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Subject: Potential to rapidly lose 3 million jobs just got a lot closer rss

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Mac Mcleod
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http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-otto-self-driving-truck-...
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In the arms race to build self-driving vehicles, the Uber-owned company Otto last week reached a milestone by completing the first commercial cargo run for a self-driving truck.

On Thursday, the self-driving truck left Fort Collins, Colorado, at 1 a.m. and drove itself 120 miles on I-25 to Colorado Springs. The driver, who has to be there to help the truck get on and off the interstate exit ramps, moved to the backseat alongside a crowd of transportation officials to watch the historic ride.




That's 3 million high paying jobs in the united states.
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J.D. Hall
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But...but...but...efficiency! Safety! Neat-o computer stuff!!!

#AllPeopleMatter

Wait until they program an AI to write code. That will be freaking hilarious.
 
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J.D. Hall
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Just come on down to Oklahoma. We've got lots of bunkers, er storm shelters.
 
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the less human work the better - my only concern is that we may need a violent revolution to fairly share the spoils
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J.D. Hall
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monkeyhandz wrote:

Are those calligraphers?

Hopefully you realize there was a brief period in European history where the Church tried to shut down printing presses because they were printing the Bible, and the Bible was NOT for the common rabble.

Own goal.
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Xander Fulton
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monkeyhandz wrote:


Not really applicable.

The rate of technology change at that period, as well as degree of training required to take on newer tasks, allowed a transition of workers from one type of labor to another with minimal disruption and gains from improved efficiency.

That isn't happening, now, nor has it been for a while - technological advances in the past few decades have instead mostly just eliminated jobs; far more than are created along the way (although certainly new jobs are being created, it's simply not comparable to how many are being lost).

Something like this will spike that even further.

A UBI is certainly one way to address the problem, but honestly I think there are secondary factors we are missing, even while (correctly) being concerned about the impact on employment. Turning a society into LITERALLY nothing but consumers - with the vast majority doing no production at all, certainly none limited by their immediate capabilities - in favor of robots and other automations maximizing our efficiency at consumption and pollution...

...I dunno, this just seems like a bad idea.
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maxo-texas wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-otto-self-driving-truck-...
Quote:

In the arms race to build self-driving vehicles, the Uber-owned company Otto last week reached a milestone by completing the first commercial cargo run for a self-driving truck.

On Thursday, the self-driving truck left Fort Collins, Colorado, at 1 a.m. and drove itself 120 miles on I-25 to Colorado Springs. The driver, who has to be there to help the truck get on and off the interstate exit ramps, moved to the backseat alongside a crowd of transportation officials to watch the historic ride.




That's 3 million high paying jobs in the united states.


But there was still a driver on the truck, right? He just wasn't behind the wheel with his foot depressing the gas pedal for the majority of the riding time on I-25, right? He is still "working", just not turning the wheel or using the necessary pedals, right?

Or will Otto eventually be able to do EVERYTHING (like getting on the highway and properly backing into the loading dock, for example), thereby making the driver FULLY AND COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT?
 
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Mac Mcleod
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XanderF wrote:
monkeyhandz wrote:


Not really applicable.

The rate of technology change at that period, as well as degree of training required to take on newer tasks, allowed a transition of workers from one type of labor to another with minimal disruption and gains from improved efficiency.

That isn't happening, now, nor has it been for a while - technological advances in the past few decades have instead mostly just eliminated jobs; far more than are created along the way (although certainly new jobs are being created, it's simply not comparable to how many are being lost).

Something like this will spike that even further.

A UBI is certainly one way to address the problem, but honestly I think there are secondary factors we are missing, even while (correctly) being concerned about the impact on employment. Turning a society into LITERALLY nothing but consumers - with the vast majority doing no production at all, certainly none limited by their immediate capabilities - in favor of robots and other automations maximizing our efficiency at consumption and pollution...

...I dunno, this just seems like a bad idea.


What's ignored in that is that it was the FOLLOWING generation that got the training and transitioned. Ned and his folks got no training and many died homeless and starving. Some were killed when they revolted.

