for those same people actually voting for him. The simple reality is that he has no chance of winning. I can see it as some kind of protest vote but that might givevlittlevsatisfaction if it results in Trump being sworn in.


Like with the banking system, perception IS reality. The only reason it's reality is that people perceive it's reality, because people like you keep saying over and over again that it is reality. There is nothing physically stopping it from not being reality. Nothing at all. There are millions upon millions of people who don't want to vote for one of the major parties, but will do so because they are guilted into it by the major parties. There are millions upon millions more that will watch the debate, without Johnson, and not realize there is someone else they might rather vote for.

Donald Trump has a SIXTY percent unfavorable rating. 3/5ths of Republicans don't like him and don't want him to win. But they will vote for him because of the perception that there is no other way. That's all it is is a perception.

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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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jonb wrote:
ejmowrer wrote:
Well, I'll be voting for Johnson, and you all can kiss my ass with your guilt trips and broken logic. My vote is the vote for the person I most want to win. I'm not going to vote for someone I don't want to win. That's absurd.

And I'm not going to feel guilty about it. My vote matters as much as any other single vote. Exactly the same amount, actually.


I applaud your fortitude do do what feel is best, but maintain that pragmatically speaking it could likely be a lose-lose scenario if Trump ends up getting elected as a result of Johnson votes.


That would be unfortunate, but I'm not going to vote for someone I don't want to win in order to stop someone from winning who I don't want to win. It's insanity. Why do we keep doing it to ourselves? Don't answer that. I know the answer.
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Jon Badolato
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Quote:
There is nothing physically stopping it from not being reality. Nothing at all


Sure there is ! There are millions of people who when polled right now less than two months from the election that they will vote for Hillary or Trump and not Johnson. And many of them will do so because that candidate is their preferred choice. I would venture to guess that the sheer number of people who will vote for the mainstream candidates because they want to do so and see them as the best candidate still vastly outnumber the people who will vote for Johnson for any reason. That is in all reality a big obstacle.

Think about it. You're saying there is no real obstacle for Johnson when polls show that over 85 percent of the electorate show no propensity to vote for him when asked. That's a pretty real and major obstacle.
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Jon Badolato
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COMPNOR wrote:
jonb wrote:
A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson, but since he has no actual chance at being elected President it also increases the chance that Trump wins over Hillary, thereby becoming President. There might not be much satisfaction in voting for Johnson only to see Trump win as a result. It's a Phyrric victory. You'll win the battle, and lose the war. YMMV, but really shouldn't if you're thinking clearly.


I keep hearing that Hillary still has these leads in the polls, even if it has shrunk.

So why do I need to vote for her again?


You don't ! You can vote Trump or Johnson. Good luck with that !
 
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Paul W
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Johnson is not going to win the election. However, the more people vote for third party candidates, the more rational it becomes to vote for third party candidates. There's never going to be an election in our system where a third party candidate suddenly jumps into the thick of things, so if you think the two party system is producing unacceptable options, you play for the long game and start the ball rolling.
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Jon Badolato
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fizzmore wrote:
Johnson is not going to win the election. However, the more people vote for third party candidates, the more rational it becomes to vote for third party candidates. There's never going to be an election in our system where a third party candidate suddenly jumps into the thick of things, so if you think the two party system is producing unacceptable options, you play for the long game and start the ball rolling.


I think the sentiment is great but agree with the above poster who believes that third party candidates and a third party system needs to achieve some measure of success at the state level before it will make any headway in the national arena.
 
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