$15.00
$20.00
$5.00
Just an example:

People who are afraid of flying (or using any kind of commercial transportation), are often told that their chance of survival is 99%, or 95% or whatever.

But in reality, the chance is always 50%.
Because you take this flight. This flight, this time.
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.

Am I the only one who feels about it like this?

What does it matter to me if 99% of all flights go smoothly?
MY flight can still crash.

I think this statistics jabbering is bullshit.

Do I look at this the wrong way?
Do statisticians think that they can convince people with those numbers, doesn't work for me, does it work for you?
1 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
R. Frazier
United States
West Sacramento
California
flag msg tools
A man learns little by little in battle. Take this battle experience and become a man who can’t be beaten
badge
This flag says we will fight until only our bones are left.
mbmbmbmbmb
Noooo, the odds of anything happening or not happening are not 50% just because there are two possibilities.

Some things are more likely than others. Sun comes out tomorrow: pretty likely. Sandworm eats you: not very likely.

Getting killed by jumping off a building: pretty likely. Commercial airplane you're on crashes: not very likely.
39 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Belgium
flag msg tools
Meaningless means there's a strong limit to how much I can mess up!
badge
This overtext is not in use.
mbmbmbmbmb
being wrote:
But in reality, the chance is always 50%.
Because you take this flight. This flight, this time.
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.


I have a 6-sided die here. If you want, we can do a bet, if it rolls a 6, you get $10. If it rolls anything else, I get $10 dollars.

I think this is fair. After all, the die will either roll 6 or not, so the chances are 50-50.
52 
 Thumb up
0.10
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Boaty McBoatface
England
County of Essex
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I think the word you are looking for is bollocks.
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
flag msg tools
admin
mbmbmbmbmb
Yes, it's BS.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
flag msg tools
admin
mbmbmbmbmb
being wrote:
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.

The probability of "safe" and "not safe" do not have to be equal, but if they are the only two choices, then they should sum to 1.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Fox
United States
Richardson
Texas
flag msg tools
Question everything.
mbmbmbmbmb
being wrote:
Just an example:

People who are afraid of flying (or using any kind of commercial transportation), are often told that their chance of survival is 99%, or 95% or whatever.

But in reality, the chance is always 50%.
Because you take this flight. This flight, this time.
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.

Am I the only one who feels about it like this?

What does it matter to me if 99% of all flights go smoothly?
MY flight can still crash.

I think this statistics jabbering is bullshit.

Do I look at this the wrong way?
Do statisticians think that they can convince people with those numbers, doesn't work for me, does it work for you?

You are clearly a moron, I assume you must also be a Republican?
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
sfox wrote:
being wrote:
Just an example:

People who are afraid of flying (or using any kind of commercial transportation), are often told that their chance of survival is 99%, or 95% or whatever.

But in reality, the chance is always 50%.
Because you take this flight. This flight, this time.
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.

Am I the only one who feels about it like this?

What does it matter to me if 99% of all flights go smoothly?
MY flight can still crash.

I think this statistics jabbering is bullshit.

Do I look at this the wrong way?
Do statisticians think that they can convince people with those numbers, doesn't work for me, does it work for you?

You are clearly a moron, I assume you must also be a Republican?


Hmmm, maybe the problem is YOU sfox.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Fox
United States
Richardson
Texas
flag msg tools
Question everything.
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
Hmmm, maybe the problem is YOU sfox.

Oh look, one of RSP's finest Trump supporters shows up to defend complete idiocy. No real surprise here.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
David Dearlove
United Kingdom
Isleworth
Middx
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb

Can I play poker against this guy please.
25 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
sfox wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Hmmm, maybe the problem is YOU sfox.

Oh look, one of RSP's finest Trump supporters shows up to defend complete idiocy. No real surprise here.


Meh, I don't support Trump.
I have defended him from frivolous bull shit though.

