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Subject: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Arctic. rss

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Steve
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This almost certainly means that Methanhydrates (sorry about the spelling) are melting from the Artic Sea floor and other Methane is coming from the tundra.

If this is so then earth has alredy passed the critical tipping point.

This is, according to Guy McPherson, the beginning of an almost certainly unstoppable process that will raise temp over the next several years to very high levels. Something like 10 deg. C higher than now, that's 20 Deg. F or so.

If this happens Guy says that all or almost all humans will die before 2030. The end of humanity. Certainly the end of civilization. The beginning of a 10,000 year long Dark Age.

And we here at RSP are going on as if nothing is going wrong. If Guy is right then in 2 or 3 years time there will be no doubt that something awful is happening.

 
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lotus dweller
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
My strong preference is that you are wrong.

Could you supply a link to the info please?
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Please do the poll before taking in more data.
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.

Poll
What chance do you think there is that Steve is correct?
Please select the closest of the percentage probabilities given in the poll below. Select the probability below your assesment if your estimate is half way between listed probabilities.
Version 3 includes more low value percentages and 0%.
What is the probability that Steve is correct in your estimation?
0%
0.0001%
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0.5%
1%
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      41 answers
Poll created by Pinook
 
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Pinook wrote:
My strong preference is that you are wrong.

Could you supply a link to the info please?

Mine too.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqIt93dDG1M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wamCRj6VG0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wamCRj6VG0 About the last time this happened at the end of the Permian.

I can't see yet the data that really scared me.

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Christopher Dearlove
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
I've no idea who Guy McPherson is, and don't feel like checking. But this shows that while the majority of views against the general consensus of the experts is head in the sand deny there's a problem, not all. This idea that all humans will die by 2030 is just plain nuts. In fact even more nuts than any contrarian view in the opposite direction.
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
I voted for 50%.

I'd add a +/- 20% points range.

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Mac Mcleod
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
I'd like to see a formal investigation of it. The videos on YouTube seem to be potentially infotainment there's always a risk that that one guy has spotted something that no one else has but it's less likely these days than it used to be.

If we get some peer review and they start saying holy crap as well and that will be different.
 
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
I have tried to vote twice.

Both times it didn't register.

Why?

 
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lotus dweller
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Steve1501 wrote:
I have tried to vote twice.

Both times it didn't register.

Why?


GM sent
 
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Pinook wrote:
Steve1501 wrote:
I have tried to vote twice.

Both times it didn't register.

Why?


GM sent

I just now tried again and it didn't register.


Chiang Mai is 310 m high.

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Oh my God They Banned Kenny
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Based on empirical evidence I choose that there is 0% chance that he is correct. About anything.
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Oliver Dienz
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
The underlying problem is real as methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 (by a factor of ~24) and there are plenty of reservoirs of methane hydrates. If we would get a rapid offgassing of just some of those deposits we could get close to the described doomsday scenario. Fortunately, most of those reservoirs are not susceptible to global warming and methane is not very stable in the atmosphere, kind of self-limiting its impact. Here is an overview of the problem:
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00297882/document

We will probably only be able to tell decades later whether we have already reached some kind of tipping point. Nevertheless, from my (limited) reading of the climate literature I get the impression that the described release of methane from hydrates is feared as a positive feedback loop which could quickly amplify the warming beyond the calculated effects of CO2. Ocean acidification is a negative feedback loop whose impact was underestimated at first but worked in our favor, at least concerning the climate. The large scale release of methane would work the other way.
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Shawn Fox
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Methane has a half life in the 6 to 8 year range in the atmosphere. Hard to see how we are going to get enough of it to trigger a doomsday scenario.
 
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
That certainly answers the question of why the atmosphere seems to have a slight fart smell to it lately.
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casey r lowe
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
in the 70s scientists have predicted the end of the world by 2050 - so what kind of idiot would believe them when they say 40 years later that humanity is going to die out by 2030
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Robert Stuart
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
single sentences wrote:
in the 70s scientists have predicted the end of the world by 2050


Oh? No scientists that I've ever heard of.
 
