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Subject: A recession is probably coming early next year rss

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Shawn Fox
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So I was thinking about this last night, trying to figure out what I wanted to do with my money based on what I know right now. My theory is that both consumers and businesses will pull back spending due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's presidency. Not everyone will, of course, but enough will that it will drop us into a recession, which will likely feed on itself and get worse through the first half of 2017.

A lot of what Trump has been talking about has big economic impacts on many individuals and businesses. It just makes sense for everyone to be a bit cautious until we see what Trump and the Republicans are going to do. Not just in the US, but worldwide due to all the talk of trade protectionism.

A big dose of negativity coming into Christmas just can't be good for retail sales over the next month either. If I'm right we should see results pretty quick in early December as retailers talk about how things are going with their holiday sales.
 
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Please do let us all know what you decide to do. Given your "quality analysis" I would very much like to avoid doing the same as you.
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Harmonica
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Well stock exchanges are up and so our pension funds.

Maybe I retire early, thanks to mr. Trump.
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anemaat wrote:
Well stock exchanges are up and so our pension funds.

Maybe I retire early, thanks to mr. Trump.


Careful now, you're contradicting the narrative. Nothing good is supposed to happen now that Trump has plunged the world into a "dark age".
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Shawn Fox
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deadkenny wrote:
Please do let us all know what you decide to do. Given your "quality analysis" I would very much like to avoid doing the same as you.

I shorted XRT @ 45.15, pretty confident I'll make money off it.
 
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Harmonica
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Dark ages? .... on your continent! laugh

Finally stimili to unite Europe and build a proper defense and common foreign policy.
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Shawn Fox
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deadkenny wrote:
anemaat wrote:
Well stock exchanges are up and so our pension funds.

Maybe I retire early, thanks to mr. Trump.


Careful now, you're contradicting the narrative. Nothing good is supposed to happen now that Trump has plunged the world into a "dark age".

Anyone that uses the short term direction of the stock market to predict the future direction of the stock market is going to fare very poorly. I've put my money where my mouth is, although I'm still close to 100% long with an addition 20% short position in XRT. I'll probably take profits in some of my long positions as well, but I don't expect to end up with more than 20% cash.

I just think a lot of caution right now is a really good idea. If the market continues to go up, I'll probably still match the market as my long positions should do quite a bit better than XRT. If the market goes down, I expect to beat the market handily (although still probably be somewhat negative).
 
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Leo Zappa
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For a lot of the United States the last recession never ended, especially from the standpoint of employment. I know my region of western Pennsylvania has remained economically depressed. I'm not sure anyone here will notice if another 'official' recession comes along.
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Shawn Fox
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desertfox2004 wrote:
For a lot of the United States the last recession never ended, especially from the standpoint of employment. I know my region of western Pennsylvania has remained economically depressed. I'm not sure anyone here will notice if another 'official' recession comes along.


Based on this graph, I'd say at least 300,000 people would notice. Looks like total employment in Pennsylvania is +100,000 vs. what it was in 2009, so the economy is clearly doing better than it was prior to the recession.

 
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J.D. Hall
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sfox wrote:
desertfox2004 wrote:
For a lot of the United States the last recession never ended, especially from the standpoint of employment. I know my region of western Pennsylvania has remained economically depressed. I'm not sure anyone here will notice if another 'official' recession comes along.


Based on this graph, I'd say at least 300,000 people would notice. Looks like total employment in Pennsylvania is +100,000 vs. what it was in 2009, so the economy is clearly doing better than it was prior to the recession.



Probably because he's talking about western PA -- a lot of farms and rusted-out steel mills. All you jagoffs shifting paper around and making boucoup don't understand why the majority of Americans want to hang your worthless asses from the highest flag pole. Playing the stock market can make you money. Doesn't do one goddamn thing for anyone else. People who grow food, or make airplane engines, or create new medicines, those people work. You people suck off the teat of capitalism.

