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Subject: Major Statistical Breakthrough rss

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Keith Anderson
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After much study of wars across all periods, it turns out that the probability of almost anything happening is a multiple or power of 1/6

In other news, this seems also to be the case for almost anything else that you would care to simulate.

So much for the power of pi
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Alfy Burger
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GamePlayer wrote:
After much study of wars across all periods, it turns out that the probability of almost anything happening is a multiple or power of 1/6

In other news, this seems also to be the case for almost anything else that you would care to simulate.

So much for the power of pi


- looks around for all his wargames containing d10s and throws them in the garbage in a huff -
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Jim Cote
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Might as well toss my pi dice as well.

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Rex Stites
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GamePlayer wrote:
After much study of wars across all periods, it turns out that the probability of almost anything happening is a multiple or power of 1/6

In other news, this seems also to be the case for almost anything else that you would care to simulate.

So much for the power of pi


Your attempt at wit belies a general ignorance of the hobby.



And the pictured mechanic is generally maligned because of its crudeness and brute-force-and-ignorance approach to adjusting probability distribution.
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Jon Gautier

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Hey, isn't that a bucket?
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Barry Harvey
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Dieroll Honker wrote:
Hey, isn't that a bucket?

If you're going to roll a bucket of dice then you need a dice bucket.
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R B
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I simplify things even further and just use a coin flip. You can get through a lot more games that way.
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michael connor
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The Eagles Of The Empire: Preussisch-Eylau system has it where on a roll of '6' a hit is inflicted. That roll can be modified or unmodified. This mechanic was a refit of the original Eagles of the Empire: Borodino/Eagles of the Empire: Friedland games which originally had a more complex and somewhat time-consuming procedure. When I first heard of this, I thought it was an idiotic and lazy design element, but for some reason, it sort of works! And seems to get historical results. I don't know if it would work for pre-gunpowder periods though.

---

The 1-in-6 concept seems to also be numerically close to the Pareto Principle or 80/20 rule of which the application to wargaming as far as I know has yet to be explored or attempted
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Keith Anderson
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ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.



Come on 3.1415926...
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Michael Sommers
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ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.

That's not a rational thing to do.
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Cisco Serret
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Zenflash wrote:
I simplify things even further and just use a coin flip. You can get through a lot more games that way.


some wargames come close to that.
 
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T. Dauphin
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tms2 wrote:
ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.

That's not a rational thing to do.




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Eddy Sterckx
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xmfcnrx wrote:
The Eagles Of The Empire: Preussisch-Eylau system has it where on a roll of '6' a hit is inflicted. That roll can be modified or unmodified. This mechanic was a refit of the original Eagles of the Empire: Borodino/Eagles of the Empire: Friedland games which originally had a more complex and somewhat time-consuming procedure. When I first heard of this, I thought it was an idiotic and lazy design element, but for some reason, it sort of works! And seems to get historical results. I don't know if it would work for pre-gunpowder periods though.


I used the same system in my wargame p&p entry from last year Waterloo Squares - it's all about the granularity and chance distribution you want to achieve. In the end the only yardstick there is is : "does this result look historically plausible" - if so, it doesn't matter how simple (or complicated) you made your crt's. I'm not ready yet with the follow-up game which will test if this system can be ported to WWII, but early tests are promising.

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Brandon
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tms2 wrote:
ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.

That's not a rational thing to do.


But the result can be transcendental...
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Bob Zurunkel
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GamePlayer wrote:
ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.



Come on 3.1415926...


Baby needs a new pair of radii!
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Gone C. Profile
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rstites25 wrote:
And the pictured mechanic is generally maligned because of its crudeness and brute-force-and-ignorance approach to adjusting probability distribution.

Bah, crudeness & brute force sure beats ahistorical factor counting in odds-based CRTs.
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Larry Haskell
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ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.



These dice aren't real. One is imaginary, the other just irrational.
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TonyKR
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gamedog wrote:
ekted wrote:
Might as well toss my pi dice as well.



These dice aren't real. One is imaginary, the other just irrational.

And yet, amazingly, the opposite-side pairs still add up to 7.
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