I think horses are a better model. They dropped from about 51 million to 3 million with the advent of the automobile and have never recovered.
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Mac Mcleod
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chrisnd wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-otto-self-driving-truck-...
Quote:

In the arms race to build self-driving vehicles, the Uber-owned company Otto last week reached a milestone by completing the first commercial cargo run for a self-driving truck.

On Thursday, the self-driving truck left Fort Collins, Colorado, at 1 a.m. and drove itself 120 miles on I-25 to Colorado Springs. The driver, who has to be there to help the truck get on and off the interstate exit ramps, moved to the backseat alongside a crowd of transportation officials to watch the historic ride.




That's 3 million high paying jobs in the united states.


But there was still a driver on the truck, right? He just wasn't behind the wheel with his foot depressing the gas pedal for the majority of the riding time on I-25, right? He is still "working", just not turning the wheel or using the necessary pedals, right?

Or will Otto eventually be able to do EVERYTHING (like getting on the highway and properly backing into the loading dock, for example), thereby making the driver FULLY AND COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT?


It said the driver was in the back seat with the officials for part of the drive. It mentioned the driver was still required to deal with on ramps and off ramps. So twice each way for a couple minutes?
 
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J.D. Hall
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chrisnd wrote:
Or will Otto eventually be able to do EVERYTHING (like getting on the highway and properly backing into the loading dock, for example), thereby making the driver FULLY AND COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT?

Don't worry -- we'll get you a job making sure Otto is fully functioning and how to use the emergency manual restorer....
 
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remorseless1 wrote:
Are those calligraphers?

Hopefully you realize there was a brief period in European history where the Church tried to shut down printing presses because they were printing the Bible, and the Bible was NOT for the common rabble.

Own goal.

those are luddites (unemployed or underpaid weavers) destroying a spinning jenny
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XanderF wrote:
monkeyhandz wrote:


Not really applicable.

The rate of technology change at that period, as well as degree of training required to take on newer tasks, allowed a transition of workers from one type of labor to another with minimal disruption and gains from improved efficiency.

That isn't happening, now, nor has it been for a while - technological advances in the past few decades have instead mostly just eliminated jobs; far more than are created along the way (although certainly new jobs are being created, it's simply not comparable to how many are being lost).

Something like this will spike that even further.

A UBI is certainly one way to address the problem, but honestly I think there are secondary factors we are missing, even while (correctly) being concerned about the impact on employment. Turning a society into LITERALLY nothing but consumers - with the vast majority doing no production at all, certainly none limited by their immediate capabilities - in favor of robots and other automations maximizing our efficiency at consumption and pollution...

...I dunno, this just seems like a bad idea.


Idle hands. We could always resume the way of the Viking.
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Bojan Ramadanovic
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maxo-texas wrote:
XanderF wrote:
monkeyhandz wrote:


Not really applicable.

The rate of technology change at that period, as well as degree of training required to take on newer tasks, allowed a transition of workers from one type of labor to another with minimal disruption and gains from improved efficiency.

That isn't happening, now, nor has it been for a while - technological advances in the past few decades have instead mostly just eliminated jobs; far more than are created along the way (although certainly new jobs are being created, it's simply not comparable to how many are being lost).

Something like this will spike that even further.

A UBI is certainly one way to address the problem, but honestly I think there are secondary factors we are missing, even while (correctly) being concerned about the impact on employment. Turning a society into LITERALLY nothing but consumers - with the vast majority doing no production at all, certainly none limited by their immediate capabilities - in favor of robots and other automations maximizing our efficiency at consumption and pollution...

...I dunno, this just seems like a bad idea.


What's ignored in that is that it was the FOLLOWING generation that got the training and transitioned. Ned and his folks got no training and many died homeless and starving. Some were killed when they revolted.

I think horses are a better model. They dropped from about 51 million to 3 million with the advent of the automobile and have never recovered.


Nobody is likely to starve these days (not even US safety net is *that* bad) - but yes, notion that universe/government owes you a job doing what your father did is simply wrong and yet one people are very stubborn at holding onto.

World is a substantially better place for the fact that Lud and his crew were ignored/supressed. It is a better place now that the 'factory town' and 'assembly line' are fading away and it will be better still when driving becomes a quaint hobby - akin to rowing or horseback riding.
Yes it will take some adjusting for some folks along the way, but it is for the greatest good of the greatest number.

