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Terra Mystica» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Fakirs opening statistics - revisited rss

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Fakirs opening statistics revisited
(data collected via https://flat1701.github.io/tmstats/; if you don't understand the abbreviations, look up the reference here: *click*)

Unless stated otherwise in the text, the statistics use the following filters:
* 4p games
* played by players rated >= 1100 (i.e. "Rating Quartile" is set to "Best + Good")
* original map
* Cultists Errata
* no F&I factions allowed (and thus no present )
* even in stats which include games that allowed F&I factions (e.g. "All factions"), my stats never include games which allowed variable factions before the official rule update ("v5")
* no additional scoring (Outposts aka "edge", distance, SA/SH distance, Settlements aka "clusters")
* don't care about whether the game allowed VTO, TW6-8, BON10, or TE>>4 round scoring

These filters pretty much represent the settings of a 4p game with the TM base game (plus VTO and mini-expansions) as it's used in the Terra Mystica tournament. You may rightfully argue that VTO or the presence of some mini-expansion (or not) will affect the chances of a faction, but the sample sizes just get too small and the differences are not overly relevant (and where I suspect they may be, e.g. BON10 and Mermaids, I'll check). This is about round 1 where only the starting order matters, so VTO (variable turn order) or not is less relevant.

The data lines focus on the relevant information - most filters will be mentioned in the text instead. All observations should be taken with a grain of salt, as some of the sample sizes are quite small.

The main comparisons are based on the column labeled "Margin". It contains the VP difference of the given faction compared to the average VPs in the game. So if a game between factions A, B, C and D ends 130:120:110:100VP, then the average VP count is 115VP, and the margins are +15, +5, -5 and -15 for factions A, B, C and D respectively. If another game between the same factions ends 150:140:130:120, the respective margins will be exactly the same.
Still there is also a column labeled "VP" which gives the average VPs in the given scenario. Both "VP" and

"Margin" come with an indicator of an error range (the number behind the '±') - the smaller this number, the more reliable is the value itself. This is usually correlated with the number of samples which are given in the "Count" column: a low number of samples (less than 50 or so) can be tainted much easier by some freak results than a large sample size.

Included in "Observation 1" is a benchmark for games played by the remaining players (I'll refer to this group as "rated less than 1100" even though it includes unrated players too): the delta between their average with all factions compared to the faction whose openings I'm checking may give an indication how "difficult"/"forgiving" the faction is.

Observation 1: Fakirs are a very-much-below-average faction. I guess that the readers of this forum aren't surprised about this fact. The only map where they don't do totally bad is on F&I side 1 (keep in mind that the stats are only for games without expansion scoring, though the Fakirs actually get a worse margin on F&I side 1 if expansion scoring is enabled).
With tournament settings, the Fakir margin of good players is a whopping 8 VP lower than for the average faction. No wonder that the sample size is very small with just 454 games. This means that all following observations break down this small data set into even smaller subsets, which means that the margin of error is higher than in the opening stats for other factions, and less meaningful.
Desc. VP Margin Count
ORIGINAL MAP
games played by players rated >= 1100
All factions 128.58 ± 0.09 6.01 ± 0.09 33615
No F&I factions 128.62 ± 0.09 6.01 ± 0.09 33058
Fakirs 117.14 ± 0.73 -2.15 ± 0.74 454 (set for further analysis)

games played by players rated less than 1100
All factions 108.96 ± 0.10 -5.40 ± 0.09 37453
No F&I factions 108.97 ± 0.10 -5.42 ± 0.09 36718
Fakirs 96.71 ± 0.82 -15.92 ± 0.80 517

NEW F&I MAP ("side 1")
games played by players rated >= 1100
All factions 126.00 ± 0.52 5.29 ± 0.50 1129
No F&I factions 127.77 ± 0.67 6.12 ± 0.64 702
Fakirs 125.52 ± 2.99 3.97 ± 2.85 25

games played by players rated less than 1100
All factions 107.44 ± 0.57 -4.66 ± 0.52 1283
No F&I factions 108.19 ± 0.67 -4.54 ± 0.62 946
Fakirs 102.81 ± 3.12 -8.73 ± 2.87 31

REVISED MAP ("side 2")
games played by players rated >= 1100
All factions 128.38 ± 0.48 5.63 ± 0.45 1296
No F&I factions 129.35 ± 0.58 6.63 ± 0.55 859
Fakirs 116.89 ± 2.58 -5.38 ± 2.88 18

games played by players rated less than 1100
All factions 107.26 ± 0.61 -6.23 ± 0.52 1699
No F&I factions 108.59 ± 0.58 -5.16 ± 0.53 1105
Fakirs 100.46 ± 2.64 -10.12 ± 3.51 28



