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Subject: Calexit, no. Pacexit, makes some sense. rss

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Walt
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While California could be its own country, it doesn't make much sense for the US to let it go. It's a money maker for the country, has important ports, and its votes are already devalued.

But, consider WA, OR, CA, NV, and HI. Nevada is pretty well glued to California economically, so whither CA goes, NV needs to go. Those five states are 10 Senators and 84 House members, mostly Democrat. Pacexit could keep the US Republican for decades. So, if the Pacexit states really want it, it makes political sense for everyone but New England to vote for a Constitutional Amendment making it happen.

It might make sense to add AZ, NM, and CO. That would solve Colorado River water problems; Spanish Alta California included them and UT. (Maybe UT could get their wish to become Deseret.) That would add 6 Senators, I think 4-2 as of the next Congress, but AZ might object, despite economic ties to CA.
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Mike Stiles
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I grant it's fun to dream ><

Imagine what we could do without all those cash-negative debtor states dragging us down!
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Steve Cates
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I'm all for it. I wish we could individually choose our own sovereign nation. Maybe someday with technology we can. Cessation without war is the way to go, no ill will, just go in peace brothers and sisters. We'd love to trade with you in the future. I really think a government should be no bigger than what can be seen from the top of a hill.
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If Calexit will be called for, it is most likely to put pressure on the new president. But if it happens ... that is serious trouble.

A Pacexit depends on how well connected the states involved are. But to me it looks doubtful.
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Walt
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Calexit has been called for by some, but I doubt it's a majority even in the Bay Area; though California taxes would go down. The other States just don't have a reason to permit Calexit, and the other states have to permit it overwhelmingly.

Pacexit would put the Republican party would be in solidly in power for some time. The Pacific States end up a little richer, even if we have to have a military proportional to the remaining US.

Every major US military project has gone ridiculously over budget; I think California is too attached to "fixing things" to let that happen, and negotiating among five States is a lot more manageable than among 50--plus almost all the defense contractors have moved their headquarters near Washington DC so they can lobby better: that's far away from the Pacific.

A lot of the turmoil in the US is from the "flyover States", those between the Pacific States and the other coastal states, just not being very agile economically. Some try to attract jobs from other states, which doesn't help the US as a whole or create any long-term jobs.

Few flyover States are really creating new kinds of jobs, like Tesla's giant battery factory or Google or Apple or Facebook or Uber.... The problem with being conservative in business in the 21st century is that someone will come and disrupt your business model, as we've seen again and again.

So, what they want is to protect the jobs they have, and (somehow) to bring back jobs that have gone to Mexico or China. One way to try is by putting up trade barriers.

California, certainly, and I think the other Pacific States would be better off with barriers continuing to be down.

I don't think Pacexit will happen, but it's a lot more politically realistic than Calexit.
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Mike Stiles
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anemaat wrote:
If Calexit will be called for, it is most likely to put pressure on the new president. But if it happens ... that is serious trouble.

A Pacexit depends on how well connected the states involved are. But to me it looks doubtful.


As per Cascadia, This is something that the west coast talks about all the time, with verious levels of (not too high) seriousness.

