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Subject: So What Went Wrong? rss

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Greg Michealson
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I think quite a lot of undecided voters went to Trump in the end. Pollsters underestimated the white man's rage against Hillary.

I don't think Trump did much right. He said stupid things, but it didn't hurt him. He acted like a complete buffoon on many different occasions, but it didn't hurt him.

It really came down to anyone the Republicans nominated was going to beat Hillary.
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galad2003 wrote:
Looks like Trump won it but even if something happens after I go to sleep, Trump pulled way better numbers than anyone suspected.

So What went wrong for the Dems? Or what did Trump do right?

Discuss.
What went wrong was the dems didn't put up bernie. He would've crushed the she-aht outta drumph. The dems deserve to lose though it's not certain yet that they have.
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It seems like there's a global surge of populism / xenophobia, with Brexit and Trump, Duarte, Erdoğan. Things might have been different prior to the Arab Spring generating tons of refugees. Who knows?

And yep, Clinton was no Obama or Sanders. Still surprised to see Trump get up, though. Ted Cruz or someone I could understand winning, but the Trump thing bewilders me.
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Sign of the times.

A heavy defeat for reason, intellect, tolerance, diversity and the goodness of human beings.

Heavy times ahead for those who do not fit in.
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Mike Stiles
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I said it in the general thread, but it's this.

Trump talked about people being unwilling to admit how they'd vote... and that's true.

People balked at voting for a woman.
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Trump said the election was rigged. None of us knew he was telling us about his master plan as oppose to complaining.
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We deserve everything we get from this point on. Everything.
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Don't blame me. I voted for Kodos.
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Junior McSpiffy
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windsagio wrote:
People balked at voting for a woman.


I've said it before and I will say it again.... fuck you.

People balked at voting for THAT woman.
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GameCrossing wrote:
windsagio wrote:
People balked at voting for a woman.


I've said it before and I will say it again.... fuck you.

People balked at voting for THAT woman.


Some people balked at voting for dynasty. Some people balked at voting for a democrat. Some people balked at voting for a woman.
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In a rare i_told_you_so moment, way back at the beginning of the campaign when people thought a Trump candidacy was ludicrous, I said that people were under estimating the number of hateful human beings there are in the USA. By ignoring this dark underbelly the Democrats thought people would be decent enough not to elect a monster. Turns out people are frustrated enough to think the monster will be on their side if they are nice to him. Enter the fascist.
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Greg Michealson
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windsagio wrote:
I said it in the general thread, but it's this.

Trump talked about people being unwilling to admit how they'd vote... and that's true.

People balked at voting for a woman.


I disagree. People balked at Hillary. And by people I mean white males at an enormous margin.

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Junior McSpiffy
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My thought on this is that the media is really culpable. The condescension from them was palpable. "Will Trump concede gracefully?" All the "Rock The Vote" stuff. Just the media pounding people over and over with just how dismal Trump is as a candidate and a person. While I believe it, is there a point of fatigue where people hate being told just how stupid they are for even considering voting for him? How much of this was a backlash against the beard-strokers on TV telling people how the smart people are voting and gosh, why aren't you being one of the smart people?
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Mike Stiles
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GameCrossing wrote:
windsagio wrote:
People balked at voting for a woman.


I've said it before and I will say it again.... fuck you.

People balked at voting for THAT woman.


Chillax dude, I don't think you're sexist, I think you're a core Mormon. This is more about the poll discrepency, which doesn't apply to you.
 
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The real question is less where the PARTY went wrong (it's an interesting question, but another time/another place sort of thing)...

...but how all of the polls went so very wrong.

I mean, these aren't exactly 'asked a couple guys at the bar what they thought, wrote up an article on it' sort of stuff. There is a lot that goes into these, to make sure the audiences are sampled representatively, to eliminate outlier results that might bias the outcomes towards inaccurate results, etc.

It's a deeply studied science that is heavily used (successfully) in marketing efforts for myriads of brands, nation-wide and world-wide.