Observation 2: Given their special ability of carpet flight, Fakirs need some source for priests.
One obvious approach would be to build a SH (which gives one priest as income plus a distance extension for the carpet flight), but that's not a good idea, at least not for round 1, as the SH is horribly expensive.
The vast majority (80%) of the Fakir players in this sample chose to build a temple, 13 players even managed to build two temples and 9 upgraded the first TE to SA in round 1. Temple builders fare better than average Fakirs, but still significantly worse than average factions.
Looking at the breakdown of temple-building Fakirs, the only way to get closer to the competitive range seems to be ending round 1 with three dwellings and a temple.
Note 1: Nine Fakirs started with their SA, six of them with a SH>>5, 2 Air->1w scoring, and three of these six used BON5 (+1w, +3pw).
Note 2: 16 Fakirs managed a "dwelling rush", if you can call ending round 1 with 4 or 5 dwellings that. Bonus tiles of choice were BON1 (spade, 7 instances) or BON8 (priest, 5 instances).
Desc. VP Margin Count
SH 105.86 ± 2.08 -10.43 ± 2.38 37
SA 121.11 ± 5.06 -0.11 ± 3.05 9
TE 118.67 ± 0.83 -1.20 ± 0.85 354
no TE/SA/SH 114.19 ± 1.88 -3.04 ± 2.03 54

breakdown of temple builders:
2TE 121.31 ± 4.41 1.29 ± 3.32 13
TPTE 116.15 ± 2.02 -1.85 ± 2.11 48
* 0DTPTE 112.80 ± 3.56 -4.68 ± 3.17 15
* 1DTPTE 116.56 ± 2.25 -1.48 ± 2.63 32
* 2DTPTE 153.00 ± NaN 28.75 ± NaN 1
D0TPTE 112.19 ± 2.23 -6.43 ± 2.14 67
2D0TPTE 120.07 ± 1.15 -0.40 ± 1.24 167
3D0TPTE 123.51 ± 1.71 2.47 ± 1.86 59

breakdown of non-TE/SH builders:
3TP0TE 117.00 ± NaN 8.00 ± NaN 1
2TP0TE 114.13 ± 4.04 -4.22 ± 3.71 15
* 0D2TP0TE 139.00 ± NaN 11.25 ± NaN 1
* D2TP0TE 110.27 ± 3.22 -4.91 ± 3.36 11
* 2D2TP0TE 120.00 ± 15.28 -6.83 ± 15.17 3
TP0TE 117.44 ± 2.46 -0.64 ± 3.61 16
* 2DTP0TE 118.64 ± 2.73 -0.14 ± 4.33 11
* 3DTP0TE 114.80 ± 5.43 -1.75 ± 7.29 5

3D0TP0TE0SA0SH 100.00 ± 6.22 -17.58 ± 4.21 6
4D0TP0TE0SA0SH 118.15 ± 3.07 3.87 ± 3.89 13
5D0TP0TE0SA0SH 107.33 ± 12.24 -14.42 ± 7.45 3



Observation 3: The most popular starting bonus tile for Fakirs is the spade tile (BON1, 43%), followed by BON5 (3pw, 1w) and BON8 (priest)s with ca. 16% each. The popularity of BON1 seems justified, as it delivers the best margin, especially if you also build a temple.
Desc. VP Margin Count
BON1 (Spade) 121.56 ± 1.02 1.01 ± 1.09 194
* TE 122.59 ± 1.06 1.75 ± 1.15 174
* only D 111.50 ± 4.19 -4.20 ± 5.03 10
BON2 (Cult) 110.21 ± 3.18 -5.09 ± 2.79 33
BON3 (6C) 113.68 ± 3.20 -0.64 ± 2.97 25
BON4 (Ship+1) 121.33 ± 5.44 -0.42 ± 4.52 9
BON5 (3pw,1W) 114.97 ± 1.69 -2.20 ± 1.82 77
* TE 115.71 ± 1.96 -3.10 ± 2.21 55
BON6 (SA/SH VP) 109.43 ± 2.26 -11.08 ± 2.33 35
BON7 (TP VP) 116.33 ± 8.37 -3.88 ± 4.26 6
BON8 (1P) 115.26 ± 1.87 -5.12 ± 2.02 70
* TE 115.08 ± 2.41 -5.89 ± 2.61 50
* only D 119.00 ± 5.90 -1.46 ± 6.91 6
BON10 (Ship VP) 115.80 ± 8.59 -8.65 ± 7.11 5



