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Subject: 777 pledge, will it really be worth it? rss

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Hugh Jorgan
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I want everything at the 777 level pledge, except most of the pinups and promos so far. I don't really care for a t-shirt either. I'm amused by most of the pinups, but don't really think they're things I'd want to spend money on. The role survivors are the ones I want, but I already own them. I might add one or two, but I'm very happy with the Sculptures so far and think they'll be more than sufficient for actual board use.

Things I want:

Update Pack - $60
Gamblers Chest - $100
Expansions (4 so far) - $175
Mystery Expansion - ?
Possible 2nd Mystery Expansion (at end of KS video) - ?

Total - $335

Skimming through the old newsletters, Poots stated that the expansions he's working on, which haven't been announced yet, are:

- Ringtail Fox
- Black Knight
- Gryphon
- Storm Knight

From the info gathered, I'd say we could optimistically expect 6-7 more expansions out of this campaign.
Unless something like 10 new expansions are announced, or holding a value of at least $400, I'm basically paying for things I don't want and it seems like a better idea to just pledge for the $195 pledge, which includes the Update pack, Chest and First Hero Expansion.
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Tim J
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I think you answered your own question. If you don't care about the pinups, it comes down to the bundled expansions included at that tier making the deal. Just hold on to the pledge and you'll know when we get to the end.

With that said, there definitely more content than what you listed there. To name a few...

Mountain Man
Flower Witch + Disciples
Rust Ocean

But seriously, just buckle up and enjoy the ride. No need to make a decision right now.
 
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Henry Akeley
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The silhouette of the next expansion appears to be the Flower Witch. I really hope its her. If so I'll have to nab it.
 
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David Villa
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I'm in the same boat. Grabbed a $777 pledge but just want Gameplay items, so the pinups and promos are just bonus items I would plan on re-selling anyway. If the value gets up there with gameplay expansions, I'll keep the pledge, but if not, I will drop it for a Silver Lantern pledge and just add-on what I want.

I suspect the $777 pledge level is the most up in the air right now for value and we may see a lot of people dropping it at the end of the campaign if things don't significantly change.
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Dérek Boily
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synik224 wrote:

Rust Ocean


About that, would it be possible that the oxidized gear and the GSK are somewhat related to this? I mean... Oxidized gear.
 
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Greasy Reese
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dajebriza wrote:
I'm in the same boat. Grabbed a $777 pledge but just want Gameplay items, so the pinups and promos are just bonus items I would plan on re-selling anyway. If the value gets up there with gameplay expansions, I'll keep the pledge, but if not, I will drop it for a Silver Lantern pledge and just add-on what I want.

I suspect the $777 pledge level is the most up in the air right now for value and we may see a lot of people dropping it at the end of the campaign if things don't significantly change.

I'm in the same boat. Currently have the Gambler's Lantern, but mostly interested in the Gameplay content.

I've created a cost analysis tool that I will be updating throughout the campaign here:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1685860/

Keep an eye on these tables specifically to compare the Gambler's Lantern with the gameplay content:


Pledge: Black Friday Gambler’s Lantern ($777)


- Estimated KS Value = $ 480 Additional $297 ( 62%)
- Estimated MSRP Value = $1,025 Savings of $248 ( 24%)
- Game Content Only = $ 335 Additional $442 (132%), but you also get the pinups/promos.

Gambler's Lantern Items Type KS Price MSRP

Update Pack 1.5 Core Update $ 60 $ 125 (see above)
Gambler's Chest Bonus Content $ 100 $ 300 (see above)
Exclusive T-Shirt Bonus Content $ 0 $ 25
The First Hero New Exp $ 35 $ 70
Nightmare Ram New Exp $ 40 $ 80
Screaming God New Exp $ 50 $ 100
Frogdog New Exp $ 50 $ 90
Pinup Dung Ball Pinup F $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Dung Beetle Dancer Pinup F $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Dung Beetle Knight Pinup F $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Screaming God Armour Pinup F $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Gold Smoke Knight Armour Pinup F $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Male Twilight Knight Pinup M $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Male Dung Beetle Dancer Pinup M $ 15 $ 25
Pinup Male Screaming God Armor Pinup M $ 15 $ 25
Role Survivors Promo $ 25 $ 35 (estimate)
Total $ 480 $1,025



Piecemeal: New Gameplay Items (currently at $335)


- Includes the Silver Lantern as your base pledge, plus all other new gameplay items as add-ons.
- Estimated MSRP Value = $765 Savings of $430 (56%)
- Gambler's Pledge = $777 Savings of $442 (57%), but you don't get the pinups/promos.

