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Subject: Liberals do not despair rss

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Shawn Fox
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So my message to all the liberals today is this.

Do not despair, the Republicans only have 51 Senators. One is from Nevada, which Hillary just won, and he is up for reelection in 2018. Eight years of the Republicans crapping in the well has built up a lot of animosity, so the Republicans are going to have to pass bills entirely on their own.

It took the Democrats nearly 18 months to pass the ACA when they had 58 Senators and 257 members in the House. The Republicans are really going to struggle to get anything done with only 51 Senators and 241 members in the House (for non Americans, it requires at least 50 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House to pass a bill).

Members of Congress, especially Senators, generally have special interests in their district or state who care about things that do not align with the member's party. Not to mention Senators tend to be a lot more moderate with their politics than House members due to the need to appeal to a larger statewide audience. Since the only thing that is required to shut down a bill is to peel off 2 Senators, and as mentioned, one of the Senators up for election in 2 years is in a Democratic state, the Republicans are going to have a hard time getting anything done.

My point being, all these things that Trump is promising to do and that the Republican Congressional leaders are promising to do are about to slam into the wall of Washington's political gridlock.
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Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?
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Bwian, just
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As someone with a Republican Senator from a blue state (albeit not up for reelection until 2020), I can't say I've seen him depart from the party line much. Except for not endorsing Trump, I guess, and that's gotten him plenty of hate mail.
 
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Shawn Fox
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deadkenny wrote:
Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?

Personally I'm in favor or compromise. Passing bills would be easy if they are not the partisan type and they take into account all voters. Bills which clearly screw over one party of the other will struggle to get through Congress, as they should.
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sfox wrote:
So my message to all the liberals today is this.

Do not despair, the Republicans only have 51 Senators. One is from Nevada, which Hillary just won, and he is up for reelection in 2018. Eight years of the Republicans crapping in the well has built up a lot of animosity, so the Republicans are going to have to pass bills entirely on their own.

It took the Democrats nearly 18 months to pass the ACA when they had 58 Senators and 257 members in the House. The Republicans are really going to struggle to get anything done with only 51 Senators and 241 members in the House (for non Americans, it requires at least 50 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House to pass a bill).

Members of Congress, especially Senators, generally have special interests in their district or state who care about things that do not align with the member's party. Not to mention Senators tend to be a lot more moderate with their politics than House members due to the need to appeal to a larger statewide audience. Since the only thing that is required to shut down a bill is to peel off 2 Senators, and as mentioned, one of the Senators up for election in 2 years is in a Democratic state, the Republicans are going to have a hard time getting anything done.

My point being, all these things that Trump is promising to do and that the Republican Congressional leaders are promising to do are about to slam into the wall of Washington's political gridlock.


Advocating obstructionism?
How does it feel to be a flaming fucking hypocrite?
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Shawn Fox
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TheDashi wrote:
How does it feel to be a flaming fucking hypocrite?

I've no idea, why don't you tell us?
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deadkenny wrote:
Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?


It depends on what Republicans try to get done I presume. I doubt Dems will block everything Republicans try to do. Even though that's what Republicans did for eight straight years to Obama.
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Greg Michealson
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TheDashi wrote:
sfox wrote:
So my message to all the liberals today is this.

Do not despair, the Republicans only have 51 Senators. One is from Nevada, which Hillary just won, and he is up for reelection in 2018. Eight years of the Republicans crapping in the well has built up a lot of animosity, so the Republicans are going to have to pass bills entirely on their own.

It took the Democrats nearly 18 months to pass the ACA when they had 58 Senators and 257 members in the House. The Republicans are really going to struggle to get anything done with only 51 Senators and 241 members in the House (for non Americans, it requires at least 50 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House to pass a bill).

Members of Congress, especially Senators, generally have special interests in their district or state who care about things that do not align with the member's party. Not to mention Senators tend to be a lot more moderate with their politics than House members due to the need to appeal to a larger statewide audience. Since the only thing that is required to shut down a bill is to peel off 2 Senators, and as mentioned, one of the Senators up for election in 2 years is in a Democratic state, the Republicans are going to have a hard time getting anything done.

My point being, all these things that Trump is promising to do and that the Republican Congressional leaders are promising to do are about to slam into the wall of Washington's political gridlock.


Advocating obstructionism?
How does it feel to be a flaming fucking hypocrite?


There's a hint in your reply that you believe Republicans were obstructionists. Is that right?
 
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Bwian, just
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sfox wrote:
deadkenny wrote:
Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?

Personally I'm in favor or compromise. Passing bills would be easy if they are not the partisan type and they take into account all voters. Bills which clearly screw over one party of the other will struggle to get through Congress, as they should.

And for anything beyond ACA repeal, I think your calculus might apply. Even ACA "repeal and replace" would take some time. But I think there are way too many people demanding it end for any Republican senator to show some backbone on this one.

