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Mythic Battles: Pantheon» Forums » General

Subject: KS target rss

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Daniel Guinoza
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Hello again.

A couple of days ago, Kicktraq showed above 1.9M trend with circe/wolves and is now back to sub 1.9M. And kicktraq now shows more reasonable trends, even if it may lack a last day surge calculation.

We need some hype. Just having Sysiphus isn't cutting it. Mechanically interesting, but has no mass appeal. The comments are also decreasing, we need a bit more than a medusa feature.

It is critical that these days leading to the end we make around 60k per day to have a hope of reaching 2M (and the last day needs +40k above average).

With a big and a small box yet to be unveiled, and Aphrodite at 2M, I have no concerns about the last day surge, but what worries me are these days leading up to them.

Any news on when are we getting the final 2 boxes spoiled? The maps may appeal to some who want a bit more of different content, but we know cool minis are the big drives.
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Ben Clapperton
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Kicktraq's predictor is about as useful as a stopped clock. If there's ever a point during the campaign in which it gets the total right, it's entirely coincidental. All it does is divide the amount by the number of days so far and project that average over the remaining days. So if a day has a jump in pledges, say because an add-on is released, the predicted total jumps, then it goes back down again as that bump wears off.

The Titan add-on caused a spike in pledges bigger than any add-on barring the all-in bundles. That in turn sent the Kicktraq predicted total up. As the spike wears off, so does the predicted total come down. It's nothing to do with Sisyphus. The exact same impact is found in the comments. A spike in pledges caused by an add-on causes a spike in comments.
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Daniel Guinoza
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redben wrote:
Kicktraq's predictor is about as useful as a stopped clock. If there's ever a point during the campaign in which it gets the total right, it's entirely coincidental. All it does is divide the amount by the number of days so far and project that average over the remaining days. So if a day has a jump in pledges, say because an add-on is released, the predicted total jumps, then it goes back down again as that bump wears off.

The Titan add-on caused a spike in pledges bigger than any add-on barring the all-in bundles. That in turn sent the Kicktraq predicted total up. As the spike wears off, so does the predicted total come down. It's nothing to do with Sisyphus. The exact same impact is found in the comments. A spike in pledges caused by an add-on causes a spike in comments.


I am aware of the spikes driving predictions around. And I also know why after the Titans the numbers show clearly a dreaded effect (KDM). The site just received a revamp and it is useful, the projection cone won't be far away from the goal. It showed 1.8M-2.5M some days ago, and it is still a good prediction. Right now it shows 1.9M-2.2M, and if raw data says your unbiased predictions are going down, something must be going on, and after the Titans it was KDM, right now it is the lack of an interesting stretch goal and features of minis we already know.

Sysiphus does not as much, and maps won't change that much either. I am certain the last day surge will be significant, but if these days slow down, say to 1.85 to the last day, I don't know if the surge will be enough.
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Emivaldo Sousa
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I also think it would be good to reveal one of those add ons soon to keep people talking.

I liked sysy, but the medusa update did nothing for me and I could use other interesting stuff to keep pushing the game around social media.
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Daniel Guinoza
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zinho73 wrote:
I also think it would be good to reveal one of those add ons soon to keep people talking.

I liked sysy, but the medusa update did nothing for me and I could use other interesting stuff to keep pushing the game around social media.


Yeah a social media stretch goal like shares, likes on FB, 10k backers or stuff like that would be a good addition and would help fuel a bit.
 
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Ben Clapperton
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The Titan add-on was revealed the day after Monster went to KS. So given that campaign's first day, the major impact would already have been felt. The decrease is simply because everyone who is going to pledge for the Titan add-on before the end of the campaign did so when it went live. It spiked that day's total and into the next, causing a spike in the predicted total, then when the spike ended so did the predicted total fall.