I think WA, OR, and CA are in the end actually too nationalist to try to pull something like that, and that's leaving aside the very foggy legal elements. We bitch some, but we like being "Americans".

~~~

That said, the US would be pretty bad spot if they lost the West Coast. ~1/6 of the GDP and the loss of all their pacific ports (thus crippling trade with Korea, Japan, and the PRC) would cripple the economy.
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Walt
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windsagio wrote:
As per Cascadia, This is something that the west coast talks about all the time, with verious levels of (not too high) seriousness.

I think WA, OR, and CA are in the end actually too nationalist to try to pull something like that, and that's leaving aside the very foggy legal elements. We bitch some, but we like being "Americans".

I think it depends on how much Trump "backslides". If it looks like we're going back to Jim Crow or, heaven forbid, Alt-Right's wet dream of Nazi America, then all bets are off.

Of course, Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook is in denial now. By 2018, he could be in the anger phase, along with a lot of Pacific Coast billionaires. It's the Republican party, I think, that tries to do away with net neutrality and did away with the fairness doctrine. What if Facebook and Twitter don't tilt Democratic, but outright endorse throwing the Republican Party out of every office possible? "Folks, let us show you what real media bias is."

As far as fogginess, I think a Constitutional Amendment is needed: that's clearly legal since an Amendment can do anything. Whether a treaty with Canada could cede the Pacific to Canada--treaties are equal to the Constitution in power, so that's a possible path. We have several times changed the border of the US by treaty. And, Canada has invited.

windsagio wrote:
That said, the US would be pretty bad spot if they lost the West Coast. ~1/6 of the GDP and the loss of all their pacific ports (thus crippling trade with Korea, Japan, and the PRC) would cripple the economy.

Not such a big deal, especially considering the future administration has talked about restricting foreign trade. In any case, it's just a matter of doing the diplomatic work the Confederacy refused to do. The US military trains in other countries' bases all the time.

It might be as simple as a base sharing agreement, and a free trade agreement. Very little might really change. We now have lots of precedents of nations dividing: the USSR shed a lot more area when it changed to Russia; the Czechs and Slovaks split pretty peaceably.

(It's not clear to me how WV split from Virginia without a Constitutional Amendment, though.)

OTOH, I wonder if we could buy Baja California from Mexico? After all, it happened to the huge areas of pre-State Louisiana and Alaska.
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ironcates wrote:
I'm all for it. I wish we could individually choose our own sovereign nation. Maybe someday with technology we can. Cessation without war is the way to go, no ill will, just go in peace brothers and sisters. We'd love to trade with you in the future. I really think a government should be no bigger than what can be seen from the top of a hill.

please investigate a hill based government
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Tall_Walt wrote:
Calexit has been called for by some, but I doubt it's a majority even in the Bay Area; though California taxes would go down. The other States just don't have a reason to permit Calexit, and the other states have to permit it overwhelmingly.

In these modern times there are referenda. Look at the Scots. Give them extra rights and they stay in Britain.

Tall_Walt wrote:
Pacexit would put the Republican party would be in solidly in power for some time. The Pacific States end up a little richer, even if we have to have a military proportional to the remaining US.

If you want to secceede, it is better not to feel empathy with those who left behind. That is their concern.

Tall_Walt wrote:
Every major US military project has gone ridiculously over budget; I think California is too attached to "fixing things" to let that happen, and negotiating among five States is a lot more manageable than among 50--plus almost all the defense contractors have moved their headquarters near Washington DC so they can lobby better: that's far away from the Pacific.

So the case of the Joint Strike Fighter / F-35 is not unique. Way too expensive.

Tall_Walt wrote:
A lot of the turmoil in the US is from the "flyover States", those between the Pacific States and the other coastal states, just not being very agile economically. Some try to attract jobs from other states, which doesn't help the US as a whole or create any long-term jobs.

Some coordination and positive discrimination is needed. I am curious to learn if Trump is gonna keep his promise about reshoring industry. And how successful it will be. It may be a blueprint.

Tall_Walt wrote:
Few flyover States are really creating new kinds of jobs, like Tesla's giant battery factory or Google or Apple or Facebook or Uber.... The problem with being conservative in business in the 21st century is that someone will come and disrupt your business model, as we've seen again and again.

Yeah, that is the economic model we are stuck up with.

Tall_Walt wrote:
So, what they want is to protect the jobs they have, and (somehow) to bring back jobs that have gone to Mexico or China. One way to try is by putting up trade barriers.

For the pacific coastal states less trade barriers are beneficial. Trade barriers comes with counter trade barriers.

Tall_Walt wrote:
California, certainly, and I think the other Pacific States would be better off with barriers continuing to be down.

Yes

Tall_Walt wrote:
I don't think Pacexit will happen, but it's a lot more politically realistic than Calexit.

I think the other way round. California is a political unity already. But I believe we will never see it.
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ironcates wrote:
I really think a government should be no bigger than what can be seen from the top of a hill.


Although I can see the appeal, I think things are a bit too complicated today to subdivide the world into Greek city-state sized bodies. And would end up yielding far, far too much power to large corporations.
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Walt
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anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
