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Subject: new game rss

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K S
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Tonawanda
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So, I got this game because it looked fun, but it might be a bit too long and heavy for my playgroup. I have heard that with the termination of the agreement between GW and FFG, this game can never be reprinted again. I have seen list prices rise, but is it actually selling at those prices? If so, then it may be more valuable to me to trade for something more likely to hit the table. Is this a bubble likely to burst soon and I should try to cash in while I can? I'd probably try to trade, not sell, so what is a fair trade value?
 
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Chad Egbert
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Re: Forbidden Stars new-in-shrink
On Amazon this week...

https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1648961/amazon-forbidden-st...

 
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Timothy D
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Re: Forbidden Stars new-in-shrink
It won't be worth much more than it's original value till probably another couple years or so when all the old stock runs out.
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Inappropriate Andy
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Re: Forbidden Stars new-in-shrink
Although FFG have to stop selling GW licensed games by February (I think?), I imagine that there are still shipments throughout different stages of production/supply - although it may be out of stock now, lumpy supply of small shipments may still filter through distributors until February.

We've seen some initial panic-buying that may have driven price up but I wouldn't expect any real rise in value until at least February, if not longer, as the initial profiteers will start to sell off their copies then. Only after that will price rise significantly.

Just my opinion obviously!
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Nathan Ehlers
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Re: Forbidden Stars new-in-shrink
wamsp wrote:
So, I got this game because it looked fun, but it might be a bit too long and heavy for my playgroup. I have heard that with the termination of the agreement between GW and FFG, this game can never be reprinted again. I have seen list prices rise, but is it actually selling at those prices? If so, then it may be more valuable to me to trade for something more likely to hit the table. Is this a bubble likely to burst soon and I should try to cash in while I can? I'd probably try to trade, not sell, so what is a fair trade value?


Spielboy has answers

Looks like it was around $50 for most of the life of the game. Recently it's ticked up to about $80 but that was in the flurry of people buying out the game when they thought the stock was gone. A bunch of people just bought it for $65 from Amazon.com yesterday. It is true that if it's OOP by next March or April, it will be out of print for a very long time. Then you'll see market forces take over and the price will rise.

Technically speaking, we're in a series of microbubbles because the FFG announcement created an artificially high demand that has outstripped stock. So whenever the game is restocked, it's bought out. During the days between restocks, people lament that it's OOP forever and the price spikes. Note that there's almost certainly a dramatic speculation impact going on right now, similar to what happened in the comic book industry in the early 90s. People are buying multiple copies to sell at a profit later because they believe this is a "can't lose" proposition. It's very possible that if that behavior is pervasive, then the artificial demand might be so high that it causes long term deflation. With comic books, you saw this with people buying cases of issue #1 or some other special event book expecting it to rise in value just like Action Comics #1 (arguably the most expensive comic in the world, worth 6-7 figures; original price was a few cents). Unfortunately, when 7 out of 10 comic buyers each have 10 copies of a thing in their closet, there's never an opportunity for after market resale (again, technically with enough time, those people will die and that stock will degrade to the point where the supply balances, but practically speaking...). All this is to say that it's possible that FFG is churning out copies of FS as quickly as they can get them and the ultimate supply pool is in the millions of units. The artificial demand makes it look like scarcity, but once people are done buying them a case at a time and all the people who just want one copy, has them, you'll see a "race to the bottom" effect take place over the next 1-2 years in which it'll be cheaper than that $50 price point to own a copy.

tl;dr - It's possible the stock of FS is much bigger than we think and there is no long term value in it. It's possible that when it's OOP for good next year, you'll see a slow, steady increase in price. Hard to say unless you're in the C-suite at FFG.
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