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Subject: So, who won the election? rss

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Jason Reid
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I'm just going to blather on a bit. Don't worry, at least I know it.

Anyway, who won the election?

Republicans? Certainly, in a sense. They beat the Democrats, and few things compare to that.

Conservatives? Maybe, maybe only pyhrrically. Certainly some of their issues will advance...for one example I suspect that the relationship between the State and the Environment will mirror conventional conservative wisdom during a Trump Presidency. But the Republican Party just won a national election propelled by a large contingent of people who think that the government has a responsibility to "do something" about the fact that they don't have the jobs that they want. Among other things, Trump promised a trillion dollars in government-sponsored infrastructure spending to that end. In addition, while parts of Obamacare will go away, I doubt that the notion of healthcare as a near-universal entitlement is going anywhere anytime soon.

Social Conservatives? Now I think we're getting somewhere. Scalia will certainly be replaced by a Justice in his own mold, but that's largely a wash anyway. What Trump does with his eventual second appointment to the court will be telling. I suspect he's not personally committed to reversing Roe, but he knows that he's indebted to a large contingent of single-issue voters that are looking for exactly one thing in return. You can play a policy shell-game with just about any other voting bloc, but not them.

Somehow I keep hearing that the Spirit of America is, basically, "Fiscally Conservative but Socially Liberal". I'm mostly willing to accept that (though I think "fiscally conservative" often means "spend money on the things I care about, and nothing else"). It's my guess, however, that what we're due from a Trump Presidency is possibly exactly the opposite.

I consider that a fairly impressive achievement by the Evangelical voting bloc. The policy will of America is against them...there hasn't been a nationwide poll on the matter in awhile, but the last I could find (from 2013) is that > 6 in 10 Americans oppose overturning Roe. And yet there's a decent chance it actually happens now.

Anyway, blathering done. I realize I could have gone and found links to support all of this stuff, but that's just too much work for me right now. I'm not particularly wedded to any of this thinking, but it's just been bouncing around in my head for a week now.
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
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The trolls.
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Les Marshall
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Way too soon to tell. We haven't seen Trump govern yet and no president wields power in a vacuum.

Trump has already ceded any argument that gay marriage should be overturned, calling it a settled issue. He is still outwardly committed to overturning Roe v. Wade but, he cannot guarantee what any single appointee will do assuming he gets past a Democratic filibuster and even then, the court is loathe to reverse itself. He "may be" supportive of evangelical policies but, he can also hide behind "states rights" to avoid taking a strong position on the federal government. (Does anyone really think he's strongly committed to socially conservative positions?)

On the economy, his rhetoric so far has been hostile to trade pacts and seems to promise some form of trade war. Again, he has to deal with a congress which may not be cooperative. For all the Bill Clinton signed NAFTA and Obama is pushing TPP, these trade deals were not originated in the democratic party. Reagan was a lion for trade liberalization and the GOP pushed for such measures for years over the objections of trade unions and blue collar workers. IF he succeeds in triggering a trade war, the Trump blue collar voters may well win a pyrrhic victory until the economy falters over tariffs and we return to Carter era problems.

Those that support the Alt Right culture espoused by Steve Bannon clearly got a boost. They will enjoy a much higher profile for a while. Once again, the GOP will need to carefully examine how to engage as they risk alienating some of the grass roots that Breitbart represents versus the putative bigger tent approach that reflects demographic changes.

On foreign policy, the big winner at this moment is Putin. He seems to have gained an appeasement minded chief executive in the US which has unsettled our erstwhile European allies. I would expect Russia to begin pushing a little bit harder to influence the region near it's borders and make Europe a little more anxious about boarder security. Syria's strong man also seems likely to cling to power and will have greater ability now to roll up the rebels. Combined, they may well push ISIS out of Syria (as Iraq is doing now) but it will be a hostile place for Syrian refugees to return so host nations may not get much relief even if hostilities finally cease. Even if Trump reneges on the Iran deal, which frees their hands to once again pursue nuclear enrichment, they have gained a great deal of regional influence, especially in Shiia dominated Iraq and they may be subtle enough to stay under the radar of a more isolationist minded Trump.
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T. Nomad
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Socially liberal by what measure?
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It seems too early to tell if Putin is really going to enjoy dealing with Trump, despite the apparent strategic windfall. It is possible that a mercurial leader may present Russia with greater tactical challenges than a relatively predictable & orthodox administration. It is also questionable what precisely Russia can offer a pragmatic US leader long term while it is all too clear what Russia would like from the US- tacit recognition of territorial acquisitions, no more sanctions etc. Although of course it is difficult to be precisely sure about the Putin/ Trump relationship and their contacts up until now.
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MGK
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Rulesjd wrote:
Trump has already ceded any argument that gay marriage should be overturned, calling it a settled issue.