Calexit has been called for by some, but I doubt it's a majority even in the Bay Area; though California taxes would go down. The other States just don't have a reason to permit Calexit, and the other states have to permit it overwhelmingly.

In these modern times there are referenda. Look at the Scots. Give them extra rights and they stay in Britain.

For good or ill, the US has a fixed, written Constitution that is very hard to change. By contrast, Britain has an unwritten constitution (common law, precedent) and Parliament can do almost anything.

California has initiatives and referenda, but they can't change the US Constitution.

anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
Pacexit would put the Republican party would be in solidly in power for some time. The Pacific States end up a little richer, even if we have to have a military proportional to the remaining US.

If you want to secceede, it is better not to feel empathy with those who left behind. That is their concern.

It's not empathy as much as finding a political path to legal secession. We need to give the other states something they want--control over the US.

anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
Every major US military project has gone ridiculously over budget; I think California is too attached to "fixing things" to let that happen, and negotiating among five States is a lot more manageable than among 50--plus almost all the defense contractors have moved their headquarters near Washington DC so they can lobby better: that's far away from the Pacific.

So the case of the Joint Strike Fighter / F-35 is not unique. Way too expensive.

Heavens, no. The Ford-class aircraft carrier is at least double the cost of the Nimitz, and only offers small evolutionary changes. We didn't build many F-22 fighters because they were extremely expensive, though they're looking cheap compared to the F-35--which is hard to price because the Pentagon called a "do over" and just made a lot of the development costs disappear. And we have a new $4 billion destroyer, USS Zumwalt, sitting in Panama, broken down.

Someone was commenting that budgeting $3 billion for infrastructure improvements was ridiculous, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to how much we waste on badly run military projects.

They, by the way, follow the same political logic of giving something to everyone. Instead of being in one efficient factory, the defense contractors have spread the work across the country so no Congressman can oppose a project without it costing jobs in his state.

anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
A lot of the turmoil in the US is from the "flyover States", those between the Pacific States and the other coastal states, just not being very agile economically. Some try to attract jobs from other states, which doesn't help the US as a whole or create any long-term jobs.

Some coordination and positive discrimination is needed. I am curious to learn if Trump is gonna keep his promise about reshoring industry. And how successful it will be. It may be a blueprint.

I have no idea. He's said so many different things, who knows? If he does, it will make our production less efficient than foreign production, and the jobs will die anyway, unless the people are replaced with robots.

anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
Few flyover States are really creating new kinds of jobs, like Tesla's giant battery factory or Google or Apple or Facebook or Uber.... The problem with being conservative in business in the 21st century is that someone will come and disrupt your business model, as we've seen again and again.

Yeah, that is the economic model we are stuck up with.

Can't turn back time.

anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
So, what they want is to protect the jobs they have, and (somehow) to bring back jobs that have gone to Mexico or China. One way to try is by putting up trade barriers.

For the pacific coastal states less trade barriers are beneficial. Trade barriers comes with counter trade barriers.

Tall_Walt wrote:
California, certainly, and I think the other Pacific States would be better off with barriers continuing to be down.

Yes

Yes.

anemaat wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
I don't think Pacexit will happen, but it's a lot more politically realistic than Calexit.

I think the other way round. California is a political unity already. But I believe we will never see it.

I don't think it'll happen either, but Pacexit wouldn't be that much of a problem. California is over twice the size of all the other Pacific States even if you throw in Nevada. What we'd have to do is either redraw the state boundaries, at least split up California; or use a different system than the US uses, such as all Senators being at large. We'd have to have a "Pacifica" Constitution that is as difficult to change as the US Constitution, or close.
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I'm sorry, this is not the 1860s. If a segment of the population wants to secede, what are you going to do about it. If Quebec moves to secede, Canada will not militarily force them to stay. Likewise, no modern US administration will use military force on Americans, nor will American troops go into full war mode on fellow Americans.

The above paragraph is an oversimplification. Firstly, there are indeed many legitimate questions regarding debt and current national assets. So, for example, there might be a situation where the parties fail to agree regarding certain infrastructure, which may lead to the federal deployment of troops to those installations. And, as we know all too well, matters can escalate beyond either side's control and intentions.

Moreover, there are those radical segments of the population who actually want to provoke a fight for whatever convoluted internal logic their ideology provides for.

I've been thinking of the eventual dissolution of the United States for many years. In my opinion it is too early for it now. I believe that if and when it does occur it will not be on political grounds rather on racial and national sentiments. When the Mexican demographics in the South-West US reaches some critical mass, then I think that area will just vote its way out of the United States into a greater California.

I also think that simultaneously this will stimulate a similar movement on the East coast. Perhaps the West and East coasts will combine into another country. It's unnerving to the eye but physically disjointed countries are not unheard of, and modern technology in air transport and digital communications has a facilitating effect in this case.
