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A Game of Thrones (first edition)» Forums » General

Subject: some interesting stats rss

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Geoff Conn
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So a recent comment on a geeklist on AGOT1e prompted me to finally write up a review of this, my favorite game of all time. Im waiting for that to be approved as I type.

The posters comments on balance and how greyjoy is too strong and lannister too weak struck me as ....odd. But that was in reference to 2e which I have far less experience with. So I went to a log of online games and compiled some stats.

AGOT first edition online wins V2 as of 2016.11.07

5 player games
House # of Wins Win % (of 52 games)
Baratheon 11 21%
Lannister 8 15%
Greyjoy 12 23%
Stark 11 21%
Tyrell 10 19%



4 player games
House # of Wins Win % (of 16 games)
Baratheon 3 19%
Lannister 4 25%
Stark 8 50%
Tyrell 1 6%


3 player games
House # of Wins Win % (of 5 games)
Baratheon 3 60%
Lannister 1 20%
Stark 1 20%

Commentary

At the ideal 20% win rate for each of the 5 houses, surpisingly the house I feel to be the weakest in most games Tyrell actually does just fine. Just under that at 19%. Lannister, one of the stronger houses I feel, actually does fare poorly at 15%. Baratheon, long considered the strongest in board position, is just average at 21%, while Greyjoy is the highest at 23%.

What this refers to perhaps is that my perception of Tyrell is based on strength overall, and not a clear record of wins or losses. One can be in a fairly strong position quickly with Lannister if they can estable the lannister knot (pool of regions around the stoney sept) and negotiate to keep Greyjoy at bay with Tyrell and/or Stark help. But for them to turn that position into a win is another thing altogether.

Also the numbers may represent the games where Lannister just loses for whatever reason, most likely to Greyjoy not being stopped. This in turn could mean less pressure on Tyrell which allows them to up their win %.

This is somewhat borne out by then looking at the 4 player count stats. Tyrell's win% goes down (nothing to keep Lannister busy), Lannister's % goes up, and Starks goes through the roof! Starks defensive position is made stronger when there is no Greyjoy to backdoor them.

The 3 player games don't have enough numbers to really comment on.


Ultimately one can say that a house's win% can be derived from 3 things;
1)board position
2)initial units
3)house cards

Lannister has a unique position in that it has access to good regions, but is immediately beset by Greyjoy. They have ok units (4 units of 5 strength) but face again, a house with more units right in their face. They have decent cards imo, but again, face a stronger set of house cards in Greyjoy. Their only advantage is the raven to start.

Tyrell has a poor board position imo with weak territories around them, but have less immediate pressure. However, the minute Greyjoy gets into the sunset sea in 1ed, they constantly have to defend Highgarden. Initial units is ok but under the rest but for Lannister, and their house cards are ok.

Greyjoy has a good board position (access to many strongholds, defensive island), good units (5 for 6) and good house cards.

If one were to get the win% of Lannister and Tyrell to move up, perhaps a few changes might have to be made. I think easier access to Kings Landing for Lannister would be a start. Make Harrenhal join to it.

Then Greyjoy could use a tweak done, and I'd look at Balon Greyjoy. He's so darn good. Having all high cards with mostly swords and the 1's with castles is perhaps an issue as well.

Tyrell...not sure. At least a crown symbol on oldtown. Perhaps something in the Reach? Should the sunset sea border Highgarden? I know this was changed in the expansion and 2e but I often think the Shield islands need to be in there to shield it instead.

Well at least these numbers may make some food for thought.

 
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Geoff Conn
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Ok i have gone through the session reports to date and crunched some more numbers. I have discarded 6 player reports and any that used siege engines or significant house rules, or I could not tell who won for sure.

AGOT 1e bgg session reports stats

5 player games
House # of wins % of 68 games
Baratheon 21.5 32%
Lannister 10.5 15%
Greyjoy 19 28%
Stark 7.5 11%
Tyrell 9.5 14%

4 player games
House # of wins % of 22 games
Baratheon 7 31%
Lannister 8 36%
Stark 6 27%
Tyrell 1 5%

3 player games
House # of wins % of 2 games
Baratheon 1 50%
Lannister 0
Tyrell 1 50%
 
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Geoff Conn
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Ithink alot of what has been said so far laregly bears out in the second set of stats there, although inexplicably both Stark and Tyrell fall behind the curve for some reason. Still, Baratheon and Greyjoy are too strong in 5 player games and Lannister springs up suddenly in 4 player games.

Lets put both 5 player stats together;

House # of Wins Win % (of 120 games)
Baratheon 32.5 27%
Lannister 18.5 15%
Greyjoy 31 26%
Stark 18.5 15%
Tyrell 19.5 16%


Its hard to know what to think at this point. Why have the numbers changed so much from my online set to the bgg set, which seems to have grossly influenced the online set in the final set? Well one fact could be experience. Its hard to say but if one comes to the online platform I am using then they are experienced in the game already. And I can say for certain that good third of the bgg session reports are influenced by lack of experience, the last page was almost entirely of first timer reports full of new players.

So I would tend to stick to my original assessment based on the online stats; that Baratheon and Greyjoy are too strong, Lannister suffers in the 5 player game but benefits too much from the removal of Greyjoy in the 4 player game, and Stark and Tyrell are mostly alright, although a small tweak might help Tyrell.

Given that, here is an interesting solution I came apon in one of the session reports which I was muddling over myself at the time. As Baratheon and Greyjoy are the strongest and are 2 of 3 powers that start the game with a higher unit count, and deserve the stronger navy due to an island homeland, what about reducing their knight to a third footman?

In a 4 player game, Pyke should probably be inaccessible to anyone (this is to keep Lannister expansion under control). In both 5/4 player games I also wonder if Seagard being a city rather than stronghold might help, but am happy to shelve that for now.

Tyrell...could perhaps use that crown in oldtown, they are hurting for power most games. Or play with the expansion/2e map tweak so that the sunset sea does not border highgarden.

Any comments are welcome.
 
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