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Subject: Indicating interest in math trade items rss

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Jason Maxwell
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First a disclaimer, this was Tatsu's idea, he just hasn't posted it yet and I wanted to get discussion started. Any kudos should go to him.

With the thumbs up ability for individual Geeklist items, what if those were used on a math trade list to indicate interest in the item? Each person that is considering putting an item on their lists would give it a thumbs up.

It wouldn't be considered a commitment to put that item on your lists, but it would give the users who listed the item an idea of how popular their items were. That way if they put up an item that not many people want, they could conisder listing more items on their want lists in order to increase the chances of getting a trade.

Thoughts?
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James Perry
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Good idea.

It would also let people know that they need to sweeten an offer if they want something gone without having to wait until the next math trade to do so.

I like it.
 
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Jeremy Shelton
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My initial kneejerk reaction is that's a great idea. The only problem I see is that this approach gives a distinct advantage to the early entrants. Late entrants don't have as much time for others to look over their entries (and thumb them) before the list is closed and want lists must be generated. Of course I guess late entrants could just wait during the want list generation time and see how many thumbs they get, but that leads to another problem for everybody: how do you tell how many of the participants have gone through the list and thumbed their interests? I think you would need a way to disclose this information or the thumbs wouldn't be much use I imagine.
 
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Chris
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Staban Tuek wrote:
The only problem I see is that this approach gives a distinct advantage to the early entrants.

On the flip-side, this might encourage people to enter early instead of the usual mass additions on the last day.
 
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Ken
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Bad idea. I you want to run an exclusionary mt, just build in submission restrictions (also a bad idea, imo). It sounds like the reason you want something like this is that you want to control the type of stuff added.
 
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Jason Maxwell
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artfuldodge2 wrote:
Bad idea. I you want to run an exclusionary mt, just build in submission restrictions (also a bad idea, imo). It sounds like the reason you want something like this is that you want to control the type of stuff added.


Huh? I don't follow your logic. This wouldn't exclude anything, it would just be an indicator of how interested the rest of the participants are in what you put in the math trade. You get that same info at the end of the math trade when the want lists are posted, this would just give it to you before you submit your want lists so that you can judge how restrictive you want to be with your trade list.
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James Perry
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LetsGetTrivial wrote:
Staban Tuek wrote:
The only problem I see is that this approach gives a distinct advantage to the early entrants.

On the flip-side, this might encourage people to enter early instead of the usual mass additions on the last day.


It would definately encourage this kind of behavior. Now, some people would still wait until the last minute but then they don't get the advantage of having their stuff listed early.

[edit] The only negative I see is that the more popular an item is, there is a chance that the want list from that item will become more exclusionary. However, that may be mitigated by the fact that the most popular items are already pretty exclusionary with their wants. [/edit]
 
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Mattwran
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Interesting idea, but I think it's dependent on people acting against their own self-interest. If I really want a game, shouldn't I avoid thumbing it in the hopes that the owner will think the game is unpopular and expand his want list? I don't want to sound cynical and suggest that everyone would game the system like this, but this is a site of gamers after all.
 
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Rik Van Horn
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mattwran wrote:
Interesting idea, but I think it's dependent on people acting against their own self-interest. If I really want a game, shouldn't I avoid thumbing it in the hopes that the owner will think the game is unpopular and expand his want list? I don't want to sound cynical and suggest that everyone would game the system like this, but this is a site of gamers after all.

I can only see that as a possible instance for low end items. Big ticket items are going to have limited want lists whether a lot or a little interest is expressed.
Plus I seriously doubt the majority of traders will actually be that sly about the trade.
 
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Daniel Corban
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This brings up a related topic that may be affected by this thumbing method.

I don't know about everyone else, but when I am selecting between several identical games (I don't want to risk getting multiple copies), I actually choose the one I think will be least wanted. For example, if someone is offering a particular game sealed and someone else has the same game but used, I will select the used one. I do this because I believe the open one will be on less want lists, increasing my chance of getting the game, and also increasing the chance the game actually trades, which increases trades for everyone.