And just to show the maths:

Kicktraq currently has the daily average as $61,380, the current total as $1,718,628, the predicted total as $1,902,767, and there are three days to go. If you multiple $61,380 by three and it add to the current figure you get $1,902,768. Kicktraq is literally just projecting the current daily average over the rest of the campaign to come up with its figure. That's it. It is a useless figure.
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ace hawkster
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I reckon the big black box is conan base game
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Daniel Guinoza
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redben wrote:
The Titan add-on was revealed the day after Monster went to KS. So given that campaign's first day, the major impact would already have been felt. The decrease is simply because everyone who is going to pledge for the Titan add-on before the end of the campaign did so when it went live. It spiked that day's total and into the next, causing a spike in the predicted total, then when the spike ended so did the predicted total fall.

And just to show the maths:

Kicktraq currently has the daily average as $61,380, the current total as $1,718,628, the predicted total as $1,902,767, and there are three days to go. If you multiple $61,380 by three and it add to the current figure you get $1,902,768. Kicktraq is literally just projecting the current daily average over the rest of the campaign to come up with its figure. That's it. It is a useless figure.


Check the [experimental] projection cone, that's the one i referred. Also check the comments data, and the daily data. The daily data in particular shows the KDM effect, as well as the [exp] trend. Most successful kickstarters have a [exp] trend curve (green) that starts high, goes down, and once a bottom is reached, they grow until the end. MBP has had TWO bottoms, caused by KDM. KDM has easily taken 250k+ from MBP.

Now that the KDM fever is 'over' (successive dates have had a laughable fraction compared to day 1), we see MBP stats getting back to normal, except we have only Sysiphus and a Medusa feature that are useless. See how all the data (NOT the average) moves along these lines.

I'm just saying it is not wise to have a boring day with just 3 left, and a behemoth as competition, if we expect to break the significant landmark of 2M.

acehawkster1973 wrote:
I reckon the big black box is conan base game


That would be a decent value. And shipping costs will continue to skyrocket. But what would the last small be? I don't think we will have that many Conan-related expansions.
 
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Itai Perez
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redben wrote:
The Titan add-on was revealed the day after Monster went to KS. So given that campaign's first day, the major impact would already have been felt. The decrease is simply because everyone who is going to pledge for the Titan add-on before the end of the campaign did so when it went live. It spiked that day's total and into the next, causing a spike in the predicted total, then when the spike ended so did the predicted total fall.

And just to show the maths:

Kicktraq currently has the daily average as $61,380, the current total as $1,718,628, the predicted total as $1,902,767, and there are three days to go. If you multiple $61,380 by three and it add to the current figure you get $1,902,768. Kicktraq is literally just projecting the current daily average over the rest of the campaign to come up with its figure. That's it. It is a useless figure.


That's kicktraq trend, which is in fact calculated in just that way. kicktrack prediction, with a minimum and maximum is supposed to be more cleverly calculated, though I am not sure just how much.
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Ben Clapperton
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If you look at the daily data and map onto it the large add-on reveals (Hephaestus, Poisdeidon, Hera, bundles, Titans) you'll see the exact same pattern of a two-day spike in pledges, with a big drop-off on the following day. In all bar the first, Hephaestus, the spike was greater on the first day than the second, and this effect is exaggerated over the course of the campaign as people get used to Leo Live and pledging when the add-on is made available.

What we would expect to see from the Titan add-on is a spike on day one, a slightly smaller spike on day two, and a big drop on day three, and this is exactly what we have. The Projection Cone predicts based off the previous day's pledges. That means on day two of the spike it is predicting off day one, and on the day three drop off it is predicting off day two. So we should expect to see the prediction drop today, and this is exactly what has happened. It is nothing to do with Sisyphus, and everything to do with there being close to 48 hours since the last paid for add-on was revealed, as it is the larger paid for add-ons which cause the spikes.

