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Subject: Combinatory Analysis to solve the elements rss

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Bruno Alberth Silva Barros
Brazil
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Do you guys knows if it's possible to use combinatory analysis to discover the elements in this game? A friend of mine insists he can do it from turn one and says he would base it on the combination chart used on 5 player games to do it.
 
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David desJardins
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Maedhross wrote:
Do you guys knows if it's possible to use combinatory analysis to discover the elements in this game?


Sure. You can take all of your observations and you can do a perfect combinatorial analysis to determine exactly what alchemicals are possible and consistent with your observations. I can do that every time.

But there's more to the game. There's also inferences that are probabilistic rather than combinatorial. For example, if Fred publishes a theory about Fern, he's probably got some reason to believe it even if he's not sure it's right. Figuring out what you can conclude from that kind of information, which is only probable, not definite, is harder.
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Cameron McKenzie
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Determining the solution takes a minimum of 6 experiments. There's no way you are doing that in turn 1.
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Bruno Alberth Silva Barros
Brazil
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He says that he can infer the algorithm based on the words in the page 3 of the manual...

Bullshit?

Basically, he said he can infer the algorithm that the program uses, so Everytime the program generates a random combination of letter, he knows exactly what is the order of the ingredients.
 
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Jon Ben
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Of course I've been up all night! Not because of caffeine, it was insomnia. I couldn't stop thinking about coffee.
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MasterDinadan wrote:
Determining the solution takes a minimum of 6 experiments. There's no way you are doing that in turn 1.


You can actually do it with 5 if you're lucky and spend far too much effort with your deductions.
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Daily Grind
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Maedhross wrote:
Basically, he said he can infer the algorithm that the program uses, so Everytime the program generates a random combination of letter, he knows exactly what is the order of the ingredients.

Seems pretty easy to put to the test. Count me as incredulous. Unless of course, this individual wrote the app
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David desJardins
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I expect you could reverse engineer the algorithm and write a program to determine the alchemicals given the letter code. But that's just cheating, just like peeking behind your opponents' screens or palming extra coins.
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Cameron McKenzie
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Maedhross wrote:
He says that he can infer the algorithm based on the words in the page 3 of the manual...

Bullshit?

Basically, he said he can infer the algorithm that the program uses, so Everytime the program generates a random combination of letter, he knows exactly what is the order of the ingredients.


There's no way you can know that from the manual.
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Paul Grogan
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If he is serious, just get him to prove it. Simple.
If it turns out that he somehow can, please let CGE know officially, and I'm sure they will update the app somehow.

But without reverse engineering the code in the app, I don't see how this is possible. There is no way to infer from the wording in the rulebook what the solution to every game is. Unless there is a misunderstanding of how the game actually works.
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Bruno Alberth Silva Barros
Brazil
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He even wants to bet that he can deduce the algorithm from the DEMO example and the sequence that's given on the manual.

I'll try to update if he actually can deduce it this way, but I really doubt it.

EDIT: Here's the transcript of the page he's talking about:

The gamemaster handles every situation that normally requires the card reader.
For example, whenever a player needs to “scan” ingredient cards, the player passes the cards face down to the gamemaster.
The gamemaster looks up the resulting potion and then gives the answer that the card reader would give in that situation.
The gamemaster can then put the ingredients in the discard pile.

If the battery on your smartphone dies and you want to use the gamemaster triangle to finish your game,
just convert the four-letter game code to an ordered list of 8 ingredients using this simple algorithm: ...
Actually, on second thought, maybe we should keep that information to ourselves.
 
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Nushura
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Sendai
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It is simply impossible to deduce the solution of DEMO only from the rulebook. Only one experiment regarding 2 ingredients is given in there....so whatever solution he can come up, flip the roles of 2 components (other than toad and bird claw) and could also be a solution.
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Bruno Alberth Silva Barros
Brazil
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Nushura wrote:
It is simply impossible to deduce the solution of DEMO only from the rulebook. Only one experiment regarding 2 ingredients is given in there....so whatever solution he can come up, flip the roles of 2 components (other than toad and bird claw) and could also be a solution.


Actually, the manual shows the complete solution for the demo example on page 3, unless I'm misinterpreting it somehow...
 