While I think the thumbing method would theoretically improve trading for everyone, I don't believe enough people will do it to make it effective.
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Mattwran
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Rokkr wrote:
mattwran wrote:
Interesting idea, but I think it's dependent on people acting against their own self-interest. If I really want a game, shouldn't I avoid thumbing it in the hopes that the owner will think the game is unpopular and expand his want list? I don't want to sound cynical and suggest that everyone would game the system like this, but this is a site of gamers after all.

I can only see that as a possible instance for low end items. Big ticket items are going to have limited want lists whether a lot or a little interest is expressed.
Plus I seriously doubt the majority of traders will actually be that sly about the trade.


I don't think it's really a question of being sly. The question is - what is the motivation for going through the lists and thumbing everything you're interested in? You give other people valuable info, but are actively hurting your own chances of trading for any of those items. Systems that depend on people acting altruisticly tend to have low rates of participation (for example - the number of people who watch/listen to public radio and television versus those who donate to the stations).
 
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Davido
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one other point-the thumbs give a quick indicator of who is interested, so that may be an easier way to identify 'post-trade-trades' for non-traded items albeit it *could* lead to people submitting 'empty lists' to try to cut direct trades. I'd like to see an informal 'thumbs system' though.
 
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Ed Sherman
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JasonRMax wrote:
artfuldodge2 wrote:
Bad idea. I you want to run an exclusionary mt, just build in submission restrictions (also a bad idea, imo). It sounds like the reason you want something like this is that you want to control the type of stuff added.


Huh? I don't follow your logic. This wouldn't exclude anything, it would just be an indicator of how interested the rest of the participants are in what you put in the math trade. You get that same info at the end of the math trade when the want lists are posted, this would just give it to you before you submit your want lists so that you can judge how restrictive you want to be with your trade list.


I agree. This would give someone a chance to add a sweetener to make their stuff look more attractive before it's too late. (Alternatively, it might get you ready for disappointment when you find out no one wants your water-damaged copy of NASCAR Monopoly.)
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Joe Wyka
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dcorban wrote:
This brings up a related topic that may be affected by this thumbing method.

I don't know about everyone else, but when I am selecting between several identical games (I don't want to risk getting multiple copies), I actually choose the one I think will be least wanted. For example, if someone is offering a particular game sealed and someone else has the same game but used, I will select the used one. I do this because I believe the open one will be on less want lists, increasing my chance of getting the game, and also increasing the chance the game actually trades, which increases trades for everyone.

While I think the thumbing method would theoretically improve trading for everyone, I don't believe enough people will do it to make it effective.


But Dan, why wouldn't you just list both games, as there are no restrictions?
 
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Rik Van Horn
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mattwran wrote:
Rokkr wrote:
mattwran wrote:
Interesting idea, but I think it's dependent on people acting against their own self-interest. If I really want a game, shouldn't I avoid thumbing it in the hopes that the owner will think the game is unpopular and expand his want list? I don't want to sound cynical and suggest that everyone would game the system like this, but this is a site of gamers after all.

I can only see that as a possible instance for low end items. Big ticket items are going to have limited want lists whether a lot or a little interest is expressed.
Plus I seriously doubt the majority of traders will actually be that sly about the trade.


I don't think it's really a question of being sly. The question is - what is the motivation for going through the lists and thumbing everything you're interested in? You give other people valuable info, but are actively hurting your own chances of trading for any of those items. Systems that depend on people acting altruisticly tend to have low rates of participation (for example - the number of people who watch/listen to public radio and television versus those who donate to the stations).

I fail to see why my open interest could possibly influence how the math trade generator decides if I get a game or not.
I seriously doubt some people adding or subtracting the game from their want lists because X number of people showed interest would have any effect on the ultimate trades.
It just sounds a bit delusional to me.
 
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At this point, everything about the thumbing method is simply speculation. The only way you are going to be able to determine if it has any influence on the outcome of the trades or creation of trade lists is to run a math trade with this is an entry requirement. The way I see it...the people who like it will join, and those who don't won't. I am a believer in the scientific method. We have some control data; now let's apply some variables.