why on earth does anybody assume that Trump is ever committed to anything he says ever
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Les Marshall
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mightygodking wrote:
Rulesjd wrote:
Trump has already ceded any argument that gay marriage should be overturned, calling it a settled issue.


why on earth does anybody assume that Trump is ever committed to anything he says ever


You'd have to ask the people that voted for him and who seemed to think he was more honest than Crooked Hillary and Lyin' Ted.

The question posed in the OP was "Who won?" Certainly Trump did. Did social conservatives who wanted to roll back gay marriage among other things?

We may have a very long wait to see what the ultimate effect of a Trump presidency may be depending on events during his term and whether his governance is radical or merely incremental.
 
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Seth Brown
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jasonwocky wrote:

Somehow I keep hearing that the Spirit of America is, basically, "Fiscally Conservative but Socially Liberal". I'm mostly willing to accept that (though I think "fiscally conservative" often means "spend money on the things I care about, and nothing else"). It's my guess, however, that what we're due from a Trump Presidency is possibly exactly the opposite.

This strikes me as depressingly on point.
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Chapel
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Trump won. Everyone else is indeterminate at this point.
 
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Jason Reid
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MWChapel wrote:
Trump won.


Did he, though?
 
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Donald
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I'm going to guess "the Lawyers".

There's going to be lawsuits and constitutionality questions galore with this administration. The lawyers are going to be racking up the overtime.

 
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Pete Goch
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We all lost. It won't be long and the rest will realize that. Even the orange one.
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Lynette
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Roe V. Wade is going nowhere. Seriously it just isn't no matter who he appoints.


HOWEVER there is a huge gap between the concepts of Abortion on Demand, paid for often by tax dollars right up to almost birth - One extreme side VS the other extreme side of totally outlawing all abortion no mater how early except for rape, incest and jeopardizing the life of the mother.

The reality is that the vast majority of Americans feelings about what should or should no be legal fall between those two extremes and finding a balance we can mostly live with and stop fighting endlessly over of the challenge.

I think Hillary lost in part not just because she wants to keep abortion legal, but because part of the platform she ran on included overturning the Hyde Amendment. That and partial birth abortions are the issues that take mostly pro-choice people like me and drive us to vote with the Pro-life crowd.

I didn't in this election because Trump is a total asshole, but I know others who decided to stomach Trump rather than see the Hyde Amendment be repealed. An ass who says mean things is better than letting tax dollars be used for murdering innocent babies in their minds. It was an issue that drove them to the polls to vote against Hillary no matter who was running against her.

The devil is often in the details and boy did that turn out to matter in this election after all.







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Jason Reid
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Meerkat wrote:
Roe V. Wade is going nowhere. Seriously it just isn't no matter who he appoints.


That's a comforting sentiment. But I've just seen Donald J. Trump elected President. My notion of what's impossible has shrunk over the past few weeks.
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Lynette
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jasonwocky wrote:
Meerkat wrote:
Roe V. Wade is going nowhere. Seriously it just isn't no matter who he appoints.


That's a comforting sentiment. But I've just seen Donald J. Trump elected President. My notion of what's impossible has shrunk over the past few weeks.


Ok look... if Bush who actually is Pro-life couldn't get it done, Donald who is only pandering certainly won't.

