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Subject: Was Trump primarily elected by angry white guys? rss

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Maybe! I dunno if they were angry. But they were white guys!

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37922587







It's weird how the RSP conservative narrative has become "He got lots more minorities to vote for him than Obama!"

Yes, that's somewhat true --



Man, that 6% to 8% shift in black voters (13% of Americans) -- yeah, that 0.26% shift in voters has SOME meaning, but pretending like that's the whole story is really silly.

Also, the Republican narrative is that the voting rights of minorities must be protected -- as long as those minority voters are rural white people whose votes get to count extra. Because otherwise we'd go with what the majority wanted, and that would be bad!

Because honestly, the people who live out in the country know better how those stupid city-slickers ought to be living.

(I'm semi-fine w/ the electoral college, but the arguments about it are ridiculous. States should have the rights to govern themselves based on differing cultures, it's fine.)
 
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Your two sets of stats show really different #s for the hispanic and asian vote for 2016.
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rylfrazier wrote:
Your two sets of stats show really different #s for the hispanic and asian vote for 2016.


2016 is the bottom line in the bottom graph, not the top. Looks ok from here?
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Terwox wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
Your two sets of stats show really different #s for the hispanic and asian vote for 2016.


2016 is the bottom line in the bottom graph, not the top. Looks ok from here?


Oh there we go I was just reading it wrong. I was wondering why Trump had shot up over Romney with asian and latino voters.
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Soooo, he got more black, latino, and Asian votes than Romney, and fewer white votes?
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Maybe white men (whatever their emotional state) were Trump core demographic, but he'd not have won the election had he not somehow had broader appeal. As others have remarked, he's a populist.

Is he racist/bigoted/misogynistic? Absolutely. Nevertheless he's a master of distraction. Notice that his settlement of the Trump University lawsuit isn't even a blip on the radar right now? Why? He's absurdly demanding an apology about the remarks of the cast of Hamilton.

Trump's behavior should bother everyone and I think it's an alarming sign that it doesn't. Yet that behavior is in US society accepted-- at least from the wealthy and/or famous.

Both parties have for over a decade been whipping up xenophobic paranoia. Trump's election is the natural result of that. Illegal immigration into the US is not a problem in and of itself and it never was. Neither party will admit that because they've used the bogeyman of "illegals" too often. Neither really wanted to do anything about illegal immigration because in reality as I said it's not actually a problem.

Trump took the parties at their word that illegal immigration in and of itself is terrible and dangerous etc. So he said he's going to do something about it. The people who have been fed a decade's worth at least of nativist paranoia from both parties elected someone to address what they've been assured is a threat.

Why does his election surprise anyone? I don't like it but I have said all along that I thought he would win.
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Koldfoot wrote:
Soooo, he got more black, latino, and Asian votes than Romney, and fewer white votes?


I wonder who ran against romney that might explain why minority voting might have been unusually high that year?

I can agree on the white vote issue.



older Whites have been voting 60/40 against obama for anyone.

But... there are not enough white votes for 60/40 to win an election.

Republicans are successfully pulling enough minorities to win elections.

OTH, republicans also have a lot of power in the senate from predominantly white states- several of which are suppressing minority voters and have racial tension. Over time, are those states becoming closer to 100% white?
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Seth Brown
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Trump was elected by everyone on those chart, except possibly black people. If black voters went for Clinton 10x as much as for Trump, that's pretty one-sided.

But the rest of the demographics, near 60/40 for Whites, or even near 33/66 for Asians/Hispanics, that still shows a pretty divided opinion. It may be a clear preference, but to me it's not an *overwhelming* preference. It shows that Trump's message was resonating with many people in those groups, and Clinton's message was resonating with many people in those groups. (even if the message that resonated most was "At least I'm not as bad as the other choice".)

I recently read a blogpost that pointed out that with an election this close, America is obviously the type of country that could elect Trump, but is also the type of country that could easily have elected Clinton. I'm not sure how useful it is to draw these big generalizations from groups that are breaking 45/55 or even 60/40.
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Matthew Schoell
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Do these graphs exist with absolute numbers for year to year comparisons? If black voter turnout dropped by 1 million votes for example then Trump may well have a greater percent but a smaller actual number of votes.
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whac3 wrote:
Notice that his settlement of the Trump University lawsuit isn't even a blip on the radar right now? Why? He's absurdly demanding an apology about the remarks of the cast of Hamilton.


Or maybe, the majority of people in America just don't care about either?
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Nothing there about anger.
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jageroxorz wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Notice that his settlement of the Trump University lawsuit isn't even a blip on the radar right now? Why? He's absurdly demanding an apology about the remarks of the cast of Hamilton.


Or maybe, the majority of people in America just don't care about either?

Why would you care if your president engaged in systematic fraud? shake
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No.

But they were angry.



Ferret
 
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Is it racist to say Hillary was nearly elected by angry blacks?
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Steve Cates
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Whites voted for Trump about the same as they voted for Romney. The problem was that fewer blacks and Latinos voted for Hillary than voted for Obama. Sorry, to throw off that narrative.
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ironcates wrote:
Is it racist to say Hillary was nearly elected by angry blacks?


