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Champions of Midgard» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Chances of success rss

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Philip Kitching
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The chances of success on a single die have been commented on elsewhere, so I thought that I'd write a program to simulate sending 1-8 warriors of each type against each monster type.

What I wanted to know was the "ideal" number to send against a monster because in my first play I think that we were too safe and waited too long to attack multiple monsters per round.

Also I was interested if you could send too many warriors against a monster with lots of attacks and little defence (eg the third axeman versus a monster with 1 wound and 3 attacks doesn't improve your success much but does increase the number of axemen lost.)

The program repeated each combination 100,000 times (because I couldn't be bothered to write something to give the exact probabilities) and reports the percentage chance of success and the average number of survivors.

A couple of notes:
I didn't consider mixed forces.
I didn't consider rerolls.
If there are warriors remaining after the first round of combat and the monster is undefeated, the warriors will keep attacking until victory and/or death.
A single warrior (apart from a shieldmaiden) cannot possibly defeat a monster with 3 wounds, so should retreat. I didn't bother with this, so the losses are a bit higher against these monsters.
In case a group did shield block for 10 rounds without defeating their target, I stopped the fight. I doubt this happend often enough to have affected the numbers.
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Axe
==========
| Number of | 1 Attack | 2 Attacks | 3 Attacks |
| Warriors | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds |
| 1 | 67% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 | 67% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 | 67% 0.0 | 34% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 |
| 2 | 96% 0.9 | 85% 0.7 | 63% 0.3 | 89% 0.0 | 66% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 89% 0.0 | 67% 0.0 | 34% 0.0 |
| 3 | 100% 2.0 | 99% 1.8 | 96% 1.5 | 99% 1.0 | 94% 0.9 | 82% 0.6 | 96% 0.0 | 85% 0.0 | 63% 0.0 |
| 4 | 100% 3.0 | 100% 2.9 | 100% 2.8 | 100% 2.0 | 99% 1.9 | 96% 1.6 | 100% 1.0 | 98% 0.9 | 91% 0.8 |
| 5 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 3.9 | 100% 3.0 | 100% 2.9 | 100% 2.8 | 100% 2.0 | 100% 2.0 | 98% 1.8 |
| 6 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 3.9 | 100% 3.0 | 100% 3.0 | 100% 2.9 |
| 7 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 3.9 |
| 8 | 100% 7.0 | 100% 7.0 | 100% 7.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 |
success% average number of survivors
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Spear
==========
| Number of | 1 Attack | 2 Attacks | 3 Attacks |
| Warriors | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds |
| 1 | 60% 0.0 | 20% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 | 50% 0.0 | 17% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 | 50% 0.0 | 17% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 |
| 2 | 95% 1.1 | 79% 0.7 | 53% 0.3 | 83% 0.2 | 51% 0.1 | 19% 0.0 | 76% 0.0 | 42% 0.0 | 14% 0.0 |
| 3 | 100% 2.3 | 98% 2.1 | 94% 1.7 | 97% 1.3 | 86% 0.9 | 65% 0.5 | 93% 0.4 | 73% 0.2 | 44% 0.1 |
| 4 | 100% 3.5 | 100% 3.4 | 100% 3.2 | 100% 2.5 | 98% 2.2 | 92% 1.7 | 99% 1.5 | 93% 1.2 | 78% 0.8 |
| 5 | 100% 4.6 | 100% 4.5 | 100% 4.4 | 100% 3.8 | 100% 3.6 | 99% 3.3 | 100% 2.8 | 99% 2.5 | 94% 2.0 |
| 6 | 100% 5.7 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 4.9 | 100% 4.8 | 100% 4.7 | 100% 4.0 | 100% 3.8 | 99% 3.5 |
| 7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 5.9 | 100% 5.1 | 100% 5.1 | 100% 4.9 |
| 8 | 100% 7.8 | 100% 7.8 | 100% 7.7 | 100% 7.2 | 100% 7.1 | 100% 7.1 | 100% 6.3 | 100% 6.2 | 100% 6.1 |
==========
Sword
==========
| Number of | 1 Attack | 2 Attacks | 3 Attacks |
| Warriors | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds |
| 1 | 40% 0.0 | 20% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 16% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 17% 0.0 | 0% 0.0 |
| 2 | 81% 0.8 | 62% 0.5 | 34% 0.2 | 63% 0.1 | 39% 0.1 | 11% 0.0 | 57% 0.0 | 34% 0.0 | 8% 0.0 |
| 3 | 97% 2.1 | 91% 1.8 | 79% 1.3 | 86% 1.0 | 69% 0.7 | 43% 0.3 | 77% 0.3 | 56% 0.2 | 27% 0.0 |
| 4 | 100% 3.4 | 99% 3.2 | 97% 2.9 | 96% 2.3 | 89% 1.8 | 74% 1.2 | 91% 1.3 | 77% 1.0 | 55% 0.5 |
| 5 | 100% 4.5 | 100% 4.4 | 100% 4.2 | 99% 3.6 | 97% 3.2 | 92% 2.7 | 97% 2.5 | 91% 2.1 | 77% 1.4 |
| 6 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 5.5 | 100% 4.8 | 100% 4.6 | 99% 4.2 | 99% 3.8 | 97% 3.4 | 92% 2.8 |
| 7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.6 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 5.9 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 5.0 | 99% 4.8 | 98% 4.2 |
| 8 | 100% 7.8 | 100% 7.7 | 100% 7.7 | 100% 7.1 | 100% 7.0 | 100% 6.9 | 100% 6.2 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 5.7 |
==========
Swordmaiden
==========
| Number of | 1 Attack | 2 Attacks | 3 Attacks |
| Warriors | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds | 1 Wound | 2 Wounds | 3 Wounds |
| 1 | 40% 0.0 | 40% 0.0 | 20% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 17% 0.0 | 33% 0.0 | 34% 0.0 | 17% 0.0 |
| 2 | 81% 0.8 | 81% 0.8 | 62% 0.5 | 63% 0.1 | 63% 0.1 | 39% 0.1 | 56% 0.0 | 57% 0.0 | 34% 0.0 |
| 3 | 97% 2.1 | 97% 2.1 | 91% 1.8 | 86% 1.0 | 86% 1.0 | 69% 0.7 | 77% 0.3 | 77% 0.3 | 55% 0.2 |
| 4 | 100% 3.4 | 100% 3.4 | 99% 3.2 | 96% 2.3 | 96% 2.3 | 89% 1.9 | 91% 1.3 | 91% 1.3 | 77% 1.0 |
| 5 | 100% 4.5 | 100% 4.5 | 100% 4.4 | 99% 3.6 | 99% 3.6 | 97% 3.2 | 97% 2.5 | 97% 2.5 | 91% 2.1 |
| 6 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 5.6 | 100% 4.8 | 100% 4.8 | 100% 4.6 | 99% 3.8 | 99% 3.8 | 97% 3.4 |
| 7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.7 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 6.0 | 100% 5.9 | 100% 5.0 | 100% 5.0 | 99% 4.7 |
| 8 | 100% 7.8 | 100% 7.8 | 100% 7.7 | 100% 7.1 | 100% 7.1 | 100% 7.0 | 100% 6.2 | 100% 6.2 | 100% 6.0 |

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David Bancroft
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Elk Grove
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Durp
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My brain hurts
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Jooice ZP
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Wow, def worth deeper look, but perhaps the best thing about you psoting this so that I can tell you that you may never retreat your remaining troops

They are vikings, win or die (or win and die)
 
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