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Subject: German opening in Scenario #1: Is this all legal? rss

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Josh Luub
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Can someone help me out by verifying that these moves are all legal?

Germans start with initiative, and they get to pick their first AM. They pick 8th Panzer.

The stack in 2926 (3 Motorcycle Infantry, 1 Armored Car, 1 SP-AT) moves to 2826 (1/2 MP, along the road), then to 2725 (1/2 road + 1 for moving into enemy ZOC, total of 2 MP so far). Now they overrun into hex 2625, which costs 3 MP (1 for clear terrain, 1 for crossing an unbridged stream, 1 for overrun).

The combat odds are 2-1 (8 for the German stack, 3 defense for the Soviet tank). There is a +2 DRM for attacking across the stream, but a -3 DRM for ER difference. The mobile CRT is always used for overrun (although this stack of German units wouldn't normally be eligible to use the mobile CRT, since it contains no armor). The die roll is 2, modified to 1, the result is A1D2R. The Soviets only have one step, so the German losses are reduced by one (by rule 11.24), to none. The Soviet tank is eliminated, giving the Germans 1 VP. The fact that the combat result is in a shaded box is irrelevant; the Germans have no armor and the Soviets have no anti-tank units.

The SP-AT has used all its movement, but the motorcycle infantry and the armored car still have 2 MP. So the SP-AT stays in 2625, and the other units overrun into 2524, which costs their last 2 MP (one for clear terrain, one for overrun). The combat odds are 7-1 (the defending Soviet artillery starts on its fired side, so it has only 1 defense strength). The mobile table is again used, let's just assume the Soviet artillery is destroyed without German losses; another 1 VP for the Germans.

Once the Germans are done with movement (they have some other 8th Pz units to move, but I'll just skip that), they can attack the Soviet infantry unit in 2624 with the SP-AT in 2625 and the other units in 2524. This will give 4-1 odds, this time on the Assault CRT. The Germans can call in CAS (as they could have in the overruns), but the Soviets can not (they don't have an HQ within 4 hexes). They also couldn't have used CAS defending against the overruns (neither side can do that).

Assuming this is all correct, it looks like the Germans have a pretty good chance of eliminating 3 Soviet units, getting 2 VP, and capturing Sitnya on their first activation!
 
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Jesse Smit
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Yep that all sounds correct to me. I think its pretty likely that this scenario will always open with the german played eliminating at least 2 of those 3 soviet units at Sitnya.

If you look at scenario 2 - which is scenario 1 but starting at a later turn, those units are already eliminated. They basically have no chance, if theyre lucky they just get to slightly slow the germans down on their way to Soltsy .
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stuart cudahy
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I do that too, the system teaches pretty well----the game gets interesting with Russian survivor placement--if there are any!!! lol

--one query----armor attrition, shaded boxes---88 units only units in game with red defence strength?---So Germans cant be affected by armor attrition? cheers Stu
 
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Jason Cawley
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No, this is not a valid, legal opening move. But you can try something similar if you are willing to take the risks.

The overrun attempt on the KV battalion is fine. A little risky, in that a 9 costs you 2 steps, one of them the lead quality 7 unit, while removing the KV, while a 0 costs you the lead quality 7 unit and leaves you stopped on the road. The Russian artillery will survive in the second case (admittedly not a high chance), and may support (40% full else half) in the combat phase. In addition, the attempt has only a 60% chance of destroying the KV unit - rolls 3-6 force it to retreat but leave it alive.

That is all just chances though. The illegal aspect of the move is the second overrun from the victory hex directed at the artillery battalion. Since it is yellow banded, it does not render the overrun attempt illegal under 8.64d (no overruns from a hex in ZOC of 2 different enemy hexes), but it does violate 8.67i, this clause "if the defender hex that the overrunning stack had just entered is in another enemy ZOC, the overrunning force either overruns the hex projecting the ZOC, or movement ceases". This means only the Russian motor rifle battalion is a possibly target for a second overrun, not the artillery regiment.

Since the SPAT is left in the overrun hex, that means the continuation against the motor rifle battalion will be made at 3:1, assuming the 1st overun succeeded without loss, with a -2 mod (already across the river, quality differential -3 and village +1). Which gives no chance of outright failure nor of loss, but a 40% chance the motor rifle is only "pushed" not killed.

If the first overrun succeeded but with 2 lost steps (initial roll 9) then the odds can be the same if the AC was lead and it and the SPAT are the losses take. Even on a push the artillery regiment can be killed easily in the combat phase, only an initial "0" on the first overrun will save that one.

You are left with the following possibility tree as a result -

10% - step loss and fails outright
4% - 2 step losses, tanks killed and infantry only pushed
6% - 2 step losses, whole enemy group killed
16% - both tanks and infantry only pushed, only arty killed
24% - tanks only pushed, infantry and arty killed
16% - tanks and arty killed, infantry only pushed
24% - whole group destroyed without loss

Overall that is 0.3 expected own-side losses and 26% chance at least 2 enemy are left alive.

Notice that you can't improve these chances by using air - all the initial German air units are bombers, not attack planes, and as such can't help with overruns, only normal battles. Also, the HQ is with the 2nd KG and will not be within 4 hexes of the overrun location unless that KG is moved first, which defeats the purpose of opening the road with a risk attack anyway (it is also moot due to the previous).

The upside to it, on the other hand, is that if the road is cleared (even by pushes, since you can direct those away from the road), is that the 2nd KG can reach Dubrovo on the first impulse of the AM turn. Its combat power gets wasted for the impulse, but it is that much closer to the objective and correspondingly dangerous.

If only one unit is pushed it can readily be left in e.g. hex 2424 (or even 2423 for the rifle) and barely reached by the 2nd KG, which should have no difficulty eliminating one of them in the combat phase, in that event.

The alternative of using the cycle's speed to envelope instead of striking with the closed fist has its own downsides. You can reach 2623 with the fast elements, neatly passing the river and ready to destroy the rifle battalion. On the other flank you can send one unit as far as 2325, deep enough to be pretty sure of bagging any survivors after the advances etc. But you can't actually reach the critical spot next to the guns at 2525, because the KVs ZOC neutralizes the bridge and road movement rates, forcing 2 stream crossing penalties as well as the ZOC penalties. The panzer KG destroys the KVs in either case. (With a 3 point quality differential the air, arty and combat rolls all have to break hard against you to even suffer an AR result there).


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Josh Luub
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Thanks for the comprehensive reply! This will give me a good excuse to get this game out and try to follow along with your response. And now I know who to ask if I have more questions!

 
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