$30.00
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
The big news is that the polls plus forecast have finally met the polls only forecast and the nowcast.

59.X Clinton 285ev 45% popular vote
40.X Trump 252 ev 43% popular vote

Looking at florida, 538 thinks trump's percentage will rise there from now until the election. Currently it's 46.2% T to 45.4% C.

The polls 538 gives a higher quality rating show trump ahead by +1. There are polls that show clinton at +3 but they have a lower quality rating.

----

Princeton Wang

As of September 22, 12:04PM EDT:
Snapshot (140 state polls): Clinton 293, Trump 245 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +1.6%
Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 70%, Bayesian 80%
Senate snapshot (47 polls): Dem+Ind: 49, GOP: 51, Meta-margin: R +0.7%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 55%

The Clinton Nov. win probabilities are down from 90%+ less than 30 days ago.

The main interesting difference is they still show florida as a toss up and unpredictable. From earlier in the race, florida is a key state in the election due to the number of electoral votes.

---

Now a brief message. I think trump is a terrible candidate. I think he'll plunder the country for his personal wealth like a 3rd world dictator and he'll enable a lot of bad people while he's in office.

That said, IF he is elected I will give him the respect that the office deserves. I will not disparage a sitting president even if he is a narcissistic sociopathic idiot. I can say that now because he's still just a candidate.

4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
That said, IF he is elected I will give him the respect that the office deserves. I will not disparage a sitting president even if he is a narcissistic sociopathic idiot. I can say that now because he's still just a candidate.


You never said anything bad about Bush while he was in office?

Or Obama?

Though I'd like a world where we treated the president with respect, that stopped happening before I was born.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Terwox wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
That said, IF he is elected I will give him the respect that the office deserves. I will not disparage a sitting president even if he is a narcissistic sociopathic idiot. I can say that now because he's still just a candidate.


You never said anything bad about Bush while he was in office?

Or Obama?

Though I'd like a world where we treated the president with respect, that stopped happening before I was born.


I can't promise that (who knows when I'm drinking) but it is a goal I strive for. Respecting the office of the presidency is part of what makes our country functional. It's part of makes our country who we are. It's a value we should not lose.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Terwox wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
That said, IF he is elected I will give him the respect that the office deserves. I will not disparage a sitting president even if he is a narcissistic sociopathic idiot. I can say that now because he's still just a candidate.


You never said anything bad about Bush while he was in office?

Or Obama?

Though I'd like a world where we treated the president with respect, that stopped happening before I was born.


I can't promise that (who knows when I'm drinking) but it is a goal I strive for. Respecting the office of the presidency is part of what makes our country functional. It's part of makes our country who we are. It's a value we should not lose.


Though I agree, I still assert that that value has been gone for a long time.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Welcome Rolling Stones
Latvia
Bullshit
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls

I continue to have the utmost respect for our elected officials.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Stop worrying so much, Mac. Clinton has the best ground game that money can buy. Trump's is piggy-backing on the RNC Senate/congressional race staffing. That's a significant factor in any state listed as a toss-up.

RealClearPolitics has Clinton with 200 EV and at least a 4.7% lead in states with another 63 EV. That's awful good for a candidate who's been sinking in the polls for nearly a month. Trump still has to run the table everywhere else in order to win, including Florida and Ohio. Unless Clinton thoroughly blows it in the debates, she's still on track to win handily.

1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
SPIGuy wrote:
Stop worrying so much, Mac. Clinton has the best ground game that money can buy. Trump's is piggy-backing on the RNC Senate/congressional race staffing. That's a significant factor in any state listed as a toss-up.

RealClearPolitics has Clinton with 200 EV and at least a 4.7% lead in states with another 63 EV. That's awful good for a candidate who's been sinking in the polls for nearly a month. Trump still has to run the table everywhere else in order to win, including Florida and Ohio. Unless Clinton thoroughly blows it in the debates, she's still on track to win handily.



If trump doesn't punch clinton on stage, he wins the debates. Expectations are very low for trump.

I'll worry till she is sworn in.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Well today Clinton is back above 60% and trump is in the 39.X%.

PW is showing a 51GOP/49DEM senate tho which would mean 4 more years of the policy of "NO". We might even see a 7 judge supreme court if that happens.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Well today Clinton is back above 60% and trump is in the 39.X%.