You yet again have nothing to back up the crap you are spewing, just call him an idiot. What is wrong with what he has said?
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Trey Chambers
United States
Houston
Texas
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
being wrote:
Just an example:

People who are afraid of flying (or using any kind of commercial transportation), are often told that their chance of survival is 99%, or 95% or whatever.

But in reality, the chance is always 50%.
Because you take this flight. This flight, this time.
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.

Am I the only one who feels about it like this?

What does it matter to me if 99% of all flights go smoothly?
MY flight can still crash.

I think this statistics jabbering is bullshit.

Do I look at this the wrong way?
Do statisticians think that they can convince people with those numbers, doesn't work for me, does it work for you?


Hi! Welcome to RSP! I see you chose to open with an idiotic diatribe. Risky move, but it appears to have paid off. Prepare to get dog-piled on, but with any luck you'll make some friends in the anti-vaxxer/abolish-all-currency contingent. Don't forget your free giftbag from a pretty legit source. Enjoy!
17 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Shampoo4you wrote:
being wrote:
Just an example:

People who are afraid of flying (or using any kind of commercial transportation), are often told that their chance of survival is 99%, or 95% or whatever.

But in reality, the chance is always 50%.
Because you take this flight. This flight, this time.
It either is safe or not.
At this point in life it is a 50% chance. Not more and not less.

Am I the only one who feels about it like this?

What does it matter to me if 99% of all flights go smoothly?
MY flight can still crash.

I think this statistics jabbering is bullshit.

Do I look at this the wrong way?
Do statisticians think that they can convince people with those numbers, doesn't work for me, does it work for you?


Hi! Welcome to RSP! I see you chose to open with an idiotic diatribe. Risky move, but it appears to have paid off. Prepare to get dog-piled on, but with any luck you'll make some friends in the anti-vaxxer/abolish-all-currency contingent. Don't forget your free giftbag from a pretty legit source. Enjoy!


So how many of you neck bearded monkey fucking mouth breathers are going to just say it is stupid and not explain why?
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Trey Chambers
United States
Houston
Texas
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:


So how many of you neck bearded monkey fucking mouth breathers are going to just say it is stupid and not explain why?


Two people have already explained it.

Is TheDashi about to make a friend? Ohhhh this is sooooo cute! modest
12 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Shampoo4you wrote:
TheDashi wrote:


So how many of you neck bearded monkey fucking mouth breathers are going to just say it is stupid and not explain why?


Two people have already explained it.

Is TheDashi about to make a friend? Ohhhh this is sooooo cute! modest


No, just observing that YOU fucksticks are the problem, not what you all want to place the blame on.

Just admit it, this is like every other forum.
And you leftist idiots will make yourselves look like shit bags at the drop of a hat.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Fox
United States
Richardson
Texas
flag msg tools
Question everything.
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
So how many of you neck bearded monkey fucking mouth breathers are going to just say it is stupid and not explain why?

Anyone with a grade school level understanding of statistics can see why the OP is a dumbass. So while I can understand why you don't see why the claim was absurd, everyone else certainly does. Also others have already supplied examples as to why the post was stupid, which apparently you missed or were unable to grasp.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
sfox wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
So how many of you neck bearded monkey fucking mouth breathers are going to just say it is stupid and not explain why?

Anyone with a grade school level understanding of statistics can see why the OP is a dumbass. So while I can understand why you don't see why the claim was absurd, everyone else certainly does. Also others have already supplied examples as to why the post was stupid, which apparently you missed or were unable to grasp.


It is wrong but not exactly absurd.
Sure, he got hung up on there are essentially two options on what happens with a plane flight, you either get there or you dont, and he misinterpreted that. But so what? He was just thinking about it in a different way and used that to get a wrong answer.
But I am sure you are right 100% of the time, right sfox?
At least we have confirmation that you really arent a discriminating asshole, you are just an asshole.

1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
I enjoy your comments so far.
Never been called a moron or dumbass up to now, believe or not.
It's alright.

