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Subject: Can we trust Obama approval rating? rss

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Polling doesn't seem so great, so is Obama really as loved as we are supposed to believe?
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He's not loved and has had negative or neutral approval ratings for much of his presidency. We might attribute a large part of the recent improvement to media concentrating on not-Obamas like Trump and Clinton. He certainly looks good by comparison.

 
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Andrew Bartosh

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You can trust it as much as you trust any information gathered from polling. Which is to say that it may be accurate, may not be, but it is also the likely best source of information regarding satisfaction with the president currently available to us.

Basically, like any poll, you take it with a grain of salt.

Seriously, the Trump election isn't exactly the source of some weird revelation regarding polling or anything. Polling has always had flaws, it is just often the best information we have regarding this kind of stuff.
 
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Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.
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glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?
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TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?
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TheDashi wrote:
Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Depends on the specific poll, most likely. I imagine the latter could certainly have factored into some of them, but if you believe every single poll suffered from that, I think you're being silly.
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glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


What?
ALLLLL this polling which led people to believe that Hillary was a shoe in, there couldn't possibly have been any influence or agenda in any of them?
 
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TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


What?
ALLLLL this polling which led people to believe that Hillary was a shoe in, there couldn't possibly have been any influence or agenda in any of them?


Telling people that their candidate is ahead in the polling is not a good way to get out the vote so it was probably just a mistake, not an "agenda" if by "agenda" you mean "plan to get Hillary elected."
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rylfrazier wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


What?
ALLLLL this polling which led people to believe that Hillary was a shoe in, there couldn't possibly have been any influence or agenda in any of them?


Telling people that their candidate is ahead in the polling is not a good way to get out the vote so it was probably just a mistake, not an "agenda" if by "agenda" you mean "plan to get Hillary elected."


Riiiiggghhhtttttt. I mean if someone thought it was HOPELESS to go vote for their candidate, why would they bother going?
 
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TheDashi wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


What?
ALLLLL this polling which led people to believe that Hillary was a shoe in, there couldn't possibly have been any influence or agenda in any of them?


Telling people that their candidate is ahead in the polling is not a good way to get out the vote so it was probably just a mistake, not an "agenda" if by "agenda" you mean "plan to get Hillary elected."


Riiiiggghhhtttttt. I mean if someone thought it was HOPELESS to go vote for their candidate, why would they bother going?


Listen nobody can possibly talk you out of your belief that no matter what the media does it's a secret conspiracy of some kind. I hear if you smear butter on the inside of the tin foil it REALLY keeps those evil MSM rays out.
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TheDashi wrote:
Polling doesn't seem so great, so is Obama really as loved as we are supposed to believe?

What's wrong with polling?
 
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AndrewRogue wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Depends on the specific poll, most likely. I imagine the latter could certainly have factored into some of them, but if you believe every single poll suffered from that, I think you're being silly.


Didnt most polls have Trump within the margin of error? I still dont see where the issue is, its not like he blew her out of the water, the result was directly in line with much of the data. The only way the polls failed was in that they didnt forecast the dismal turnout because most of America thinks both Trump and Hillary are hot garbage.



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galad2003 wrote:
Yep, every right winger who said the media is pro-Hillary, pro-liberal just got vindicated in the election (in their mind)so expect more of this.


Blah blah blah...
 
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brkmrtn wrote:
Didnt most polls have Trump within the margin of error? I still dont see where the issue is, its not like he blew her out of the water, the result was directly in line with much of the data. The only way the polls failed was in that they didnt forecast the dismal turnout because most of America thinks both Trump and Hillary are hot garbage.


Well, that's kind of a large part of my point. Many people don't seem to actually understand how polls work, hence topics like this.
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AndrewRogue wrote:
brkmrtn wrote:
Didnt most polls have Trump within the margin of error? I still dont see where the issue is, its not like he blew her out of the water, the result was directly in line with much of the data. The only way the polls failed was in that they didnt forecast the dismal turnout because most of America thinks both Trump and Hillary are hot garbage.


Well, that's kind of a large part of my point. Many people don't seem to actually understand how polls work, hence topics like this.


Seriously?
 
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TheDashi wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


What?
ALLLLL this polling which led people to believe that Hillary was a shoe in, there couldn't possibly have been any influence or agenda in any of them?


Telling people that their candidate is ahead in the polling is not a good way to get out the vote so it was probably just a mistake, not an "agenda" if by "agenda" you mean "plan to get Hillary elected."