PW is showing a 51GOP/49DEM senate tho which would mean 4 more years of the policy of "NO". We might even see a 7 judge supreme court if that happens.


I'm not sure -- some of those Republican senators would have terms ending two years later, and wouldn't necessarily be able to block things for two years w/o endangering their re-election. (Maybe.)

It's all hypothetical anyway -- we're gonna have President Trump after Hillary collapses during a debate! (Biden will be waiting in the rafters to swoop down to accept the nomination, but Mike Pence is waiting with an AR-15.)
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Ooh! Is Pence hiding in the projection booth? Has he ever been to North Korea? Does he sometimes like to play a little solitaire?



1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Something's happened...

Well today Clinton is back above 61% (286ev) and trump is in the 38% (251ev). She's up in the popular vote as well.

Odds at 538 now show 60% chance of democratic control of senate.

PW is still showing a 51GOP/49DEM senate.

---

Wondering what is changing the polls.

Random fluctuation?

Did some trump news stick?

Is it trump fatigue?

Is hillary starting to attract voters?

Could it be the increasing trend of the media to confront trump surrogates over lies immediately in the interview?

Has someone found the secret love tape of Trump on his knees in front of Putin?

Could it be the fact that Trump won't release the form letter that simply says "he's being audited" which means he may not be being audited at all!?!??

Are democrats actually starting to turn out to vote because they are shitting their pants over trumps recent polling improvement?

---

Based on prior dips, she could hit 70% again but fade into the election.

1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
John Hathorn
United States
San Antonio
Texas
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Something's happened...

Well today Clinton is back above 61% (286ev) and trump is in the 38% (251ev). She's up in the popular vote as well.

Odds at 538 now show 60% chance of democratic control of senate.

PW is still showing a 51GOP/49DEM senate.

---

Wondering what is changing the polls.

Random fluctuation?

Did some trump news stick?

Is it trump fatigue?

Is hillary starting to attract voters?

Could it be the increasing trend of the media to confront trump surrogates over lies immediately in the interview?

Has someone found the secret love tape of Trump on his knees in front of Putin?

Could it be the fact that Trump won't release the form letter that simply says "he's being audited" which means he may not be being audited at all!?!??

Are democrats actually starting to turn out to vote because they are shitting their pants over trumps recent polling improvement?

---

Based on prior dips, she could hit 70% again but fade into the election.


I definitely think that Trump stating that he finished the Birther controversy hurt him. He got blasted by the late night comedians quite thoroughly. I have FB friends who were Trump Anti-Clinton voters reposting those screeds.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
The debate is showing up in the numbers..

Trump has lost florida ("Miss Housekeeping?"
62.3% to 37.3%

NV, OH, NC are weaker now.

PN is stronger for Clinton now.

Clinton is back to 290 electoral votes.

---

Johnson has dropped to 7.8%. That's a big drop really quickly.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
MGK
Canada
Toronto
Ontario
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Johnson has dropped to 7.8%. That's a big drop really quickly.


Not really. He was always going to drop. His numbers were inflated because once we get closer to the election, more people make a serious decision to vote for one of the two major parties/educate themselves about the policies of the candidates, and his policies are not very popular.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Xander Fulton
United States
Lake Oswego
Oregon
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:

Johnson has dropped to 7.8%. That's a big drop really quickly.


The Aleppo thing was a bit of a zinger, but let's face it - most of the electorate following him wouldn't have known what Aleppo was, either.

Not being able to name one, single, foreign leader, though - I mean...wow. That's gonna leave a mark. That's basically exactly the sort of thing that someone 'tired of the major parties' and wondering if the third parties were serious candidates, or just fucking around, would see and make their decision for them.
6 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Boaty McBoatface
England
County of Essex
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
XanderF wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

Johnson has dropped to 7.8%. That's a big drop really quickly.


The Aleppo thing was a bit of a zinger, but let's face it - most of the electorate following him wouldn't have known what Aleppo was, either.

Not being able to name one, single, foreign leader, though - I mean...wow. That's gonna leave a mark. That's basically exactly the sort of thing that someone 'tired of the major parties' and wondering if the third parties were serious candidates, or just fucking around, would see and make their decision for them.
Not really, I suspect his voter base could not name a foreign leader they admire either.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Johnson has dropped to 7.8%. That's a big drop really quickly.


Pity.