I suppose the Democrats might filibuster. I can see some Republican backbone showing up during the wonky Senate rules-making session, to keep the filibuster around. Less press, less closely tied to campaign promises.
 
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Bwian wrote:
sfox wrote:
deadkenny wrote:
Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?

Personally I'm in favor or compromise. Passing bills would be easy if they are not the partisan type and they take into account all voters. Bills which clearly screw over one party of the other will struggle to get through Congress, as they should.

And for anything beyond ACA repeal, I think your calculus might apply. Even ACA "repeal and replace" would take some time. But I think there are way too many people demanding it end for any Republican senator to show some backbone on this one.

I suppose the Democrats might filibuster. I can see some Republican backbone showing up during the wonky Senate rules-making session, to keep the filibuster around. Less press, less closely tied to campaign promises.


If they don't have an alternative to repeal, then up to 20 million people that depend on it for insurance will be SOL.

As will people with preexisting conditions.

I really despise today's Republican party. Fuck the poor and people with preexisting conditions. Trump could have used that as his slogan and probably still would have one.
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Shawn Fox
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Bwian wrote:
sfox wrote:
deadkenny wrote:
Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?

Personally I'm in favor or compromise. Passing bills would be easy if they are not the partisan type and they take into account all voters. Bills which clearly screw over one party of the other will struggle to get through Congress, as they should.

And for anything beyond ACA repeal, I think your calculus might apply. Even ACA "repeal and replace" would take some time. But I think there are way too many people demanding it end for any Republican senator to show some backbone on this one.

I suppose the Democrats might filibuster. I can see some Republican backbone showing up during the wonky Senate rules-making session, to keep the filibuster around. Less press, less closely tied to campaign promises.

The ACA is a massive, and I mean massive, handout to the pharmaceutical industry. The healthcare insurance industry may not be making as much as they had hoped off the ACA, but the ACA has put billions into the pockets of the pharmaceutical industry. They aren't going to give that up without a big fight.
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sfox wrote:
Bwian wrote:
sfox wrote:
deadkenny wrote:
Brilliant. So the Democrats will be able to block the Republicans from getting anything done while at the same time criticizing them for not getting anything done. Only now, unlike when it was Republicans doing the blocking, it will be "good gridlock"?

Personally I'm in favor or compromise. Passing bills would be easy if they are not the partisan type and they take into account all voters. Bills which clearly screw over one party of the other will struggle to get through Congress, as they should.

And for anything beyond ACA repeal, I think your calculus might apply. Even ACA "repeal and replace" would take some time. But I think there are way too many people demanding it end for any Republican senator to show some backbone on this one.

I suppose the Democrats might filibuster. I can see some Republican backbone showing up during the wonky Senate rules-making session, to keep the filibuster around. Less press, less closely tied to campaign promises.

The ACA is a massive, and I mean massive, handout to the pharmaceutical industry. The healthcare insurance industry may not be making as much as they had hoped off the ACA, but the ACA has put billions into the pockets of the pharmaceutical industry. They aren't going to give that up without a big fight.


It is a debacle. So is repealing it. There isn't a win in keeping it as is or repealing it. Fixing it could solve a lot of issues. But Republicans are good at fixing things. Except maybe for walls.

That's right. I'm bitter, damn it!
 
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Shawn Fox
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Bwian wrote:
As someone with a Republican Senator from a blue state (albeit not up for reelection until 2020), I can't say I've seen him depart from the party line much. Except for not endorsing Trump, I guess, and that's gotten him plenty of hate mail.

In the senate if a bill makes it tot he floor for a vote and doesn't pass, it is either a political stunt to get a no vote on the record or someone screwed up badly. The primary negotiations over the details of the bills all happen before the bill gets voted on in the first place.
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Hah... and as one of my friends pointed out to me, Ted Cruz is already planning his Cruz 2020 campaign. Cruz may be the only person in the country that wanted to be president more than Hillary did. There is no way Cruz will pass up opportunities to make Trump look bad during the next four years. Certain things Cruz will definitely vote for, but if he can vote against a bill that would help Trump in 2020 or pass a bill that makes Trump look bad, I guarantee you he'll do it.
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sfox wrote:
Hah... and as one of my friends pointed out to me, Ted Cruz is already planning his Cruz 2020 campaign...


So which party is Cruz planning on running for?
 
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There's a good sized list of Repubs who were against Trump. I'm wondering how many of them will continue their opposition to him in Congress and how many will toe the party line. Also, will Trump seek vengeance against them in big or little ways if at all?



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Donald wrote:
There's a good sized list of Repubs who were against Trump. I'm wondering how many of them will continue their opposition to him in Congress and how many will toe the party line. Also, will Trump seek vengeance against them in big or little ways if at all?


Hard to say.

John Kasich was supposed to give a major address at the American Enterprise Institute (a conservative think-tank) today. Speech cancelled, since it was obviously predicated on a Trump defeat.

It's way too early now to know whether Trump would draw a primary challenge in 2020.