.
 
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To something earlier; no Canada (although we'd take BC into a new nation if they wanted it).

That'd be like leaving your abusive boyfriend to marry a slug of lead.
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windsagio wrote:
I grant it's fun to dream ><

Imagine what we could do without all those cash-negative debtor states dragging us down!


U do realize Californias 400 Billion in state debt, ranks it in the top 3 in the country?

Yes lets imagine what the other 49 could do without Californias problems. Like maybe become profitable again.

Continuing its 2 decade long tradition of being the worst state to live in... California is highest state government debt, highest cost of living in the us, crime/unemployment/taxes/welfare & public assistance rates all through the roof, lowest new business creation, highest small business rate failure, lowest public school ratings, worst traffic, highest population of Illegal aliens... and thats just the beginning...
Energy Crisis, Drought Crisis, Fires, Earthquakes...

http://www.infowars.com/55-reasons-why-california-is-the-wor...



California leaving the union is most conservatives wet dream...
Please leave so the rest of the country can right itself without the liberal mind disease.
 
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sao123 wrote:
windsagio wrote:
I grant it's fun to dream ><

Imagine what we could do without all those cash-negative debtor states dragging us down!


U do realize Californias 400 Billion in state debt, ranks it in the top 3 in the country?

Yes lets imagine what the other 49 could do without Californias problems. Like maybe become profitable again.

Continuing its 2 decade long tradition of being the worst state to live in... California is highest state government debt, highest cost of living in the us, crime/unemployment/taxes/welfare & public assistance rates all through the roof, lowest new business creation, highest small business rate failure, lowest public school ratings, worst traffic, highest population of Illegal aliens... and thats just the beginning...
Energy Crisis, Drought Crisis, Fires, Earthquakes...

http://www.infowars.com/55-reasons-why-california-is-the-wor...



California leaving the union is most conservatives wet dream...
Please leave so the rest of the country can right itself without the liberal mind disease.


Rad, INFOWARS!

More to the point,

Federal taxes paid out of CA: $292,563,574,000
CA budget deficit surpluse (wait, what?) 2.8B this year.

Between those 2 tidbits I think they'd be ok.

~~

PS: You're one of those "I don't understand sovereign debt at all!" People, aren't you?
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windsagio wrote:
sao123 wrote:
windsagio wrote:
I grant it's fun to dream ><

Imagine what we could do without all those cash-negative debtor states dragging us down!


U do realize Californias 400 Billion in state debt, ranks it in the top 3 in the country?

Yes lets imagine what the other 49 could do without Californias problems. Like maybe become profitable again.

Continuing its 2 decade long tradition of being the worst state to live in... California is highest state government debt, highest cost of living in the us, crime/unemployment/taxes/welfare & public assistance rates all through the roof, lowest new business creation, highest small business rate failure, lowest public school ratings, worst traffic, highest population of Illegal aliens... and thats just the beginning...
Energy Crisis, Drought Crisis, Fires, Earthquakes...

http://www.infowars.com/55-reasons-why-california-is-the-wor...



California leaving the union is most conservatives wet dream...
Please leave so the rest of the country can right itself without the liberal mind disease.


Rad, INFOWARS!

More to the point,

Federal taxes paid out of CA: $292,563,574,000
CA budget deficit surpluse (wait, what?) 2.8B this year.

Between those 2 tidbits I think they'd be ok.

~~

PS: You're one of those "I don't understand sovereign debt at all!" People, aren't you?



interestingly enough you'll be paying the other 49, 2.7B for Drinking Water and Electricity... which all of the NIMBY's of California have proudly eliminated from your state.
 
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Wait, they're going to Block off the Colorado entirely?
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windsagio wrote:
Wait, they're going to Block off the Colorado entirely?


Well it doesn't get to the sea now right?

If california voted to withdraw, I think you'd see a EU-Brexit like reaction. "Oh you want to leave us eh?!?!? Well screw you, even tho you are as big of a partner as china, we'll give them better trade terms and do everything we can to ruin you because we hate you for leaving us!"

California could fix a lot of it's water needs by dropping the almond crop. Agriculture makes up a TINY part of california's GSP (under 2%) but a huge portion of it's water consumption.

And independent of the feds, it could probably get some serious water desalination going on.

The economy of California is the largest in the United States. As of 2015, California's gross state product (GSP) is about $2.496 trillion.

Meanwhile, the United States' GDP was estimated to be $17.914 trillion as of Q2 2015.


California citizens would be much better off without the U.S. Like many U.S. allies, their military expenses would drop by over 50%. With roughly 12% of the citizens, they have roughly 18% of the U.S. entire GDP.
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If the pacific coast secedes what about Idaho dpoing the same as the Libertarian Utopia of Idaho?

Being protected on both sides by freindly countries would mean no money spent on the military, though everyone would be armed obviously.

Would anyone notice Idaho seceding?
 
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I'd never want Canada to join USA as it is - but I'd vote for BC to join Cali/Oregon/Washington/Nevada in an instant.

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bramadan wrote:
I'd never want Canada to join USA as it is - but I'd vote for BC to join Cali/Oregon/Washington/Nevada in an instant.



See? West coast 4 life! As a born Seattleite, I like to maintain a healthy rivalry with Vancouver, but we're way more alike to each other than we're ever to anyone east of us, in either country.