Of course, it is easy to suggest this because I have never run a math trade.
 
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The Dude
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Oh yeah...Tatsu, it is good to hear that your are still innovating and that the frigid Nebraska winter didn't totally freeze your brain.

Then again, you could be here in AZ and already having the sun fry it. devil

 
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Mattwran
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Rokkr wrote:
mattwran wrote:
Rokkr wrote:
mattwran wrote:
Interesting idea, but I think it's dependent on people acting against their own self-interest. If I really want a game, shouldn't I avoid thumbing it in the hopes that the owner will think the game is unpopular and expand his want list? I don't want to sound cynical and suggest that everyone would game the system like this, but this is a site of gamers after all.

I can only see that as a possible instance for low end items. Big ticket items are going to have limited want lists whether a lot or a little interest is expressed.
Plus I seriously doubt the majority of traders will actually be that sly about the trade.


I don't think it's really a question of being sly. The question is - what is the motivation for going through the lists and thumbing everything you're interested in? You give other people valuable info, but are actively hurting your own chances of trading for any of those items. Systems that depend on people acting altruisticly tend to have low rates of participation (for example - the number of people who watch/listen to public radio and television versus those who donate to the stations).

I fail to see why my open interest could possibly influence how the math trade generator decides if I get a game or not.
I seriously doubt some people adding or subtracting the game from their want lists because X number of people showed interest would have any effect on the ultimate trades.
It just sounds a bit delusional to me.


The stated purpose of thumbing according to the OP is so that people can either increase or decrease the length of their want lists based on the popularity of their game. Those with lower numbers of thumbs will, theoretically, increase the length of their want lists, while those with high numbers of thumbs will, theoretically, shorten their lists and take shots at more popular games. I don't want the games I'm interested in to have short want lists so there is an incentive not to thumb. If as you say people won't be adding or subtracting from their want lists based on the thumbs then the whole procedure is pointless to begin with as that was the original intent of the system.
 
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Jason Maxwell
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mattwran wrote:
Rokkr wrote:
mattwran wrote:
Rokkr wrote:
mattwran wrote:
Interesting idea, but I think it's dependent on people acting against their own self-interest. If I really want a game, shouldn't I avoid thumbing it in the hopes that the owner will think the game is unpopular and expand his want list? I don't want to sound cynical and suggest that everyone would game the system like this, but this is a site of gamers after all.

I can only see that as a possible instance for low end items. Big ticket items are going to have limited want lists whether a lot or a little interest is expressed.
Plus I seriously doubt the majority of traders will actually be that sly about the trade.


I don't think it's really a question of being sly. The question is - what is the motivation for going through the lists and thumbing everything you're interested in? You give other people valuable info, but are actively hurting your own chances of trading for any of those items. Systems that depend on people acting altruisticly tend to have low rates of participation (for example - the number of people who watch/listen to public radio and television versus those who donate to the stations).

I fail to see why my open interest could possibly influence how the math trade generator decides if I get a game or not.
I seriously doubt some people adding or subtracting the game from their want lists because X number of people showed interest would have any effect on the ultimate trades.
It just sounds a bit delusional to me.


The stated purpose of thumbing according to the OP is so that people can either increase or decrease the length of their want lists based on the popularity of their game. Those with lower numbers of thumbs will, theoretically, increase the length of their want lists, while those with high numbers of thumbs will, theoretically, shorten their lists and take shots at more popular games. I don't want the games I'm interested in to have short want lists so there is an incentive not to thumb. If as you say people won't be adding or subtracting from their want lists based on the thumbs then the whole procedure is pointless to begin with as that was the original intent of the system.


Matt's logic is correct as I (well Tatsu) intended it. I don't know how much of an influence that it will actually have, as dj said, the only way to find out is to run a math trade using this setup.
 
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A problem that I see is that if an item has no thumbs, one might assume that no one wants it, then that person does not go through the effort to submit a want list. But someone might have put the game on their want list and it might have been traded.

I'm afraid that some might think that it's not worth the effort, if no thumbs have been posted. Or that person might try to trade early, if one that thumbed it up has something that is interresting.
 
