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Subject: Trump is putting the House in play rss

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Professor of Pain
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A Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC finds the exact same 49-42 spread between a generic Democrat vs. generic Republican. Even worse (for the GOP):
Quote:
Against a Republican "who continues to endorse Donald Trump" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Similarly, against a "Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Finally, even against a "Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won't vote for him" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.

The reason voters hold House Republicans similarly accountable, regardless of their reaction since Trump video bombshell, is that voters believe Republicans withdrawing Trump support are doing it for political reasons and for self-preservation – not because they have character or integrity.



This could be epic...
 
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J
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I don't think the Republicans will lose the House. The Senate is a different story.
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Pontifex Maximus
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Elfbane wrote:

A Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC finds the exact same 49-42 spread between a generic Democrat vs. generic Republican. Even worse (for the GOP):
Quote:
Against a Republican "who continues to endorse Donald Trump" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Similarly, against a "Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Finally, even against a "Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won't vote for him" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.

The reason voters hold House Republicans similarly accountable, regardless of their reaction since Trump video bombshell, is that voters believe Republicans withdrawing Trump support are doing it for political reasons and for self-preservation – not because they have character or integrity.



This could be epic...


And this before the news about his predilection for walking in on teen girls changing.

Oh this will be so enjoyable to watch
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J.D. Hall
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Why do you think Ryan et al having been scrambling to distance themselves from Trump? Insider polling is showing Trump is having a negative effect on Congressional and even a few state races.
 
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Agent J
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He's looking real sharp in his 1940's fedora. He's got nerves of steel, an iron will, and several other metal-themed attributes. His fur is water tight and he's always up for a fight.
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I can see the meeting... "I'm a rich white guy. Of course the Republican party will think I'm one of them. Then, I'll implode my candidacy and you will easily win!"
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John Hathorn
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Jythier wrote:
I can see the meeting... "I'm a rich white guy. Of course the Republican party will think I'm one of them. Then, I'll implode my candidacy and you will easily win!"

Sadly, I can see this being similar to his concession speech.

"I won this election for Hillary Clinton and that proves I'm the best ever at politics."
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Walt
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In memorium. Bob Hoover died 25 Oct 2016 at 94. In WWII he was shot down in a Spitfire and stole an FW-190 to escape. He spent decades at air shows flying Ole Yeller, shown
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I don't think the House will flip at this point--though there's lots of time for more Trumpery--but one interesting factor is that ten states have voting machines that allow you to vote a straight party ticket with one action, including some battleground states like Pennsylvania and Iowa. For voters disgusted with the election who want to get things over with....
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Sam I am
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Tall_Walt wrote:
I don't think the House will flip at this point--though there's lots of time for more Trumpery--but one interesting factor is that ten states have voting machines that allow you to vote a straight party ticket with one action, including some battleground states like Pennsylvania and Iowa. For voters disgusted with the election who want to get things over with....


Michigan got rid of it to help the voters "become more informed". NOT to decrease the numbers of people who can actually vote in large urban districts AT ALL.
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Agent J
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When did we lose straight party tickets? We had it last time I voted.
 
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Sam I am
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Jythier wrote:
When did we lose straight party tickets? We had it last time I voted.

My bad the higher court stuck it down. The pretense as to why it passed in Lansing is clear though.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/10/us/politics/supreme-court-...
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Rusty McFisticuffs
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Elfbane wrote:
A Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC finds the exact same 49-42 spread between a generic Democrat vs. generic Republican. Even worse (for the GOP):
Quote:
Against a Republican "who continues to endorse Donald Trump" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Similarly, against a "Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Finally, even against a "Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won't vote for him" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.

The reason voters hold House Republicans similarly accountable, regardless of their reaction since Trump video bombshell, is that voters believe Republicans withdrawing Trump support are doing it for political reasons and for self-preservation – not because they have character or integrity.

Dumb question here--I didn't read that link, but why does a move from e.g. "a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage" translate to putting the House in play? That is, how is a 12-point advantage "more winning" than a 7-point advantage--aren't they both winning?
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Wendell
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kuhrusty wrote:
Elfbane wrote:
A Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC finds the exact same 49-42 spread between a generic Democrat vs. generic Republican. Even worse (for the GOP):
Quote:
Against a Republican "who continues to endorse Donald Trump" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Similarly, against a "Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.

Finally, even against a "Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won't vote for him" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.

The reason voters hold House Republicans similarly accountable, regardless of their reaction since Trump video bombshell, is that voters believe Republicans withdrawing Trump support are doing it for political reasons and for self-preservation – not because they have character or integrity.

Dumb question here--I didn't read that link, but why does a move from e.g. "a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage" translate to putting the House in play? That is, how is a 12-point advantage "more winning" than a 7-point advantage--aren't they both winning?


Because of gerrymandering and other factors with how districts are made up, a 7-point advantage (nationally, at the presidential level, the assumption being it would also translate to House of Representatives votes) may not be enough to gain a Democratic majority in the House. A 12-point margin nearly certainly would.
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Walt
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kuhrusty wrote:
Dumb question here--I didn't read that link, but why does a move from e.g. "a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage" translate to putting the House in play? That is, how is a 12-point advantage "more winning" than a 7-point advantage--aren't they both winning?

I don't think it does necessarily. The Presidential election and the House elections are distinct. Mostly.

One factor I was unaware of is that ten (I've heard different numbers) states have straight ticket voting, where you can just vote all Republican or all Democrat. With such a distasteful figure at the head of the Republican party, those states could tilt Democratic up and down the ticket.

Any other factors would be psychological. Are people disgusted with the GOP as a whole? Do they want Clinton to have support in Congress, or contrariwise, do they want split government?
 
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J
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kuhrusty wrote:
Dumb question here--I didn't read that link, but why does a move from e.g. "a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage" translate to putting the House in play? That is, how is a 12-point advantage "more winning" than a 7-point advantage--aren't they both winning?

Just a WAG, but perhaps that puts it outside the margin of error for the survey.
 
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Professor of Pain
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jmilum wrote:
I don't think the Republicans will lose the House. The Senate is a different story.

It is a long shot, but given the state of the race and recent polling noted above, it is within the realm of possibility.
 
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Tall_Walt wrote:
kuhrusty wrote:
Dumb question here--I didn't read that link, but why does a move from e.g. "a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage" translate to putting the House in play? That is, how is a 12-point advantage "more winning" than a 7-point advantage--aren't they both winning?

I don't think it does necessarily. The Presidential election and the House elections are distinct. Mostly.

One factor I was unaware of is that ten (I've heard different numbers) states have straight ticket voting, where you can just vote all Republican or all Democrat. With such a distasteful figure at the head of the Republican party, those states could tilt Democratic up and down the ticket.

Any other factors would be psychological. Are people disgusted with the GOP as a whole? Do they want Clinton to have support in Congress, or contrariwise, do they want split government?

A lot of republicans may not show up to vote at all.
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