Assuming Trump is still president by then.
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bjlillo wrote:
sfox wrote:
Hah... and as one of my friends pointed out to me, Ted Cruz is already planning his Cruz 2020 campaign. Cruz may be the only person in the country that wanted to be president more than Hillary did. There is no way Cruz will pass up opportunities to make Trump look bad during the next four years. Certain things Cruz will definitely vote for, but if he can vote against a bill that would help Trump in 2020 or pass a bill that makes Trump look bad, I guarantee you he'll do it.


Trump will probably put him on the Supreme Court.

That is an interesting idea. I'm sure all the Republicans in the Senate would vote for him so they don't have to deal with his shit anymore and they get a raving partisan hack in SCOTUS at the same time. Sounds like a win/win. Probably even get a few Democrats on board who are sick of him.
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Please explain your logic here.
Quote:

The Republicans are really going to struggle to get anything done with only 51 Senators and 241 members in the House (for non Americans, it requires at least 50 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House to pass a bill).


Per your own statement the can pass anything they please. If they set aside the filibuster, the writing will be on the wall. They've already shown willingness to walk all over the constitution. They've already shown willingness to vote no for 8 years.

Hell, if I were a Republican the filibuster would go down and for the next 2 years I would load every federal court slot with young 40ish (so they have a good track record and are unlikely to switch? hard right federal judges.

I would pass every right wing masturbatory fantasy law I could dream of over the next two years. Planned parenthood will be defeated and anti abortion federal district judges will stop birth control and block abortions for weeks or months at a time. The same judges won't block voter disenfranchisement efforts in the future.

Every pork project would go to republican and swing states.

There is literally nothing restraining republicans from running wild over the next 48 months. Even if nevada fell, that leaves Mike pens with the deciding vote.

So I dont see your point.
 
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mrspank wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
sfox wrote:
So my message to all the liberals today is this.

Do not despair, the Republicans only have 51 Senators. One is from Nevada, which Hillary just won, and he is up for reelection in 2018. Eight years of the Republicans crapping in the well has built up a lot of animosity, so the Republicans are going to have to pass bills entirely on their own.

It took the Democrats nearly 18 months to pass the ACA when they had 58 Senators and 257 members in the House. The Republicans are really going to struggle to get anything done with only 51 Senators and 241 members in the House (for non Americans, it requires at least 50 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House to pass a bill).

Members of Congress, especially Senators, generally have special interests in their district or state who care about things that do not align with the member's party. Not to mention Senators tend to be a lot more moderate with their politics than House members due to the need to appeal to a larger statewide audience. Since the only thing that is required to shut down a bill is to peel off 2 Senators, and as mentioned, one of the Senators up for election in 2 years is in a Democratic state, the Republicans are going to have a hard time getting anything done.

My point being, all these things that Trump is promising to do and that the Republican Congressional leaders are promising to do are about to slam into the wall of Washington's political gridlock.


Advocating obstructionism?
How does it feel to be a flaming fucking hypocrite?


There's a hint in your reply that you believe Republicans were obstructionists. Is that right?


I believe the left thought that republicans were obstructionists.
 
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I fully expect either side to try and stop something they dont like.
I also fully expect now that the republicans have everything, that the democrats will attempt every dirty trick they can to stop anything THEY DONT LIKE.
 
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maxo-texas wrote:
So I dont see your point.

The Democrats couldn't pass anything they pleased when they had 58 Senators. That isn't how Congress works. People seem to imagine that all the Senators are this single minded block of drones who all share exactly the same beliefs. That just isn't true. They are individuals, there are extremists, there are moderates, there are Republican Senators with LBGT children or who have poor friends or family who get insurance through the ACA.

It is not such an easy thing to pass highly partisan bills through Congress even if you have a supermajority. With only 51 votes it becomes damned near impossible to get anything at all done.
 
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sfox wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
How does it feel to be a flaming fucking hypocrite?

I've no idea, why don't you tell us?


What am I being a hypocrite about.
 
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TheDashi wrote:
I fully expect either side to try and stop something they dont like.
I also fully expect now that the republicans have everything, that the democrats will attempt every dirty trick they can to stop anything THEY DONT LIKE.


That is only if Chuck Schumer is just as much of a jackwagon douchenozzle as Harry Reid is/was.

If Chuck has any modicum of self-respect, then he will avoid being Reid 2.0.
 
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bjlillo wrote:


Quote:
Democrats are expected to target the Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona.[2] Republicans are expected to target Democratic-held seats in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, all of which voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 election.[3] Republicans could also target seats in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, and possibly New Jersey.[2] Other races may also become competitive.


If Trump isn't a dumpster fire after his first 18 months in office (massive "if" there of course) Dems could easily lose a bunch of Senate seats.


Historically, parties holding the White House tend to lose seats in midterm elections. So that mitigates the tough fact that the D's have more seats in the Senate to defend in '18.
 
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