~~~

AttackFactorZero wrote:
If the pacific coast secedes what about Idaho dpoing the same as the Libertarian Utopia of Idaho?

Being protected on both sides by freindly countries would mean no money spent on the military, though everyone would be armed obviously.

Would anyone notice Idaho seceding?


I think Idaho would notice, they wouldn't have any economy for infrastructure or services ><
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maxo-texas wrote:
windsagio wrote:
Wait, they're going to Block off the Colorado entirely?

Well it doesn't get to the sea now right?

It didn't for a long time, except in exceptionally wet years, but for the last few years Hoover Dam has been simulating a Spring snow-melt and then passing enough water down to Mexico (who consumes a lot of Colorado water, too).

maxo-texas wrote:
If california voted to withdraw, I think you'd see a EU-Brexit like reaction. "Oh you want to leave us eh?!?!? Well screw you, even tho you are as big of a partner as china, we'll give them better trade terms and do everything we can to ruin you because we hate you for leaving us!"

That's part of the reason I think Pacexit is more viable: you're giving something most Americans think they want, and it needs to happen with overwhelming US consent, so.... Personally, I think such a separation for a while could be a very good thing. There's no way the F-35 fiasco could have happened in a sovereign California or a Pacifica with a California-style initiative/referendum process: the F-35 would have been killed by the voters. I think we'd innovate with a freer hand, and the US would adopt some of the reforms (with much gnashing of teeth, no doubt).