And if the recession comes, doubt if my neighborhood would notice either. Out in rural America, we don't get any attention except to be called "flyover states."
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Shawn Fox
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Looking at market sectors gives a very different view of winners and losers since Trump was elected. Energy, telecom, utilities, and information technology have all done well. Manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and banking have all done poorly.

I think my bet against retail is going to pay off really well. The average consumer is about to get fucked by Trump. I've already made 1% today, which doesn't mean much I admit. Short term the market goes up and down, but I think we'll see a big drop in retail after the black friday numbers come in and retailers start to panic.
 
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Shawn Fox
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remorseless1 wrote:

Probably because he's talking about western PA -- a lot of farms and rusted-out steel mills. All you jagoffs shifting paper around and making boucoup don't understand why the majority of Americans want to hang your worthless asses from the highest flag pole. Playing the stock market can make you money. Doesn't do one goddamn thing for anyone else. People who grow food, or make airplane engines, or create new medicines, those people work. You people suck off the teat of capitalism.

And if the recession comes, doubt if my neighborhood would notice either. Out in rural America, we don't get any attention except to be called "flyover states."

The stock market is dumb, I admit it and I fully understand that it is not beneficial to the vast majority of the american population. I think people should pay higher tax rates on gains from the stock market at minimum. I also very much disagree with those who claim that people who push paper around on the market are doing any sort of useful activity.

That said, pushing paper around can put money in my pockets, so why shouldn't I? I didn't create the system, I just benefit from it. Why can't I be opposed to the system but still make use of it at the same time?

Also, just as a general statement, I do not usually speculate in the market. I mostly buy index funds. Most of my money is tied up in real estate investments. I just think that it is so obvious that the retail industry is going to feel some pain this xmas that I can't pass up the opportunity.
 
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Chris
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sfox wrote:
desertfox2004 wrote:
For a lot of the United States the last recession never ended, especially from the standpoint of employment. I know my region of western Pennsylvania has remained economically depressed. I'm not sure anyone here will notice if another 'official' recession comes along.


Based on this graph, I'd say at least 300,000 people would notice. Looks like total employment in Pennsylvania is +100,000 vs. what it was in 2009, so the economy is clearly doing better than it was prior to the recession.



So the number of jobs didn't hit the previous level until mid '15 and that's supposed to be a good thing? 6-7 years of not having a job will piss people off.
 
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J.D. Hall
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sfox wrote:
That said, pushing paper around can put money in my pockets, so why shouldn't I? I didn't create the system, I just benefit from it. Why can't I be opposed to the system but still make use of it at the same time?


Well, it is more legal than selling heroin to grade school kids, so go you. Have a cookie.
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Shawn Fox
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remorseless1 wrote:
sfox wrote:
That said, pushing paper around can put money in my pockets, so why shouldn't I? I didn't create the system, I just benefit from it. Why can't I be opposed to the system but still make use of it at the same time?


Well, it is more legal than selling heroin to grade school kids, so go you. Have a cookie.

Seriously? That is the dumbest thing you've posted on RSP, at least that I've read anyway. I really don't understand the resentment that you are expressing at all. It seems incredibly misplaced to me. Why do you care anyway? Are you opposed to people who play high stakes poker as well? How about those who make money betting on sports? It is all just a game. I'm not buying companies and selling off their parts to the highest bidders, I'm just making educated bets.

The stock market is somewhat biased to the upside so most non stupid players tend to make money. The smartest (or luckiest) can get rich. I won't make any claims to being very good at it myself, maybe slightly above average. Enough that I usually beat the market anyway, but not by a lot.
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Burke Martin
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galad2003 wrote:
sfox wrote:
desertfox2004 wrote:
For a lot of the United States the last recession never ended, especially from the standpoint of employment. I know my region of western Pennsylvania has remained economically depressed. I'm not sure anyone here will notice if another 'official' recession comes along.