New Gameplay Items Type KS Price MSRP

Silver Lantern Pledge Level $ 195 $ 495 (see above
Nightmare Ram New Exp $ 40 $ 80
Screaming God New Exp $ 50 $ 100
Frogdog New Exp $ 50 $ 90
Total $ 335 $ 765


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James Shaw
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dajebriza wrote:
I'm in the same boat. Grabbed a $777 pledge but just want Gameplay items, so the pinups and promos are just bonus items I would plan on re-selling anyway. If the value gets up there with gameplay expansions, I'll keep the pledge, but if not, I will drop it for a Silver Lantern pledge and just add-on what I want.

I suspect the $777 pledge level is the most up in the air right now for value and we may see a lot of people dropping it at the end of the campaign if things don't significantly change.


Yep, me too.
I'm still optimistic that 777 level will get its value in game content given Poot's stellar history. The pessimistic side of me is fearful Poots might have missed by miles on the Satan pledges, and is thus reluctant to add too many new game content as to bound the potential loss there. Very much hope that is not the case.
 
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James Shaw
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Cool table. Please keep it updated.
 
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Greasy Reese
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jshtnt wrote:
Cool table. Please keep it updated.

Will do, but not here. The full tool will be updated and available here:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1685860/
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Paul Johnson
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My rough estimate is that it will be worth it.

Update = $60
Chest = $100
Expansions = estimated $525 (assuming 12 expansions, current avg is 43.75 per expansion)
Everything else = $92

Getting everything else for $92 (or possibly even less given that there may be a 13th expansion now) is going to be a good deal.

The key thing to realize is that no money has actually been spent yet by anyone, and Poots has all the incentive in the world to make the higher pledge levels attractive to the people who have pledged large sums of money. If those pledge levels aren't worth it by the end, you could see people move away from them en masse and I'm pretty sure he doesn't want that.

Another twist is that recent updates have changed the cost of expansions as add-ons to an existing pledge from 50% of MSRP to 66% of MSRP (the Flower Knight reprint for example). If this trend continues, it will make the bundle pledges even more attractive than picking and choosing what you want to go with a base level pledge.
 
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sam newman

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hwknight wrote:

I want everything at the 777 level pledge, except most of the pinups and promos so far. I don't really care for a t-shirt either. I'm amused by most of the pinups, but don't really think they're things I'd want to spend money on. The role survivors are the ones I want, but I already own them. I might add one or two, but I'm very happy with the Sculptures so far and think they'll be more than sufficient for actual board use.

Things I want:

Update Pack - $60
Gamblers Chest - $100
Expansions (4 so far) - $175
Mystery Expansion - ?
Possible 2nd Mystery Expansion (at end of KS video) - ?

Total - $335

Skimming through the old newsletters, Poots stated that the expansions he's working on, which haven't been announced yet, are:

- Ringtail Fox
- Black Knight
- Gryphon
- Storm Knight

From the info gathered, I'd say we could optimistically expect 6-7 more expansions out of this campaign.
Unless something like 10 new expansions are announced, or holding a value of at least $400, I'm basically paying for things I don't want and it seems like a better idea to just pledge for the $195 pledge, which includes the Update pack, Chest and First Hero Expansion.


I dont see 6 or 7 more epxansions that would be ridiculous. Im expecting 3 more 4 max.
 
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AGN1964 AGN1964
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This thread seems to be made for me .

I have the same kind of spreadsheet, but slightly different emphasis. I like the female pinups, but I don't need them all. I see very little value in the Gambler's Lantern NS minis (more White Lion armor!! Thanks, but no need), but I do want the game play cards. I can pass on some expansions - Ram and Frogdog.