My vote is largely symbolic of my dislike of our one-party system -- I'm not a libertarian, but I don't think wifi causes autism so I can't vote for Stein.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
John Hathorn
United States
San Antonio
Texas
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:

Johnson has dropped to 7.8%. That's a big drop really quickly.

His lack of foreign policy knowledge is making many voters queasy.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Clinton is up to 66.3% (297 EV), Trump is down to 33.6% (239 EV).

The debate stopped the bleeding in Florida and reversed it.
Clinton's gone from a 1-3% loss to a 6% win.

Quote:
The race in Florida continues to predictably split among the various demographic sub-groups. Clinton leads among Democrats (83%-10%), women (54%-36%), blacks (92%-1%), Hispanics (64%-29%).

Trump is ahead with Republicans (77%-13%), unaffiliated voters (41%-33%), men (49%-37%) and non-Hispanic whites (53%-33%).


1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Clinton is up to 66.3% (297 EV), Trump is down to 33.6% (239 EV).

The debate stopped the bleeding in Florida and reversed it.
Clinton's gone from a 1-3% loss to a 6% win.

Quote:
The race in Florida continues to predictably split among the various demographic sub-groups. Clinton leads among Democrats (83%-10%), women (54%-36%), blacks (92%-1%), Hispanics (64%-29%).

Trump is ahead with Republicans (77%-13%), unaffiliated voters (41%-33%), men (49%-37%) and non-Hispanic whites (53%-33%).




Clinton is up to 66.7% (299EV), Trump is down to 33.3% (238EV). It looks like Trump lost Nevada.

Johnson holds at 7.8%.

Princeton Wang now shows Clinton 305, Trump 233 EV but still republican control of the senate.
2 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike Stiles
United States
California
flag msg tools
badge
Shaman
Avatar
mbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
Thanks for updating these Mac :D
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
flag msg tools
admin
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:
Princeton Wang now shows Clinton 305, Trump 233 EV but still republican control of the senate.

There's something odd with his Senate prediction:



It shows the Democratic control probability at 59%, but the seats at 49-51
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Wendell
United States
Alexandria (temporarily)
Virginia
flag msg tools
All the little chicks with crimson lips, go...
badge
Hey, get your stinking cursor off my face! I got nukes, you know.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
jmilum wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Princeton Wang now shows Clinton 305, Trump 233 EV but still republican control of the senate.

There's something odd with his Senate prediction:



It shows the Democratic control probability at 59%, but the seats at 49-51


It's quantum.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Vincent Perry
United States
La Jolla
California
flag msg tools
Woot!
badge
I have overtext!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
maxo-texas wrote:

Now a brief message. I think trump is a terrible candidate. I think he'll plunder the country for his personal wealth like a 3rd world dictator and he'll enable a lot of bad people while he's in office.

That said, IF he is elected I will give him the respect that the office deserves. I will not disparage a sitting president even if he is a narcissistic sociopathic idiot. I can say that now because he's still just a candidate.



So give a racist asshole the means to enforce his racism on hundreds of millions of people, and he is all of a sudden worth of respect because he has "President" in front of his name? Are you joking?

The office of the president is a word. It's nothing. It's like putting a crown on his head. It doesn't make anyone more worthy of respect (and odds are it makes them less worthy as it turns them into megalomaniacal sociopaths.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Re: 538 / Princeton : Today's presidential polls
theodorelogan wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

Now a brief message. I think trump is a terrible candidate. I think he'll plunder the country for his personal wealth like a 3rd world dictator and he'll enable a lot of bad people while he's in office.

That said, IF he is elected I will give him the respect that the office deserves. I will not disparage a sitting president even if he is a narcissistic sociopathic idiot. I can say that now because he's still just a candidate.



So give a racist asshole the means to enforce his racism on hundreds of millions of people, and he is all of a sudden worth of respect because he has "President" in front of his name? Are you joking?

The office of the president is a word. It's nothing. It's like putting a crown on his head. It doesn't make anyone more worthy of respect (and odds are it makes them less worthy as it turns them into megalomaniacal sociopaths.


It's a fundamental feature of what has made america work. I'm sorry you don't feel that way.

I'm not respecting Trump. I'm respecting the office of the presidency and (the choice of a majority of americans really). When you lose that, there is a tendency towards civil instability and violence.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
1 , 2 , 3 , 4  Next »   | 
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.