Based on this graph, I'd say at least 300,000 people would notice. Looks like total employment in Pennsylvania is +100,000 vs. what it was in 2009, so the economy is clearly doing better than it was prior to the recession.



So the number of jobs didn't hit the previous level until mid '15 and that's supposed to be a good thing? 6-7 years of not having a job will piss people off.


Then go back to school or move, that's what I did. The world doesnt need another unskilled workforce and most of the people who boo hoo about jobs are just that. This is the harsh reality of a changing world and from what I can tell thats largely why Trump was elected. Trump told people he would make america great again by bringing unskilled jobs back to the US... well I hope you enjoy making tires for $7/hr because thats what its going to be.
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Shawn Fox
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brkmrtn wrote:
galad2003 wrote:
So the number of jobs didn't hit the previous level until mid '15 and that's supposed to be a good thing? 6-7 years of not having a job will piss people off.


Then go back to school or move, that's what I did. The world doesnt need another unskilled workforce and most of the people who boo hoo about jobs are just that. This is the harsh reality of a changing world and from what I can tell thats largely why Trump was elected. Trump told people he would make america great again by bringing unskilled jobs back to the US... well I hope you enjoy making tires for $7/hr because thats what its going to be.

No, those people believe the government owes them jobs. I've no idea why they voted for a Republican over a Democrat if they believe that, but whatever. Stupid is as stupid does.
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Steven McKinney
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Almost every job can be outsourced. "Skilled" jobs are no exception, why do you think they make smart phones in China? People in India can program just as well as any in America, and it takes an entire 5 minutes to transfer any blueprints or technical data to Russia.

In the end the only protected job in American is a government job.
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J.D. Hall
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sfox wrote:
remorseless1 wrote:
sfox wrote:
That said, pushing paper around can put money in my pockets, so why shouldn't I? I didn't create the system, I just benefit from it. Why can't I be opposed to the system but still make use of it at the same time?


Well, it is more legal than selling heroin to grade school kids, so go you. Have a cookie.

Seriously? That is the dumbest thing you've posted on RSP, at least that I've read anyway. I really don't understand the resentment that you are expressing at all. It seems incredibly misplaced to me. Why do you care anyway? Are you opposed to people who play high stakes poker as well? How about those who make money betting on sports? It is all just a game. I'm not buying companies and selling off their parts to the highest bidders, I'm just making educated bets.

The stock market is somewhat biased to the upside so most non stupid players tend to make money. The smartest (or luckiest) can get rich. I won't make any claims to being very good at it myself, maybe slightly above average. Enough that I usually beat the market anyway, but not by a lot.


Yeah, that was harsh. Mea culpa. But my resentment is that people who can nail a three-point shot from 40 feet or who look really good in a movie make so much money, while the guys in the ambulance who keep someone alive until they get to an emergency room make so little. Capitalism in macro terms is effective in creating a dynamic, upward-moving economy. In micro terms, however, there are grotesque distortions that are, in my opinion, harmful.

Incidentally, I think people who play at casinos or bet sports are simply morons waiting to be fleeced. They think they're gambling. The casino owners or bookies aren't gambling -- they're playing a sure thing. In that light, I have far more respect for stock traders or speculators.
 
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anemaat wrote:
Dark ages? .... on your continent! laugh

Finally stimili to unite Europe and build a proper defense and common foreign policy.


And when Europeans "build a proper defense", are they going to get the Americans to pay for it?
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Shawn Fox
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remorseless1 wrote:
Incidentally, I think people who play at casinos or bet sports are simply morons waiting to be fleeced. They think they're gambling. The casino owners or bookies aren't gambling -- they're playing a sure thing. In that light, I have far more respect for stock traders or speculators.

The three wealthiest people I know got rich by the three methods we are talking about right now. One did it by playing poker, coming in 2nd place on the world series of poker (as well as winning or doing well at many other events), another did it by making high stakes bets on sports, and the 3rd did it by working for a hedge fund.