Observation 4: 40% of the Fakirs are picked from all the last seat, i.e. when the competing factions are known and the player can be sure to get the desired bonus tile (which in three out of four such games is the spade tile, i.e. BON1 - significantly improving the margin). Seat #4 leads to the best margin (relatively speaking ), though interestingly they do about just as well when picked from seat #2.
Desc. VP Margin Count
seat 1 114.62 ± 1.87 -2.85 ± 1.63 66
seat 2 116.50 ± 1.60 -2.13 ± 1.84 86
seat 3 117.08 ± 1.61 -1.90 ± 1.59 118
seat 4 118.38 ± 1.08 -2.06 ± 1.11 184
* BON1 (Spade) 120.66 ± 1.22 -0.53 ± 1.30 140
* BON8 (1P) 116.10 ± 2.52 -5.47 ± 2.79 20



Observation 5: As expected, Fakirs win way less games than a "fair" share of 25%, but interestingly, they also lose (slightly) less than 25% of their games. Btw. 43 of the 71 winners got BON1 in round 1.
Desc. VP Margin Count
winner 135.03 ± 1.44 20.13 ± 1.09 71
* seat 1 133.50 ± 4.38 17.19 ± 2.75 8
* seat 2 142.25 ± 2.49 25.71 ± 2.81 12
* seat 3 134.33 ± 2.68 19.00 ± 2.55 21
* seat 4 133.03 ± 2.30 19.48 ± 1.19 30

2nd place 123.02 ± 0.95 5.69 ± 0.62 133
* seat 1 118.47 ± 2.21 3.91 ± 1.47 19
* seat 2 119.65 ± 1.51 6.38 ± 1.48 26
* seat 3 125.28 ± 1.91 6.65 ± 1.25 36
* seat 4 124.79 ± 1.63 5.32 ± 0.98 52

3rd place 113.72 ± 0.94 -5.84 ± 0.57 137
* seat 1 112.41 ± 2.89 -5.86 ± 1.51 27
* seat 2 115.25 ± 1.72 -4.61 ± 1.06 20
* seat 3 111.42 ± 1.88 -6.17 ± 1.31 33
* seat 4 115.14 ± 1.31 -6.06 ± 0.84 57

last 103.12 ± 1.12 -20.90 ± 0.83 113
* seat 1 100.92 ± 2.59 -20.15 ± 2.30 12
* seat 2 103.43 ± 1.71 -20.20 ± 1.38 28
* seat 3 100.25 ± 2.97 -23.54 ± 1.90 28
* seat 4 105.31 ± 1.67 -19.89 ± 1.35 45


Observation 6: One third of Fakirs were picked in games which had TP>>3 scoring in round 1, with slightly more of the Air variant than the Water variant. These were also the only scorings in which Fakirs achieved a positive margin, usually helped by BON1.
Desc. VP Margin Count
R1: TP>>3 120.91 ± 1.36 0.23 ± 1.34 145
* BON1 125.93 ± 1.96 5.29 ± 1.97 58
* BON3 122.83 ± 9.46 9.96 ± 8.03 6
* BON5 116.04 ± 2.47 -3.75 ± 2.64 28
* BON8 121.18 ± 2.98 -1.02 ± 3.16 22
* built TE 122.73 ± 1.48 1.69 ± 1.46 123
* built TE+2D 127.62 ± 2.04 5.16 ± 2.16 50
* built TE+3D 128.00 ± 3.47 5.69 ± 3.19 17



Observation 7: Less than 30% of Fakirs games used VTO (variable turn order). Which shows the lower popularity of Fakirs once it became clear that they require very special settings to be competitive. Fakirs did significantly worse in games with VTO, but so do most factions (cf. this statistic on BGG). Their delta in margin of 3.9 VP is higher than it is for the average base factions (2.8 VP). Nobody knows whether that's because Fakirs are particularly sensitive to VTO or because newer (and therfore VTO) games field more Mermaids, Engineers and Nomads than before.
94% of the non-VTO games were recorded before April 2015, only 19 since. Just 5 VTO games were recorded before April 2015.
Desc. VP Margin Count
no VTO 117.15 ± 0.88 -1.00 ± 0.88 321
VTO 117.11 ± 1.31 -4.93 ± 1.33 133



Observation 8: The Fakirs leech distribution is pretty similar to that of the average faction.
Desc. VP Margin Count
Power leeched by all factions in the tournament setting
0-3 125.29 ± 0.17 4.41 ± 0.17 9483
4-7 128.83 ± 0.14 6.14 ± 0.14 13643
8-11 131.09 ± 0.19 7.17 ± 0.18 7748
12-15 133.15 ± 0.39 8.15 ± 0.36 1938
16+ 131.89 ± 1.17 7.77 ± 1.04 246

Power leeched by Fakirs in the tournament setting
0-3 114.29 ± 1.36 -4.03 ± 1.40 118
4-7 117.34 ± 1.00 -1.86 ± 1.06 218
8-11 120.41 ± 1.81 -0.67 ± 1.75 95
12-15 117.05 ± 3.72 0.36 ± 3.47 19
16+ 113.00 ± 9.60 -9.06 ± 2.70 4