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Paul Grogan
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Maedhross wrote:
If the battery on your smartphone dies and you want to use the gamemaster triangle to finish your game,
just convert the four-letter game code to an ordered list of 8 ingredients using this simple algorithm: ...
Actually, on second thought, maybe we should keep that information to ourselves. [/c]


Please get him to send this to me over email and I can see if it works. Just get him to send to paul@czechgames.com
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Kristo Vaher
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He's trolling with you or doesn't know what he's talking about. I've studied math, statistics and computer science and there is no way to solve this in one turn.

As for the app, it was updated and algorithm was improved, you cannot reverse engineer it as you could during initial release.

But of course he is welcome to try. Just tell him to prove it. Maybe Earth is flat after all.
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Paul Grogan
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Slashdoctor wrote:
But of course he is welcome to try. Just tell him to prove it. Maybe Earth is flat after all.
Isn't it?
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Robert Stewart
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In principle, it's definitely possible to convert the game code into a complete list of alchemicals. There are fewer than half a million possible game codes, so, while it's moderately impractical for one person to log them all (if you can log one code per minute, it would take about 0.9 man-years just to log them all), you could definitely log a sizeable chunk of the game codes (at 1 per minute, you can do roughly 0.1% in 8 hours). I've not tested to see how long it actually takes to enter a game code and then log the 8 alchemicals, so actual timing may vary.

And, of course, even if you get a complete list of all half a million or so combinations, turning that into something more useful than an insanely long lookup table is non-trivial.

Overall, it's not impossible that someone could figure out the simple algorithm behind the codes, but I'd have to see it to believe it.
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Bruno Alberth Silva Barros
Brazil
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rmsgrey wrote:
In principle, it's definitely possible to convert the game code into a complete list of alchemicals. There are fewer than half a million possible game codes, so, while it's moderately impractical for one person to log them all (if you can log one code per minute, it would take about 0.9 man-years just to log them all), you could definitely log a sizeable chunk of the game codes (at 1 per minute, you can do roughly 0.1% in 8 hours). I've not tested to see how long it actually takes to enter a game code and then log the 8 alchemicals, so actual timing may vary.

And, of course, even if you get a complete list of all half a million or so combinations, turning that into something more useful than an insanely long lookup table is non-trivial.

Overall, it's not impossible that someone could figure out the simple algorithm behind the codes, but I'd have to see it to believe it.


Do you know the exact number of combinations this game offers?
 
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Paul Grogan
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Isn't it 8 factorial? 40,320?
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Robert Stewart
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Maedhross wrote:
Do you know the exact number of combinations this game offers?


As PaulGrogan says, there are 40320 possible combinations of alchemicals with ingredients.

For a 4-letter string, the exact number of possible game-codes is 456976, or a little over 11 codes per game (a hair over 11 and a third).
 
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Kristo Vaher
Estonia
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So what happened to the Rain Man?
 
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Kris Boyen
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Slashdoctor wrote:
As for the app, it was updated and algorithm was improved, you cannot reverse engineer it as you could during initial release.


As an engineer myself, I wouldn't say this. It is sure that the algorithm that converts the 4 letter string to a unique combination exists. As such, I'm pretty confident that you can reverse engineer it (not saying that I can). But with the newer version, I believe that it won't be something you can easily do without any aid.
 
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Bruno Alberth Silva Barros
Brazil
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Slashdoctor wrote:
So what happened to the Rain Man?


Probably still trying to do it.

He'll play the game this thursday.
 
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Kristo Vaher
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Karian wrote:
Slashdoctor wrote:
As for the app, it was updated and algorithm was improved, you cannot reverse engineer it as you could during initial release.


As an engineer myself, I wouldn't say this. It is sure that the algorithm that converts the 4 letter string to a unique combination exists. As such, I'm pretty confident that you can reverse engineer it (not saying that I can). But with the newer version, I believe that it won't be something you can easily do without any aid.


I didn't say you cannot reverse engineer it I said you cannot do it the way you could the first time the app was released. They changed it, this was easily possible before.

But even then, it's highly unlikely and certainly not possible without an app. Not possible the way the OP explained about his friend.
 
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David desJardins
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If the battery on your smartphone dies and you want to use the gamemaster triangle to finish your game,
just convert the four-letter game code to an ordered list of 8 ingredients using this simple algorithm: ...
Actually, on second thought, maybe we should keep that information to ourselves.


Perhaps he's taking "simple" too literally. Someone might have to tell him that's tongue in cheek (like many CGE rules).
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Kris Rhodes
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I am disappoint that this thread ended.
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