West Palm Beach
I feel like I'm doing something wrong in here somewhere.
Ultimately, it seems to me the big question for a player to answer is whether he wants to go to war and end the game. The only reason to do that is if he is winning. So the first calculation is really: who is winning, and by how much?
If the Axis is winning by 3 points or more, there is not much reason for the Axis not to conduct an Aggression, if otherwise allowed.
Similarly, if the Allies are winning (including points for defending the target minor), they should oppose any Aggression, if allowed. If losing, they should not oppose, lest war break out, the game ends, and the Allies lose.
Other than the Rhineland/Ethiopia first restriction, and Albania before Greece/Yugo restriction, I do not see any calculation required by rule as a prerequisite to declaring the Aggression.
The Allies' ability to respond is really based upon the ability of one or the other to declare war. This is a numerical calculation:
--BoP (negative, which favors Allies, is positive for this calculation)
--Brit. OR Fr. support current level (including the play of heretofore secret support events)
--Minor country resistance, which is:
--Defensive strength (black # on map)
--Allied or Axis flags in target minor
--Neighboring Trade Pacts, +/-1 each
--Random Tile draw (1-3)
--(Other than the number of turns for the Italians to conquer a country, a minor country's resistance does not have to be exceeded in order to conquer the minor; minor country resistance is primarily a factor to determine the Allies' ability to declare war).
If the above totals 1 or more, Brit. or Fr. may declare war, end the game, total the victory points, see who wins.
So, does the above look like the correct analysis sequence, or am i missing something?