There is a lot of skill in poker. Understanding the odds is easy, being able to read people, and to get people to misread you, is the key to being really good. Most people aren't good enough to make a living at it, but there are some who feel like they are reading your fucking mind.

In sports betting, knowledge is key. The bookies set the line to balance the bets so that they can get the same amount of money on both sides of the line and thus make money off the VIG. That doesn't mean the line is always correct as far as what the real odds are. Someone who does a lot of research can figure out when the line is wrong and profit from it. A professional gambler can win around 55% of their bets. That may not sound like much, but if you are making a million dollars in bets every week and winning 55% of the time, you can make a lot of money really fast, even after the house takes their cut.

And the stock market... well you can get lucky or you can work for a hedge fund that manages a few billion dollars. You don't even have to be that great at investing since you collect 2% of the total that is invested with your fund and another 20% (or more) of the gains you make. The real key is being able to convince the people have already have a lot of money that they should allocate part of their portfolio to your fund. It is more about salesmanship than anything else.
 
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Steve Cates
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sfox wrote:
deadkenny wrote:
anemaat wrote:
Well stock exchanges are up and so our pension funds.

Maybe I retire early, thanks to mr. Trump.


Careful now, you're contradicting the narrative. Nothing good is supposed to happen now that Trump has plunged the world into a "dark age".

Anyone that uses the short term direction of the stock market to predict the future direction of the stock market is going to fare very poorly. I've put my money where my mouth is, although I'm still close to 100% long with an addition 20% short position in XRT. I'll probably take profits in some of my long positions as well, but I don't expect to end up with more than 20% cash.

I just think a lot of caution right now is a really good idea. If the market continues to go up, I'll probably still match the market as my long positions should do quite a bit better than XRT. If the market goes down, I expect to beat the market handily (although still probably be somewhat negative).
Just curious, what's your stop at on XRT?
 
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Shawn Fox
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ironcates wrote:
sfox wrote:
deadkenny wrote:
anemaat wrote:
Well stock exchanges are up and so our pension funds.

Maybe I retire early, thanks to mr. Trump.


Careful now, you're contradicting the narrative. Nothing good is supposed to happen now that Trump has plunged the world into a "dark age".

Anyone that uses the short term direction of the stock market to predict the future direction of the stock market is going to fare very poorly. I've put my money where my mouth is, although I'm still close to 100% long with an addition 20% short position in XRT. I'll probably take profits in some of my long positions as well, but I don't expect to end up with more than 20% cash.

I just think a lot of caution right now is a really good idea. If the market continues to go up, I'll probably still match the market as my long positions should do quite a bit better than XRT. If the market goes down, I expect to beat the market handily (although still probably be somewhat negative).
Just curious, what's your stop at on XRT?

If things don't go the way I expect when we get results from black friday sales, I'll close the position.
 
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Shawn Fox
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-restaurant-sales-idUSK...

Several restaurants reported a big drop in sales in the week before the election. I just don't see how that uncertainty could have ended with Trump being elected. If anything it ought to be worse. Just two weeks later we have Black Friday and I don't see how that most liberals will be comfortable enough with the situation to go out and splurge on holiday gifts. A small pull back in sales over the holidays would be a huge deal for XRT as the current predictions are that we'll see retails sales up by 3 to 4% over this holiday season.

The credit card companies will have pretty accurate retail sales data available on monday (for subscribers that pay for such information) so wall street will be reacting to the early results early next week. Depending on what XRT does I'll either be closing my short position early next week or being happy holding it until January.

Looks like there is not a substantial amount of bad weather to impact shoppers, so the retailers won't have that as an excuse if sales don't go like they hope this weekend.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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There is a really nice opportunity setting up in ASA. I made some money out of earlier in the summer and it is fast.

While the daily averages are setting up for a death cross, the weekly averages are setting up for a golden cross. I think it's all part of a year scale bottoming for gold.

I thought for a while that whoever is the next president was going to have to eat a recession. And even that artificial means might have been keeping the plane from crashing until after the election.
 
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