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remorseless1 wrote:
But...but...but...efficiency! Safety! Neat-o computer stuff!!!

#AllPeopleMatter

Wait until they program an AI to write code. That will be freaking hilarious.


They have, it just sucks right now.

Once it doesn't, we'll hit the singularity, and life as we know it will end.
 
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bjlillo wrote:
Drivers are definitely going to be irrelevant in a few years. Same for cab drivers.


Say it ain't so!



please note that this was made in a spirit of good fun
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the more technology is developed, the more lower-level jobs will eventually be replaced by automated machines/computers.

its difficult to tell how technology may create new jobs as well as you need more people to maintain the machines but the tendency is rather that less jobs are created than are being lost, and that the created jobs are likely of higher level/complexity.

so its indeed conceivable that there may come a time where its difficult to find enough jobs for the whole worker population.

new types of jobs need to be found if you want to keep them active (which is difficult to predict) or spread the work around or change the economy system.
 
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bramadan wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
XanderF wrote:
monkeyhandz wrote:


Not really applicable.

The rate of technology change at that period, as well as degree of training required to take on newer tasks, allowed a transition of workers from one type of labor to another with minimal disruption and gains from improved efficiency.

That isn't happening, now, nor has it been for a while - technological advances in the past few decades have instead mostly just eliminated jobs; far more than are created along the way (although certainly new jobs are being created, it's simply not comparable to how many are being lost).

Something like this will spike that even further.

A UBI is certainly one way to address the problem, but honestly I think there are secondary factors we are missing, even while (correctly) being concerned about the impact on employment. Turning a society into LITERALLY nothing but consumers - with the vast majority doing no production at all, certainly none limited by their immediate capabilities - in favor of robots and other automations maximizing our efficiency at consumption and pollution...

...I dunno, this just seems like a bad idea.


What's ignored in that is that it was the FOLLOWING generation that got the training and transitioned. Ned and his folks got no training and many died homeless and starving. Some were killed when they revolted.

I think horses are a better model. They dropped from about 51 million to 3 million with the advent of the automobile and have never recovered.


Nobody is likely to starve these days (not even US safety net is *that* bad) - but yes, notion that universe/government owes you a job doing what your father did is simply wrong and yet one people are very stubborn at holding onto.

World is a substantially better place for the fact that Lud and his crew were ignored/supressed. It is a better place now that the 'factory town' and 'assembly line' are fading away and it will be better still when driving becomes a quaint hobby - akin to rowing or horseback riding.
Yes it will take some adjusting for some folks along the way, but it is for the greatest good of the greatest number.



https://thinkprogress.org/how-many-homeless-people-will-free...

Starvation - no (tho poor nutrition contributes to early death from other causes.) Exposure due to homelessness and lack of shelter - yes.

http://www.nationalhomeless.org/factsheets/health.html
Quote:
The average life expectancy in the homeless population is estimated between 42 and 52 years, compared to 78 years in the general population.


If enough people lose their jobs at the same time, the safety nets will be overwhelmed and historically police will violently encourage the homeless to move along (can't afford to arrest them) and the populace will ignore the plight of the homeless.
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maxo-texas wrote:
shake It isn't "too smart-enough" or it would *crash* itself with this load of 'liquid-shit' and PREVENT 'drunk dumb-asses' accordingly. yuk
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Bojan Ramadanovic
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maxo-texas wrote:
bramadan wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
XanderF wrote:
monkeyhandz wrote:


Not really applicable.

The rate of technology change at that period, as well as degree of training required to take on newer tasks, allowed a transition of workers from one type of labor to another with minimal disruption and gains from improved efficiency.

That isn't happening, now, nor has it been for a while - technological advances in the past few decades have instead mostly just eliminated jobs; far more than are created along the way (although certainly new jobs are being created, it's simply not comparable to how many are being lost).

Something like this will spike that even further.

A UBI is certainly one way to address the problem, but honestly I think there are secondary factors we are missing, even while (correctly) being concerned about the impact on employment. Turning a society into LITERALLY nothing but consumers - with the vast majority doing no production at all, certainly none limited by their immediate capabilities - in favor of robots and other automations maximizing our efficiency at consumption and pollution...