Observation 9: FAV11 (Earth1, D>>2) is by far the most popular favor tile for Fakirs. It isn't nearly as successful though as the two next popular favors FAV8 (Air2, +4pw) and FAV9 (Fire1, +3c). FAV11 is also the most popular amongst those who gained two favors by either building a second temple or upgrading to SA.
Desc. VP Margin Count
1TE
FAV6 (W2) 113.08 ± 5.73 -0.79 ± 3.45 12
1TE
FAV7 (E2) 116.56 ± 3.15 -3.39 ± 2.90 18
1TE
FAV8 (A2) 121.37 ± 1.76 2.03 ± 1.99 59
1TE
FAV9 (F1) 120.30 ± 2.73 1.13 ± 2.85 43
1TE
FAV10 (W1) 118.54 ± 3.55 1.62 ± 5.12 13
1TE
FAV11 (E1) 117.87 ± 1.13 -2.82 ± 1.15 195
1TE
FAV12 (A1) 117.00 ± NaN -10.25 ± NaN 1

2TE
FAV6 (W2) 117.00 ± 17.00 -3.25 ± 1.50 2
2TE
FAV7 (E2) 122.71 ± 5.69 2.00 ± 4.66 7
2TE
FAV8 (A2) 137.33 ± 2.03 12.92 ± 7.42 3
2TE
FAV9 (F1) 109.00 ± 11.59 -0.33 ± 7.07 3
2TE
FAV10 (W1) 113.50 ± 6.50 -14.50 ± 1.75 2
2TE
FAV11 (E1) 121.67 ± 5.04 1.92 ± 3.58 9

SA
FAV7 (E2) 120.80 ± 6.37 2.25 ± 4.18 5
SA
FAV8 (A2) 124.29 ± 5.96 1.96 ± 3.44 7
SA
FAV9 (F1) 122.50 ± 16.50 -0.88 ± 2.12 2
SA
FAV11 (E1) 115.25 ± 7.20 -6.31 ± 4.78 4



Observation 10: Below I collected all scenarios which gave Fakirs a positive margin: TP>>3 scoring in round 1, have either two temples (very small sample size) or one temple plus three dwellings at the end of round 1, take favor FAV8. FAv8 seemingly doesn't mix well with BON1, but certainly with TP>>3/Air.
Desc. VP Margin Count
R1: TP>>3 120.91 ± 1.36 0.23 ± 1.34 145
BON1 (Spade) 121.56 ± 1.02 1.01 ± 1.09 194
2TE 121.31 ± 4.41 1.29 ± 3.32 13
3D0TPTE 123.51 ± 1.71 2.47 ± 1.86 59
FAV8 (A2) 122.36 ± 1.66 2.49 ± 1.77 69

R1: TP>>3,
BON1, TE 127.47 ± 1.99 6.30 ± 2.04 53
R1: not TP>>3
BON1, TE 120.45 ± 1.21 -0.25 ± 1.36 121

TE, FAV8 122.15 ± 1.74 2.55 ± 1.94 62
* BON1 (Spade) 121.13 ± 2.43 -0.32 ± 2.23 24
* BON2 (Cult) 126.63 ± 4.92 9.75 ± 3.82 8
* BON5 (3pw,1W) 130.25 ± 3.20 15.10 ± 4.43 12
* BON8 (1P) 117.73 ± 3.60 -7.82 ± 4.41 11



Conclusion:
Fakirs suck - it's that simple. Even the best opening available to them (3D + TE, not easy to achieve, especially since they start with 2-4 power less than everybody else) yields a worse margin than the average of all factions with all openings.



=================


New opening statistics for base factions:
- Alchemists: Alchemists opening statistics - revisited
- Fakirs: Fakirs opening statistics - revisited
- Mermaids: Mermaids opening statistics - revisited
- Witches: Witches opening statistics - revisited


Older opening statistics for base factions:
- Alchemists: Alchemist opening statistics
- Auren: Auren opening statistics
- Chaos Magicians: Chaos Magicians openings statistics
- Cultists: Cultists opening statistics
- Darklings: Darklings opening statistics
- Dwarves: Dwarves opening statistics
- Engineers: Engineers opening statistics
- Fakirs: Fakirs opening statistics
- Giants: Giants opening statistics
- Halflings: Halflings opening statistics
- Mermaids: Mermaids opening statistics
- Nomads: Nomads opening statistics
- Swarmlings: Swarmling opening statistics
- Witches: Witches opening statistics

Older opening statistics for expansion factions:
- Riverwalkers: Riverwalker opening statistics
- Yetis: Yetis opening statistics
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