The Pacific States joining Canada...well, that would be more like Canada joining "Pacifica" (as I'm calling it) when you look at population and economics. I'd be concerned that our unfamiliarity with a parliamentary republic would destabilize the country.

maxo-texas wrote:
California could fix a lot of it's water needs by dropping the almond crop. Agriculture makes up a TINY part of california's GSP (under 2%) but a huge portion of it's water consumption.

Not going to happen, but that isn't Colorado water, BTW: it all comes from the western Sierra Nevada watershed or northern California. Raw almonds are quite dry; I assume if they use a lot of water, it's the tree that's pushing out water--it isn't going into the almonds. California produces something like 80% of the almonds in the world. They also make the most money of any of our crops, even wine. In addition to almonds, CA has 99% of US production of a dozen other crops, and dominates about 70 more. See here (PDF).

maxo-texas wrote:
And independent of the feds, it could probably get some serious water desalination going on.

We do have some serious desalination going on, but desal is expensive and difficult.

I joke only somewhat when I say we've run all our sewers in the wrong direction. If we'd dumped into the desert instead of the ocean, the water would sink in and go back into the water table, while the wastes would dry out and be usable as fertilizer, at least for non-food crops.

maxo-texas wrote:

It wasn't 100% clear: the pie chart is California's economy, not the US's.
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Drew1365 wrote:
Tall_Walt wrote:
I think it depends on how much Trump "backslides". If it looks like we're going back to Jim Crow or, heaven forbid, Alt-Right's wet dream of Nazi America, then all bets are off.

You do realize that the likelihood of these things happening is, .00000000000000001%? Or possibly lower?

I realize Trump is an adept...salesman. I can't predict whether he'll do the above, or cut a deal with Democrats as insurance against, "Well, if we impeach Trump, we get Pence and a VP of our choice!" I assume at least partially now, he's taking such a conformist line to convince the Electoral College not to go "faithless". I don't think we'll really know his values until he's inaugurated.

Drew1365 wrote:
Quote:
What if Facebook and Twitter don't tilt Democratic, but outright endorse throwing the Republican Party out of every office possible? "Folks, let us show you what real media bias is."

Are you under the impression that we didn't see it like a bright blinding light over the last decade+?

Trump did much of his advertising in social media. Suppose Facebook and Twitter just refuse the ads? After all, the Fairness Doctrine was killed by Reagan, so they don't have to be fair at all. Zuckerberg (of Facebook) is pretty upset at the idea Facebook contributed to Trump's success; by 2018 he could be angry. And Twitter is based in SF. And Reddit. And Pinterest.

Well, there's always Weibo....
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J.D. Hall
United States
Oklahoma
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(sigh) Here we go again.

Remember the Republic of Texas bullshit in 2012?

So Cali wants to leave the US? Fine. Who's going to pay the Social Security and Medicare costs for the senior citizens in that new country? All those military bases, service personnel, etc. -- the US learned its lesson in 1861. Those will be GONE and gone quickly. Funding for Medicaid, highway repairs, research grants, student loans -- GONE. Airport and sea port support -- GONE.

So you'd have a bunch of National Guard troops (with few weapons) and no Naval/Air Force reserve ships and planes. A huge budget deficit (from filling in for Social Security, etc.) What's next?

For good or ill, the 50 states in the Union are tied together. There really isn't one part anymore that can be as successful independently as it is as part of the Union. The Federal Government is far more involved in the States' business than it was 165 years ago.

Eventually, the US will dissolve -- if it doesn't, it would go against the cycle of history. And when it breaks up, it will be as bitter as the Civil War. This crap about "well, go in peace brothers" is inane.
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Junior McSpiffy
United States
Riverton
Utah
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So many homes that have so many balls being taken back to them.

So, so many.
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