...I dunno, this just seems like a bad idea.


What's ignored in that is that it was the FOLLOWING generation that got the training and transitioned. Ned and his folks got no training and many died homeless and starving. Some were killed when they revolted.

I think horses are a better model. They dropped from about 51 million to 3 million with the advent of the automobile and have never recovered.


Nobody is likely to starve these days (not even US safety net is *that* bad) - but yes, notion that universe/government owes you a job doing what your father did is simply wrong and yet one people are very stubborn at holding onto.

World is a substantially better place for the fact that Lud and his crew were ignored/supressed. It is a better place now that the 'factory town' and 'assembly line' are fading away and it will be better still when driving becomes a quaint hobby - akin to rowing or horseback riding.
Yes it will take some adjusting for some folks along the way, but it is for the greatest good of the greatest number.



https://thinkprogress.org/how-many-homeless-people-will-free...

Starvation - no (tho poor nutrition contributes to early death from other causes.) Exposure due to homelessness and lack of shelter - yes.

http://www.nationalhomeless.org/factsheets/health.html
Quote:
The average life expectancy in the homeless population is estimated between 42 and 52 years, compared to 78 years in the general population.


If your argument is that we should do more to help the poor - regardless of what the reason is for their poverty then I enthusiastically agree.
Quote:

If enough people lose their jobs at the same time, the safety nets will be overwhelmed and historically police will violently encourage the homeless to move along (can't afford to arrest them) and the populace will ignore the plight of the homeless.



Luckily none of it will be 'at the same time'. Even if the technology crystallized out in its final form tomorrow, adoption rates across different businesses will vary hugely. As it is, with technology evolving and businesses estimating their costs and benefits - it will be slow process of attrition rather then a sudden 'next month all truckers are out on the streets'.
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Isaac Citrom
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Well, obviously the thing to do is to allow another 10 or 20 million illegal aliens to join the citizenry and job market. That can only help, as we're told.
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This is why we need a guaranteed minimum income. YOUR JOB is expendable. It doesn't matter what you do, and computer/robot can do it faster and better. I once thought the creative fields were immune, but computers can even write books and compose symphonies now.

We'll all be plugged into the Matrix soon enough.
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I wish they would have been brave enough to call the company Maximum Overdrive.



I suppose a good compromise would be to call the self-driving mode "Maximum Overdrive" instead of something dumb like intelligent autopilot.
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maxo-texas wrote:
That's 3 million high paying jobs in the united states.


This is kind of interesting for me. Back in the early 90's I had no money and no home when someone told me they could get me a trucking job. So, I went to some driver school for all of a week, passed my CDL class A license and got a job.

I used my time there to bank money for college. I spent 4 years driving.My first year, I didn't make much but I lived in that truck and ate cheaply. By my 4th year, I was working locally and had enough saved up to go to school with a part time local job.

I never made huge amounts of money in my time in that industry. I think my best year was 46k. Which in the 90's was great pay, but to get that I had to spend 24/7 in that truck.

Once you start to break down the amount you make per hours, your pay gets ugly.Most companies pay drivers per mile. So when the driver is waiting to get a load or going to get a load, they are working for free. The guys who made serious bank are the ones who know how to run multiple log books, cheat their times, use stimulants for less sleep and generally break the law in other minor ways.

So on one hand, I hope other people like me can use driving as an easy way to lift themselves up out of the poverty they are in.

On the other hand, the industry rewards dangerous drivers. I think replacing long haul OTR drivers will be a great thing as the safety and fuel economy will offset the negatives. I assume it will be a lot longer until the can replace local driver who make contact with the customers.
Each dock is different, locations. There would have to be some type of massive break through to get local drivers replaced.

But, assume these trucks need a person to ride along, that would have been perfect for me to complete school work in the back.

So the driving jobs will change, but it might be for the better.
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jeremycobert wrote:
But, assume these trucks need a person to ride along, that would have been perfect for me to complete school work in the back.

Or allow one operator to run several trucks via telepresence and only take control when and if needed.
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