How did all of those go so far wrong is...a very curious question, indeed. It certainly speaks to a need to seriously revisit data collection and modelling...at the very least.
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XanderF wrote:
The real question is less where the PARTY went wrong (it's an interesting question, but another time/another place sort of thing)...

...but how all of the polls went so very wrong.

I mean, these aren't exactly 'asked a couple guys at the bar what they thought, wrote up an article on it' sort of stuff. There is a lot that goes into these, to make sure the audiences are sampled representatively, to eliminate outlier results that might bias the outcomes towards inaccurate results, etc.

It's a deeply studied science that is heavily used (successfully) in marketing efforts for myriads of brands, nation-wide and world-wide.

How did all of those go so far wrong is...a very curious question, indeed. It certainly speaks to a need to seriously revisit data collection and modelling...at the very least.


One of my truisms for video games (especially MMO's and Fighting games) is 'what people think they want and what they actually want are far different'. I think this election is an example of that.
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Junior McSpiffy
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XanderF wrote:
The real question is less where the PARTY went wrong (it's an interesting question, but another time/another place sort of thing)...

...but how all of the polls went so very wrong.

I mean, these aren't exactly 'asked a couple guys at the bar what they thought, wrote up an article on it' sort of stuff. There is a lot that goes into these, to make sure the audiences are sampled representatively, to eliminate outlier results that might bias the outcomes towards inaccurate results, etc.

It's a deeply studied science that is heavily used (successfully) in marketing efforts for myriads of brands, nation-wide and world-wide.

How did all of those go so far wrong is...a very curious question, indeed. It certainly speaks to a need to seriously revisit data collection and modelling...at the very least.


Three options

1) Trump voters lied to the pollsters
2) Trump voters are marginalized in the samples that pollsters used to gather their stats
3) Late breaking voters went overwhelmingly toward Trump and polls just can't track those well
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GameCrossing wrote:
windsagio wrote:
People balked at voting for a woman.


I've said it before and I will say it again.... fuck you.

People balked at voting for THAT woman.


Actually, fuck it.

I like you, Jr. I like you a lot.

That said, your defensiveness on this subject (when you're generally open an unapologetic with the things you believe) is massively telling.

UT went totally Trump, so your vote didn't matter any more than my (CA) vote did. That said, you're uncharacteristically combative over this, without even being directly called out.

This says one thing to me.... You know. At some subconscious level you know what's been done and what this reflects on our nation and on your state... and you hate it.

Edit: But you can't admit it. The internal conflict is making you uncharacteristically crass.
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Junior McSpiffy
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windsagio wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
windsagio wrote:
People balked at voting for a woman.


I've said it before and I will say it again.... fuck you.

People balked at voting for THAT woman.


Actually, fuck it.

I like you, Jr. I like you a lot.

That said, your defensiveness on this subject (when you're generally open an unapologetic with the things you believe) is massively telling.

UT went totally Trump, so your vote didn't matter any more than my (CA) vote did. That said, you're uncharacteristically combative over this, without even being directly called out.

This says one thing to me.... You know. At some subconscious level you know what's been done and what this reflects on our nation and on your state... and you hate it.

Edit: But you can't admit it. The internal conflict is making you uncharacteristically crass.


I do hate it. I hate Trump being president. But I would also hate Hillary being president. But my reaction would be different. With Hillary, I would be disappointed. With Trump, I am embarrassed. I am ashamed that we have this misogynist narcissist in charge.

But that doesn't change the fact that you are presenting the coastal elitist dismissive argument of how things didn't go your way. "Other people are just ugly." Did Hillary present a viable message beyond "I'm not him, look at how horrible he is?" How much does that have to do with her failure? But no... it's the stupid people who just don't know enough to vote for Hillary.