So the example with the die was quite good actually, I even understand it, but it still doesn't help with my planecrash problem.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Being has been posting here since April. This is more like his 50th post than his 1st post.

I think a better response would have been to give an example or explain the problem with his reasoning without all the sarcasm and hostility.

Save that for Trump.



Things that make you feel old. Someone calling Pink "old".
Alecia Beth Moore was born September 8, 1979- a year after I graduated high school. soblue


3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
the manatee
United States
Burbank
California
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
The OP is conflating possibility with probability.
6 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Belgium
flag msg tools
Meaningless means there's a strong limit to how much I can mess up!
badge
This overtext is not in use.
mbmbmbmbmb
being wrote:
So the example with the die was quite good actually, I even understand it, but it still doesn't help with my planecrash problem.


What do you consider to be the relevant differences?
5 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Dolphinandrew wrote:
being wrote:
So the example with the die was quite good actually, I even understand it, but it still doesn't help with my planecrash problem.


What do you consider to be the relevant differences?


The sarcastic bullshit at the end?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mutton Chops
United Kingdom
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
being wrote:
I enjoy your comments so far.
Never been called a moron or dumbass up to now, believe or not.
It's alright.

So the example with the die was quite good actually, I even understand it, but it still doesn't help with my planecrash problem.


It really does.

Let's say that there is a very large population of 250,000 wild chickens living near a river. The chickens use the river for drinking water, and whatever else chickens do with water. Then, one day, a road is built along the river bank. The chickens keep crossing the road to get to the other side (where the river is). Trouble is, they keep getting squashed by vehicles. Amongst the chicken population, there's great concern about the risks of getting killed - chickens want to know how likely it is that they are going to get killed crossing the road. All the chickens move at the same speed, and, helpfully, all the vehicles do too, they're all the same size, traffic density is consistent and constant 24x7x365 (it's a very orderly road). So, chicken statisticians make a long-term study of the number of chickens getting killed. They watch over the course of a year. They discover that, on average, 2 chickens per day are getting killed crossing the road. Fortunately, the birth rate is such that, on average 2 chickens a day are being born, so the population is staying constant.

So, for any given journey by any given chicken, what is the chance of being killed: 1 in 2, or something else?
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mutton Chops
United Kingdom
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
mutton_chops wrote:
being wrote:
I enjoy your comments so far.
Never been called a moron or dumbass up to now, believe or not.
It's alright.

So the example with the die was quite good actually, I even understand it, but it still doesn't help with my planecrash problem.


It really does.

Let's say that there is a very large population of 250,000 wild chickens living near a river. The chickens use the river for drinking water, and whatever else chickens do with water. Then, one day, a road is built along the river bank. The chickens keep crossing the road to get to the other side (where the river is). Trouble is, they keep getting squashed by vehicles. Amongst the chicken population, there's great concern about the risks of getting killed - chickens want to know how likely it is that they are going to get killed crossing the road. All the chickens move at the same speed, and, helpfully, all the vehicles do too, they're all the same size, traffic density is consistent and constant 24x7x365 (it's a very orderly road). So, chicken statisticians make a long-term study of the number of chickens getting killed. They watch over the course of a year. They discover that, on average, 2 chickens per day are getting killed crossing the road. Fortunately, the birth rate is such that, on average 2 chickens a day are being born, so the population is staying constant.

So, for any given journey by any given chicken, what is the chance of being killed: 1 in 2, or something else?


Oh, I forgot to say the chickens all cross the road and back only once per day.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Belgium
flag msg tools
Meaningless means there's a strong limit to how much I can mess up!
badge
This overtext is not in use.
mbmbmbmbmb
TheDashi wrote:
Dolphinandrew wrote:
being wrote:
So the example with the die was quite good actually, I even understand it, but it still doesn't help with my planecrash problem.


What do you consider to be the relevant differences?


The sarcastic bullshit at the end?


What do you mean?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5  Next »  [6] | 
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.