Furthermore, the Titan add-on is the first since the bundles were announced. You can clearly see the effect the bundles had on the total when they were announced, meaning this was the first large add-on to be made available in which backers who up their pledge for each new one did not have to do so, as they had already done it by pledging for the bundle. Despite that, Titans has outperformed Hephaestus, Poseidon, and Hera.
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Emivaldo Sousa
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I am trying to discuss the game on social media to promote it. Today I had nothing to say. And that's the first day that happens since I have started doing it.
 
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ace hawkster
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acehawkster1973 wrote:
I reckon the big black box is conan base game


That would be a decent value. And shipping costs will continue to skyrocket. But what would the last small be? I don't think we will have that many Conan-related expansions.[/q]
No idea I didn't back conan but it seems tome all the stuff down the bottom is conan related was there a conan add on in that small box size ?
 
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Mike Beiter
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I hope the other shadowy box is NOT Conan.
I have no interest in getting a different game added on to my pledge.

I hope all remaining content to be revealed is strictly just this game.
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Ben Clapperton
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They've said a few times that they don't want to add the Conan core box to the campaign because it is coming out at retail now. Even in the case of the expansions, which might not make retail, Leo said if it was to happen at all it would be during the pledge manager and not the campaign.
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ace hawkster
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MajaiofDreams wrote:
I hope the other shadowy box is NOT Conan.
I have no interest in getting a different game added on to my pledge.

I hope all remaining content to be revealed is strictly just this game.


Which is 100 % why I'm in at 299.00 plus base pledge at the moment as I also have no interest in any of the conan stuff.
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ace hawkster
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redben wrote:
They've said a few times that they don't want to add the Conan core box to the campaign because it is coming out at retail now. Even in the case of the expansions, which might not make retail, Leo said if it was to happen at all it would be during the pledge manager and not the campaign.

So what do you think those two boxes are ??
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M. S.
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acehawkster1973 wrote:
redben wrote:
They've said a few times that they don't want to add the Conan core box to the campaign because it is coming out at retail now. Even in the case of the expansions, which might not make retail, Leo said if it was to happen at all it would be during the pledge manager and not the campaign.

So what do you think those two boxes are ??

one box holds all the evils of the world
the second hope
So you can fill Pandora's box thematically after you take out your goodies.
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Mike Beiter
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I'm hoping that one is filled with a god or 2 plus heroes and troops.

And the other some large monsters like the Phoenix and Gryphon.
 
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Ben Clapperton
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acehawkster1973 wrote:
redben wrote:
They've said a few times that they don't want to add the Conan core box to the campaign because it is coming out at retail now. Even in the case of the expansions, which might not make retail, Leo said if it was to happen at all it would be during the pledge manager and not the campaign.

So what do you think those two boxes are ??


It obviously can't be minis for MB as they would be in the Titan pledge too. A new terrain box is a possibility for the smaller one. Honestly have no idea what the larger one is. I wouldn't say it definitely isn't Conan. Only that they've been pretty clear that they wouldn't be offering the Conan core box in this campaign, so they'd be going back on that to include it. It may be something as simple as a special Typhon box for all your stuff. Not as exciting as Conan if it is, obviously, though the discount on the bundle is already over $100 before the reveal of the final few items.
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Daniel Guinoza
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zinho73 wrote:
I am trying to discuss the game on social media to promote it. Today I had nothing to say. And that's the first day that happens since I have started doing it.


Thank you for your effort, hope we break 2M!

asgorn wrote:
acehawkster1973 wrote:
redben wrote:
They've said a few times that they don't want to add the Conan core box to the campaign because it is coming out at retail now. Even in the case of the expansions, which might not make retail, Leo said if it was to happen at all it would be during the pledge manager and not the campaign.

So what do you think those two boxes are ??

one box holds all the evils of the world
the second hope
So you can fill Pandora's box thematically after you take out your goodies.


It can't be pandora. Pandora's box is going to be the one including the stretch goals.
Edit: Apparently Leo implied it was a SG?

Edit: The map reveal appears to be correlated to a good effect. We are back on track!
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