Riiiiggghhhtttttt. I mean if someone thought it was HOPELESS to go vote for their candidate, why would they bother going?



Spite.
 
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TheDashi wrote:
AndrewRogue wrote:
brkmrtn wrote:
Didnt most polls have Trump within the margin of error? I still dont see where the issue is, its not like he blew her out of the water, the result was directly in line with much of the data. The only way the polls failed was in that they didnt forecast the dismal turnout because most of America thinks both Trump and Hillary are hot garbage.


Well, that's kind of a large part of my point. Many people don't seem to actually understand how polls work, hence topics like this.


Seriously?


The polling gave moderate Clinton supporters less incentive to vote so if anything, having her in the lead helped Trump. The low turnout is why she lost, not to mention she still won the popular vote by a decent margin.
 
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TheDashi wrote:
Seriously?


Yeah. I mean, apologies if I misunderstand you, but as near as I can tell this topic is basically "Look, the Presidential race polls were wrong, so maybe everyone thinks Obama actually sucks, right?"

You don't actually bring up the specific polls or anything regarding how their conducted, so there really isn't a conversation to be had about them. Polls featuring errors in their methodology isn't really a new concept either (in fact, hasn't this board discussed the issue of loading poll questions several times in the past?). And that's ignoring the fact that polls are based on statistical extrapolations to begin with.

So I mean, since day 1 it's always been possible for their to be inaccuracies, fudging, etc. I mean, if that's all you want to say, that's fine, I just don't find that statement particularly worth a topic. It's like asking if the sky is blue or if water is wet.
 
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glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


Why do you? It's like the Robert Byrd, Southern Strategy/Dixie-crats discussion everyday... everyday... everyday...

Make a point
Who?
Make a point.
BUT?

etc...
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AndrewRogue wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Seriously?


Yeah. I mean, apologies if I misunderstand you, but as near as I can tell this topic is basically "Look, the Presidential race polls were wrong, so maybe everyone thinks Obama actually sucks, right?"

You don't actually bring up the specific polls or anything regarding how their conducted, so there really isn't a conversation to be had about them. Polls featuring errors in their methodology isn't really a new concept either (in fact, hasn't this board discussed the issue of loading poll questions several times in the past?). And that's ignoring the fact that polls are based on statistical extrapolations to begin with.

So I mean, since day 1 it's always been possible for their to be inaccuracies, fudging, etc. I mean, if that's all you want to say, that's fine, I just don't find that statement particularly worth a topic. It's like asking if the sky is blue or if water is wet.


Can we trust an Obama approval number from pollsters, when they cant get an election right?
How different is his approval rating from reality?
Not that it even really matters, other than people on the left to throw out how much EVERYONE loves the guy.
 
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TheDashi wrote:
Can we trust an Obama approval number from pollsters, when they cant get an election right?

Which pollsters got the election wrong?
 
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TheDashi wrote:
Polling doesn't seem so great, so is Obama really as loved as we are supposed to believe?

and...
If its "off" by a couple so...

I guess everyone hates his guts then?
 
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TheDashi wrote:
Can we trust an Obama approval number from pollsters, when they cant get an election right?
How different is his approval rating from reality?
Not that it even really matters, other than people on the left to throw out how much EVERYONE loves the guy.


1. In absence of any actual relevant information regarding the polls, it is impossible to say how much or how little you should trust specific pollsters. And further, an individual poll being wrong does not particularly throw the entire concept of polling on it's head.

The problems that seem to have occurred during the Election have always been there. Again, polling has -always- had potential issues. That doesn't mean it's useless, just that you need to inform yourself and remember what a poll actually represents.

2. No idea and realistically kinda impossible to actually figure out.
 
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TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
glundee1 wrote:
Ugh. Another terrible consequence of this election will be the widespread acceptance of data trutherism in other domains because of polling errors.

To answer your question- They are not the same kind of poll- to accurately poll approval rating you just need to get a fairly representative sample of the population (based on census data, etc.) Polling failed for the general election mostly because of flaws in likely voter models.


Polling ERROR? Or Polling Agendas?


Why do I even bother?


What?
ALLLLL this polling which led people to believe that Hillary was a shoe in, there couldn't possibly have been any influence or agenda in any of them?


Well she did get more actual votes than Trump so the data wasn't entirely incorrect. It was just incorrect about those votes falling poorly for her based on the electoral divisions.
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