I was hoping the $777 would be so much value that it would be a no brainer compared to a la carte selection. We were off to a very good start, but it has stalled a bit.

Still, lots of time to go and I've seen Poots be very generous. I hope it all works out.
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Freelance Police
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Going to put on my superhero costume, but, after FF, I can easily say that worth is subjective. Some backers want pinups, some want gameplay. Prepare the spreadsheets, but resist the temptation to make a decision until the last 48 hours of the KS campaign because you don't have enough information to make a decision.
 
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Salvador Bernadó
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In the first KS, with less money pledged than this one, there were 12 expansions announced. Only one has failed at the end.
So I would think there will be a few more expansions announced before the campaign ends.
However if somebody doesn't want all the expansions and doesn't want any of the pinups nor promos, I think he is not pledging at the best level for what he wants.
You can sell all pinups, promos and expansions you don't want but, that will be years after you paid in full. Probably you will win a bit of money too, since things in the KS are cheaper than on retail but if you're not comfortable on spending all that money up front, then don't do it.
Remember, though, that the $777 level is not available anymore so think twice before dropping it because you won't be able to take it again later.
 
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AGN1964 AGN1964
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Quote:
In the first KS, with less money pledged than this one, there were 12 expansions announced. Only one has failed at the end.
So I would think there will be a few more expansions announced before the campaign ends.


But this campaign has a lot of all-in bundle pledges, so Poots has to keep giving expansions away. I think this is the limiting factor, not the total raised or the development time.
 
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Graham
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AGN1964 wrote:
Quote:
In the first KS, with less money pledged than this one, there were 12 expansions announced. Only one has failed at the end.
So I would think there will be a few more expansions announced before the campaign ends.


But this campaign has a lot of all-in bundle pledges, so Poots has to keep giving expansions away. I think this is the limiting factor, not the total raised or the development time.


Poots has hopefully learned the tough lesson from the previous KS and pre-determined what expansions he's able to incluse while still being profitable. The all-in pledges mean that he's not actually giving anything away for free ... it's already costed into the pledge price.
 
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François Mahieu
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Pinups, pinups, pinups... Well. I'll be patient but right now, I must say I'm quite disappointed and was awaiting a bit more from a KDM campaign.

 
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Klutz
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poifpoif wrote:
Pinups, pinups, pinups... Well. I'll be patient but right now, I must say I'm quite disappointed and was awaiting a bit more from a KDM campaign.



If you pretend that the updates announcing pinups never even happened, then it's like Poots has announced 3 new expansions in 2 weeks! At that rate we'll be getting 5 more by the end!!

 
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terry chang
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your posted helped me...i was in Black Friday Gambler’s Lantern ($777)
and because this KS is so confusing, i thought it includes the core game($777 is expensive upgrade from $300 i originally backed)
so i thought i will get core game +exp + promos + ping up
but after read your post sumup, i realise it doesn't even include the core game, i think i will drop it since i don't have core game , the upgrade pack is useless to me.
 
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Greasy Reese
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Yexil wrote:
AGN1964 wrote:
Quote:
In the first KS, with less money pledged than this one, there were 12 expansions announced. Only one has failed at the end.
So I would think there will be a few more expansions announced before the campaign ends.


But this campaign has a lot of all-in bundle pledges, so Poots has to keep giving expansions away. I think this is the limiting factor, not the total raised or the development time.


Poots has hopefully learned the tough lesson from the previous KS and pre-determined what expansions he's able to incluse while still being profitable. The all-in pledges mean that he's not actually giving anything away for free ... it's already costed into the pledge price.

Right now the items in the $777 pledge can be purchased piecemeal for $495. That means he has to add at least $282 worth of more content in order for that pledge to be worthwhile for backers.

Likewise, the $1,666 pledge currently has around $1,530 worth of stuff and will need more in order for it to be a worthwhile option. This one is a little trickier though, since it has the benefit of including all of the KS1 items that can not be added to any other pledge level.

I fully expect the value of the all-in pledges to exceed their asking prices by the end of the campaign. Otherwise nobody will pick them.
 
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