I am ashamed, but I am not going to say that she lost because she's a woman. She lost because the Hillary hatred vastly exceeded the Trump hatred and because those who wanted Trump (or didn't want Hillary) were far more passionate about it than those who wanted Hillary (or didn't want Trump).
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GameCrossing wrote:
Three options

1) Trump voters lied to the pollsters
2) Trump voters are marginalized in the samples that pollsters used to gather their stats
3) Late breaking voters went overwhelmingly toward Trump and polls just can't track those well
There was a lot of bullying this year (even on here). A lot. And most of it went in one direction, Clinton supporters bullying Trump supporters. So much that if anyone was a Trump supporter they were left out of the conversation, reinforcing their support but moving it to the shadows.
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Greg Michealson
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GameCrossing wrote:
XanderF wrote:
The real question is less where the PARTY went wrong (it's an interesting question, but another time/another place sort of thing)...

...but how all of the polls went so very wrong.

I mean, these aren't exactly 'asked a couple guys at the bar what they thought, wrote up an article on it' sort of stuff. There is a lot that goes into these, to make sure the audiences are sampled representatively, to eliminate outlier results that might bias the outcomes towards inaccurate results, etc.

It's a deeply studied science that is heavily used (successfully) in marketing efforts for myriads of brands, nation-wide and world-wide.

How did all of those go so far wrong is...a very curious question, indeed. It certainly speaks to a need to seriously revisit data collection and modelling...at the very least.


Three options

1) Trump voters lied to the pollsters
2) Trump voters are marginalized in the samples that pollsters used to gather their stats
3) Late breaking voters went overwhelmingly toward Trump and polls just can't track those well


It's not #1. I'll go with #3, with a sprinkling of #2 maybe. And by #2 I mean poop.
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Drew1365 wrote:
TheChin! wrote:
In a rare i_told_you_so moment, way back at the beginning of the campaign when people thought a Trump candidacy was ludicrous, I said that people were under estimating the number of hateful human beings there are in the USA. By ignoring this dark underbelly the Democrats thought people would be decent enough not to elect a monster. Turns out people are frustrated enough to think the monster will be on their side if they are nice to him. Enter the fascist.


So it looks like Democrats aren't going to learn anything at all.


Sure we are. We learned white men hated Hillary Clinton far more than pollsters imagined.

Bernie or third term Obama would have undoubtedly crushed Trump.
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GameCrossing wrote:
XanderF wrote:
The real question is less where the PARTY went wrong (it's an interesting question, but another time/another place sort of thing)...

...but how all of the polls went so very wrong.

I mean, these aren't exactly 'asked a couple guys at the bar what they thought, wrote up an article on it' sort of stuff. There is a lot that goes into these, to make sure the audiences are sampled representatively, to eliminate outlier results that might bias the outcomes towards inaccurate results, etc.

It's a deeply studied science that is heavily used (successfully) in marketing efforts for myriads of brands, nation-wide and world-wide.

How did all of those go so far wrong is...a very curious question, indeed. It certainly speaks to a need to seriously revisit data collection and modelling...at the very least.


Three options

1) Trump voters lied to the pollsters
2) Trump voters are marginalized in the samples that pollsters used to gather their stats
3) Late breaking voters went overwhelmingly toward Trump and polls just can't track those well

4. Democrats thought Clinton was going to win so they didn't go to the polls. I mentioned that months ago. Everyone told me I was crazy, 508 says Clinton is winning.
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mtagge wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
Three options

1) Trump voters lied to the pollsters
2) Trump voters are marginalized in the samples that pollsters used to gather their stats
3) Late breaking voters went overwhelmingly toward Trump and polls just can't track those well
There was a lot of bullying this year (even on here). A lot. And most of it went in one direction, Clinton supporters bullying Trump supporters. So much that if anyone was a Trump supporter they were left out of the conversation, reinforcing their support but moving it to the shadows.

Acutally, I wouldn't blame defenders of misogyny, mendacity, Christian Supremacy, racism, and bloviating buffoonery for retreating into the shadows because at least, I'd be reassured that they had at least shown a modicum of shame.

But tomorrow, unfortunately, those worthies will most likely be wearing their bigotry on their sleeves as a badge of honor.

So don't forget to remind your local retailers before Black Friday week that as per Donald Trump's 2016 campaign promise, "Happy Holidays", "Happy Hanukkah", and "Happy Chanukah" are no longer acceptable holiday greetings for the month of December and only "Merry Christmas" will be permitted from now on.


 
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