Probably not.

Now if you said 'Spoon fed blacks who live on the Democrat plantation on a steady diet of CNN, MSNBC and NYTimes', yeah, that'd be racist.
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Koldfoot wrote:
Soooo, he got more black, latino, and Asian votes than Romney, and fewer white votes?


To put that in perspective:
White people are 63% of America.
Romney had 59%, Trump had 58%.
That's a 0.63% population shift.

The black shift was 0.26% of the population.

Hispanic is 16%, Trump went from 27% to 29%.
That's 0.8%, the biggest shift.

The only groups that voted for more than 50/50 were:
White people
Age 45+
and Men.

But saying "He got more minority votes!" is obfuscation -- he did, but that's not the entire story, and it's goofy to pick that as a primary cause.

(Or maybe it isn't. But the narrative just seems silly. "He has broader appeal than Romney!" -- so do many geologic formations...)
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Terwox wrote:
Maybe! I dunno if they were angry. But they were white guys!


I appreciate everyone's responses to the clickbait title, but this is the first line of the post.
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Trump won because a lot of Democrats didn't show up to vote at all. Haven't we been over this several times already? Trump got roughly the same set of voters as Romney, some gains here and there, a few losses here and there, but about the same. Hillary, however, was a huge drain on voter turnout for the Democrats pretty much across the board.

The narrative that the conservatives are trying to present is blatantly false. Hillary was an awful candidate, she was a conservative with liberal social values, aka a neoliberal, and that wasn't what a big chunk of the liberals/Democrats wanted. Hillary's dominance with the black voters (due to Obama and Bill's influence) won her the primaries. Bernie won or nearly tied Hillary with most other demographics.

The point of all that being, the Democrats lost because they had a terrible candidate and the Republicans will show up to vote for anyone that has the Republican hat on for the election, regardless of how awful of a person they are. All the Democrats need to do in 2020 is put up a decent liberal candidate (not neo liberal) and they'll beat whoever ends up winning the Republican primaries. The demographics still heavily favor the Democrats, even with the distortions of the electoral college.
 
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ImaSokpupet wrote:
Trump was elected by Hispanics then, since they had the biggest shift in support.


I know you're being flippant, but people are actually saying that. It's goofy. It's a 0.8% shift in the population.

Quote:
They must have internalized racism.


I'm not saying that and I don't believe it. You don't have to be racist to support Trump. (It might help, but the alt-right shit is overblown reporting on a few people.)
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What I usually find interesting is how the whole media "narrative" shifts instantly, based on small total shifts in votes.

If Trump had lost, all the media would be talking about was how Republicans will never win the Presidency again without supporting open borders because the Hispanic vote leans so far blue.

Now, I read an article today that was trying to say that liberals will never win the Presidency again...

shake
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jageroxorz wrote:
What I usually find interesting is how the whole media "narrative" shifts instantly, based on small total shifts in votes.

If Trump had lost, all the media would be talking about was how Republicans will never win the Presidency again without supporting open borders because the Hispanic vote leans so far blue.

Now, I read an article today that was trying to say that liberals will never win the Presidency again...

shake


It's pretty ridiculous overall, yeah.

The parties will shift back and forth to keep the illusion of a difference between them and we'll be somewhere near a 50/50 split.

If we're not, whichever party has less support will shift ideology to receive more support.

OR, the party with less support will remain static and disappear! That's a thing!

I don't know shit about the history of political party dissolution in America, sadly. I'm not sure it's relevant at this point, with how things work now. Perhaps so?
 
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jageroxorz wrote:
What I usually find interesting is how the whole media "narrative" shifts instantly, based on small total shifts in votes.

If Trump had lost, all the media would be talking about was how Republicans will never win the Presidency again without supporting open borders because the Hispanic vote leans so far blue.

Now, I read an article today that was trying to say that liberals will never win the Presidency again...

shake


I don't think its about open borders. Many hispanics here are fine with closing the borders as long as their friends are not going to be deported.

I'm not sure how they would stand on a national job database (be a registered citizen to work with large fines to businesses who have workers who are unregistered).

Just not sure U.S. citizens would stand for a national photo id data base with social security number but it is the way to go to solve 99% of the problem. You'd still have some cash businesses but sting operations could limit that behavior.

OTH, I never thought I'd see republicans cozying up to the russians and Putin. So anything is possible right now as long as Trump says it's a good idea.
 
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utoption2 wrote:
whac3 wrote:
jageroxorz wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Notice that his settlement of the Trump University lawsuit isn't even a blip on the radar right now? Why? He's absurdly demanding an apology about the remarks of the cast of Hamilton.


Or maybe, the majority of people in America just don't care about either?

Why would you care if your president engaged in systematic fraud? shake


You really shouldn't talk about Hillary that way. I mean keeping a private server with classified documents like that--I would have been sent to Leavenworth if I would have done that, like most analysts would have been.


What a stunning gotcha, I am thrilled, and I will now worship at the altar of Trump, He who hath wrought no fraud, Amen, as determined in his out-of-court settlement.
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