$20.00
$5.00
$30.00
$15.00
Recommend
4 
 Thumb up
 Hide
2 Posts

A Feast for Odin» Forums » Strategy

Subject: When to roll the dice rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
GAF Blizzard
msg tools
mbmbmbmb
Is math not your strong suit, but you still want a ravenous viking horde? No worries, since you can check these handy tables.

Remember you can roll up to 3 times and each roll overwrites the previous one.



Hunting / Laying a Snare, D8 odds for up to 3 rolls

=================================
| Desired result | Success |
=================================
| 1 | 33.01% |
| 2 or less | 57.81% |
| 3 or less | 75.59% |
| 4 or less | 87.50% |
| 5 or less | 94.73% |
| 6 or less | 98.44% |
| 7 or less | 99.80% |
| 8 or less | 100.00% |
=================================



Whaling, D12 odds for up to 3 rolls

=================================
| Desired result | Success |
=================================
| 1 | 22.97% |
| 2 or less | 42.13% |
| 3 or less | 57.81% |
| 4 or less | 70.37% |
| 5 or less | 80.15% |
| 6 or less | 87.50% |
| 7 or less | 92.77% |
| 8 or less | 96.30% |
| 9 or less | 98.44% |
| 10 or less | 99.54% |
| 11 or less | 99.94% |
| 12 or less | 100.00% |
=================================



Raiding, D8 odds for up to 3 rolls

=================================
| Desired result | Success |
=================================
| 1 or more | 100.00% |
| 2 or more | 99.80% |
| 3 or more | 98.44% |
| 4 or more | 94.73% |
| 5 or more | 87.50% |
| 6 or more | 75.59% |
| 7 or more | 57.81% |
| 8 | 33.01% |
=================================



Pillaging, D12 odds for up to 3 rolls

=================================
| Desired result | Success |
=================================
| 1 or more | 100.00% |
| 2 or more | 99.94% |
| 3 or more | 99.54% |
| 4 or more | 98.44% |
| 5 or more | 96.30% |
| 6 or more | 92.77% |
| 7 or more | 87.50% |
| 8 or more | 80.15% |
| 9 or more | 70.37% |
| 10 or more | 57.81% |
| 11 or more | 42.13% |
| 12 | 22.97% |
=================================





For an example of how these calculations are done, let's take up to 3 rolls of a D8 where you stop if you roll 1 or 2.

Odds of success on first roll = (2/8) = 0.25 = 25%
Odds of success on second roll = (6/8) chances of doing a second roll * (2/8) chance of rolling what you want = ((6/8) * (2/8)) = (3/16) = 0.1875 = 18.75%
Odds of success on third roll = ((6/8) * (6/8) * (2/8)) = (9/64) = 0.140625 = 14.06%
Odds of success by third roll = (0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.140625) = 0.578125 = 57.81%


If I messed up any math, please feel free to laugh at me in the comments and I will fix it. whistle

11 
 Thumb up
5.00
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Philip Morton
msg tools
GAFBlizzard wrote:
For an example of how these calculations are done, let's take up to 3 rolls of a D8 where you stop if you roll 1 or 2.

Odds of success on first roll = (2/8) = 0.25 = 25%
Odds of success on second roll = (6/8) chances of doing a second roll * (2/8) chance of rolling what you want = ((6/8) * (2/8)) = (3/16) = 0.1875 = 18.75%
Odds of success on third roll = ((6/8) * (6/8) * (2/8)) = (9/64) = 0.140625 = 14.06%
Odds of success by third roll = (0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.140625) = 0.578125 = 57.81%

Usually the way I see this formulated is

Odds of failure on each roll: 6/8
Odds of three failures in a row: (6/8)*(6/8)*(6/8) = 0.421875
Odds of success within three rolls: 1.0 - 0.421875 = 0.578125
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.