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I think its an interesting idea, but the information you get from the thumbs up might be pointless.

If I put up Battlelore for trade and I get 50 thumbs up, does that tell me anything? It could just be 50 people with some Tanga Trash for trade, and it won't have any effect on my want list. Of course I could spend the time to actually see who gave me the thumbs up (can you do this?), and then try to work a side trade and submit an empty trade list, which would be bad for the math trade.

The reason I think it would be interesting is that if people actually used the system properly, you could see which games are popular trade items. Sometimes I see a bunch of copies of something for trade and wonder does anyone ever trade these items? But other than that, I'm not sure there is much value to it.

I haven't looked back at past math trades I've been in, but it seems the information you would want to know is, who (i.e. what games) put your game on their trade list. That would tell you how popular your game is/was and what other people valued it at. Doesn't help you for that Math Trade, but would help you on the next to adjust your trade list accordingly. In fact if someone kept a database with a nice interface of all past trades (and past want lists) you could just look up your game you are thinking of trading and see what other people got for it (or tried to get for it). For all I know there could be a way to do some of this on BGG).





 
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Jeff Bakalchuck
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dcorban wrote:


While I think the thumbing method would theoretically improve trading for everyone, I don't believe enough people will do it to make it effective.


Dan brings up an excellent issue. Would there be a large enough sample?

I really like the idea of getting pre-trade feedback, but I'm not sure if this method would work. Of course it would be a good way to inflate people's thumb count

What percentage of the traders would actually use this? Would it be a representative sample?

Furthermore, would people actually follow through and list the items they have thumbed? I'm sure many people change their mind on their want list items as the time goes on.

How do you prevent non-traders from thumbing items?

And remember not all thumbs would be equal. Some people list 1 or 2 times, others might list 20. Would a thumb from a user with 20 items means they plan on putting it on all 20 want list or just 1?

 
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Ok, so the reason I suggested this to JasonRMax in the first place was I was trying to get an idea of whether or not he thought it might work.

In general, I think someone putting up Roads and Boats, Chinatown, Epic Duels, etc know pretty well in advance that their game is going to show up on every want list. Similarly, someone throwing Battlelore on is going to know their game is going to be wanted.

This is actually more informative for those people putting up a game that isn't already on the list 10 times (Roborally, Oasis, I'm the Boss, etc) - like Vinci. There is a niche market for Vinci - yes, its OOP, but its not at the top of everyone's lists either. Or is it? After participating in a number of trades in the last 6 months, I have some junk (by junk, I mean B&N or Tanga) that I'd trade, but the mid-worth games are harder to gauge as far as desirability in any particular math trade. So lets say I have Vinci in the Math Trade de Jour. If the thumbs up system is in effect and there are 350 games in the trade, but I get 3 thumbs up - I have two choices. List wants in accordance to what I feel the worth of the game is, OR I can re-evaluate and decide I'd rather settle for a lesser game to get rid of a game I don't really care for.
 
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Rik Van Horn
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Boomer wrote:
How do you prevent non-traders from thumbing items?

You can't. You can, however figure out who is and who's not in the trade since each thumb will show who gave it. It may take a little work, but you can tell if a thumb was given by someone not trading.
 
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A couple of thoughts....

* folks like myself using the OLWLG will never see the thumb count on the geeklist items (and the thumb info can't be fetched/displayed by the OLWLG as it's not available via the BGG XML API)

* simliar data is already available for MT's supported by the OLWLG in the form of the "statistics" page for a MT... for each unique main item in a math trade it not only shows how many copies of that item are in that math trade, but also how many users in that math trade have that item on their want and/or wish lists. Of course items with significant sweeteners in the thumb system would be more accurate as in theory those items would attract more info.

For what it's worth, I did run a "Nothing up my Sleeve Math Trade" where lots of data was available, in hindsight probably too much

One thing I could add to the OLWLG that I could allow the MT organizers to turn on if they wish could be to allow users to see for each item (either their own or all items) the number of users in the math trade who have "added" that item to their interest list ("adding" doesn't mean it's actually on any of their want lists).
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