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Checking on how exact death ℅ need to be
Poll: How exact does Steve's scenario need to be before you say "correct"?
There are a lot of poll respondents estimating that there is less than a one in a million chance that Steve is correct. Would like to know just what die-off figures would make Steve correct for people here. !All people here, not just the 0% ers.)
I'd say Steve was correct if the following proportion of the current human population figure had died due to runaway climate change triggered by releases of undersea methane.
0℅
1%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60℅
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97%
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Poll created by Pinook
 
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Sam I am
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
DWTripp wrote:
That certainly answers the question of why the atmosphere seems to have a slight fart smell to it lately.


Was it in a highly geocentric field?
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Oh my God They Banned Kenny
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
If everyone on Earth dies, then I will admit that Steve was right.
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Oliver Dienz
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
DWTripp wrote:
That certainly answers the question of why the atmosphere seems to have a slight fart smell to it lately.

I could not myself call a geek if I would not remark that methane is essentially odorless. Utilities add an odorant (usually t-butyl mercaptan) which has the smell of rotten eggs. Without it people would have problems noticing a gas leak.
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Pinook wrote:
There are a lot of poll respondents estimating that there is less than a one in a million chance that Steve is correct. Would like to know just what die-off figures would make Steve correct for people here. !All people here, not just the 0% ers.)

And everyone of them thinks that climate change is not caused by humans.

Asking their opinion of this is like asking a Flat Earther where is the best place to station a geocentric satellite to give the best coverage. Since they deny that satellites can orbit the Earth, their opinion is not worth much about where to put a satellite.
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
bob_santafe wrote:
single sentences wrote:
in the 70s scientists have predicted the end of the world by 2050 - so what kind of idiot would believe them when they say 40 years later that humanity is going to die out by 2030


Oh? No scientists that I've ever heard of.

I think he was referring to the "Club of Rome Report."

To answer him -- the report claimed that if no changes were made at that time [they were not made] then between 2050 and 2100 there would be a huge crisis and a die off of humans. One possible cause of the die off would be pollution. Since "Global Climate Change (warming)" is caused by a form of pollution I would say that if there is a die off by 2030 that they would have been proven totally right. They just got the timing off by a little.

 
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Steve
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
How about a little fairness here?

Guy McPherson said everyone would die.

I said that it might not be that bad. I said that civilization would end.
That a Dark Age might last for 10,000 years. Not that all would die.

I didn't, myself, agree with him totally. I said so.

So those who demand 100% dead for me to be right are just plain wrong. But then, why should I expect honesty from Repuds and climate deniers?

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Christopher Dearlove
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Re: Massive quantities of Methane are outgassing in the Artic.
Steve1501 wrote:
How about a little fairness here?

Guy McPherson said everyone would die.

I said that it might not be that bad. I said that civilization would end.
That a Dark Age might last for 10,000 years. Not that all would die.

I didn't, myself, agree with him totally. I said so.

So those who demand 100% dead for me to be right are just plain wrong. But then, why should I expect honesty from Repuds and climate deniers?


You don't need to be a climate denier to recognise that all humans dead by 2030 is nonsense. And Dark Age for 10,000 years is just a silly prediction - even if you had absolute positive knowledge that a dark age was about to start (which of course you have anything but) you wouldn't have a clue how long for - 10,000 years is just a pulled out of thin air no basis for it at all number.

Idiocies like this are actually enablers for climate change denial, because it feeds the "I don't believe that" meme with something that is worth not believing. If, as an analogy, climate change denial were a disease, this would be the proverbial cure that is worse than the disease.

(There is only one, maybe two, human driven scenarios that kill off most people by 2030. One is nuclear war, the maybe is biological war. Otherwise the timescale is too short.)

And I still don't know who this "Guy McPherson" whose name you throw around as if it means anything is.
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