Even if he got to appoint 3 judges (which is unlikely) a proper test case which presented something NEW would have to make it all the way to the high court, and then get ruled on against the former ruling but in a way that still holds up legally WHICH could toss all kinds of privacy rights into question not just abortion, so if they cannot do something very narrow even conservative judges are most likely only going to do some thing that allows for more kinds of regulation. Not something that undercuts the whole concept of a right to privacy.

EVEN THEN that would kick it back to the States to LEGISLATE restrictions... and after all these years it just isn't going garner the same kind of support from voters it did back in the 1960s. So you might get more limits like it only being legal until 18 weeks or something (Which I would support btw) but totally banned in most States just isn't going to happen. Even if the court opened the door to a full legal ban... which isn't likely in the first place.

Trumps win had reasons that included rejecting Hilary making abortion state supported. But the Pro=life movement just doesn't have the numbers to make it fully illegal nationwide again even if Roe were overturned completely.

Again... MOST people are in the middle ground on this topic. If it got back to the State level we might support and even welcome some needed restrictions, but would NOT support a full ban.




 
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Jason Reid
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Meerkat wrote:
jasonwocky wrote:
Meerkat wrote:
Roe V. Wade is going nowhere. Seriously it just isn't no matter who he appoints.


That's a comforting sentiment. But I've just seen Donald J. Trump elected President. My notion of what's impossible has shrunk over the past few weeks.


Ok look... if Bush who actually is Pro-life couldn't get it done, Donald who is only pandering certainly won't.


He's pandering, but unlike the rest of the Republican establishment he has no incentive to simply pay lip service to the single-issue voters on this topic. He doesn't need to string the anti-abortion crowd along in order to keep them members of the Republican coalition. He doesn't have to give a crap about the long term electoral prospects of the Republican Party because he doesn't owe the establishment anything. If he can buy their votes for life with an issue that he doesn't care all that much about one way or another, I wouldn't bet heavily against it.

Quote:
Even if he got to appoint 3 judges (which is unlikely)


Bush had to deal with a relatively spry Liberal coalition in the SCOTUS. Trump does not. The Democratic filibuster firewall in the Senate is in danger in 2 years due to the seat mix in play. Not only could he get 3 justices, he could get 3 of his choice (since I imagine they'll ultimately yield Scalia's seat to a theocrat if he nominates one).

Quote:
a proper test case which presented something NEW would have to make it all the way to the high court, and then get ruled on against the former ruling but in a way that still holds up legally WHICH could toss all kinds of privacy rights into question not just abortion, so if they cannot do something very narrow even conservative judges are most likely only going to do some thing that allows for more kinds of regulation. Not something that undercuts the whole concept of a right to privacy.


Maybe I'm overestimating the competence of the 33 Republican controlled state legislatures, but I imagine this would take all of a few months.

Quote:
EVEN THEN that would kick it back to the States to LEGISLATE restrictions... and after all these years it just isn't going garner the same kind of support from voters it did back in the 1960s. So you might get more limits like it only being legal until 18 weeks or something (Which I would support btw) but totally banned in most States just isn't going to happen. Even if the court opened the door to a full legal ban... which isn't likely in the first place.


That happens, and then what? The anti-abortion lobby packs it up and disperses while "babies are being murdered" in New York and California? No way. There's too much money and clout at stake. They need a new goal to keep their apparatus relevant. The next move, after their insufferable victory lap, is certainly to push for federal restrictions. Trump wouldn't sign any of them into law, but the next Republican President absolutely would start to chip away and away.

Maybe enough of the rank-and-file members of the movement truly believe that it should be a "state issue" and lay down their arms, but I'm not holding my breath.

Quote:
Trumps win had reasons that included rejecting Hilary making abortion state supported. But the Pro=life movement just doesn't have the numbers to make it fully illegal nationwide again even if Roe were overturned completely.

Again... MOST people are in the middle ground on this topic. If it got back to the State level we might support and even welcome some needed restrictions, but would NOT support a full ban.


The Pro-life movement doesn't have to outnumber the rest of America on the topic to get their way. They just need to have a critical mass, and care more about the issue, in order to override the will of the people.

Do I think it's likely that all of the above comes to pass? Like, > 50% chance? Probably not. But I think it's much closer than you do.
 
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