Steven Woodcock
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I don't think this is the case in Colorado Springs, but I see an AWFUL lot of eateries out there in other cities:

https://www.thrillist.com/eat/nation/american-restaurant-ind...

Maybe not. Interesting article either way.



Ferret
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J.D. Hall
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Operating a restaurant is one of the toughest business propositions in America. The old adage of "one in three new businesses survive the first five years" doesn't apply to restaurants -- it's more like one in six. There's so many variables -- weather, food prices, utilities, health inspections, rent/mortgage, insurance. And keeping a restaurant staffed is inordinately difficult regardless of pay levels. It's not a career many people choose.

I know this, btw, because I managed an A&W restaurant and then was the assistant (night) manager of a diner while in college. I think it's easier to be a Navy Seal than a successful restaurant owner.

Good find, Ferret, good find.
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Sam I am
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Another bubble, to me at least, seems to be hotels. They've build four new ones in the Kalamazoo area in the last 6 years. Everywhere you go there are new ones under construction.
 
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Junior McSpiffy
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When a restaurant bubble bursts, does it get marinara everywhere?
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Steve Vondra
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The saddest part of this is that it's the small, struggling entrepreneurs that will take the brunt of this trend. The giant corporate chains will retract a bit, maybe close or sell off one of their brands, but still survive. It's the innovators and independent operators who don't have the financial reserves to weather a bubble.
 
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Junior McSpiffy
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What do we think this will do to food trucks? Do they seem insulated from this trend or will it hit them as well? Seems like they are working on enough of a different model that they should be able to weather it well, but that's from just a casual glance.
 
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Chad Ellis
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As a finance nerd I'm annoyed by the use of the term bubble, but hey.

A lot of people dream of opening a restaurant. The barriers aren't all that low but they're low enough that people can do it. The financial model looks attractive (mostly because it's done poorly and doesn't include a lot of wasted food and hidden costs, and is too rosy on revenue), and natural human bias makes people think they'll be successful.

But a bubble? No. There's been growth in restaurants, driven by increased demand, and we may well have oversupply and a shortage of good labor. That will no doubt force many out of business. But does anyone think that in a year or five years we'll have fewer restaurants than we had five years ago?

Seems like much more of a pendulum swing than a bubble.
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Chris Binkowski
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I've been wanting to eat out less these days.
 
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Andy Beaton
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I'm doing what I can to help. I try to support the local restaurants serving interesting food wherever possible.
 
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
As a finance nerd I'm annoyed by the use of the term bubble, but hey.

A lot of people dream of opening a restaurant. The barriers aren't all that low but they're low enough that people can do it. The financial model looks attractive (mostly because it's done poorly and doesn't include a lot of wasted food and hidden costs, and is too rosy on revenue), and natural human bias makes people think they'll be successful.

But a bubble? No. There's been growth in restaurants, driven by increased demand, and we may well have oversupply and a shortage of good labor. That will no doubt force many out of business. But does anyone think that in a year or five years we'll have fewer restaurants than we had five years ago?

Seems like much more of a pendulum swing than a bubble.


Yep. The article is "Breathless 1st World Problem" journalism. Unless you're one of those people who you profess to hate -- corporate boss, smug white affluent 30-something, Wall Street thug, etc. -- you have never even heard of 80% or more of those places, except maybe if they are local. Those so-called high-end foodie places are probably closer to being a thing of the past than the good old local cafe or authentic Mexican or award-winning pizzeria.

Having successfully started and owned a decent downtown restaurant for 5 years I tend to agree with Chad that it's the hidden costs that can be surprising and fatal if you start with not enough reserve. I automatically started my staff at a buck or two above the going rate in California because I didn't want the hidden cost of constant retraining to keep biting me in the ass. But it's all a balancing act for sure and that was just one measure that took a bit of guts initially but ended up being a major cost saver over time. How much is staff loyalty worth?

I don't lament a single one of those places closing down, not a one. They aren't the sign of anything ending except another point of excess and self-congratulatory preening by the privileged class RSP seems to dislike. 95% of our meals are cooked by me but I happen to be an excellent cook so that makes perfect sense. When we do eat out it's usually the choice of my 14 year old where and trust me, he's more interested in Red Robin or IHOP (crepes loaded with fruit and whipped cream!) than anything. I'm pretty sure there will always be plenty of eateries that serve every imaginable price point and that the only bubble that exists is in the mind of the writer of that article and the customers of restaurants where spending $200 or so for a casual dinner is how they demonstrate their uniqueness. Good for them I say, good for them.

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Resturants are like nightclubs they are expensive to start up and operate and they have a shelf life.

For clubs thats 7 years if you want to make a profit you sell it in year 5.
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As I've posted before, there are about 30 locally owned restaurants in a 1 km (.6 miles) stretch within walking distance of my home or office. I live at one end of the row and my office is at the other end. Good ones. too. No fast food joints with drive through windows. Most serve alcohol.

Some have been here for years and years and others come and go. The proprietor of one joined a coworker and I for lunch one day and I asked, "What would be good for the restaurant scene in Louisville?" And he replied, "A long hard recession."
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Mike Stiles
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GameCrossing wrote:
What do we think this will do to food trucks? Do they seem insulated from this trend or will it hit them as well? Seems like they are working on enough of a different model that they should be able to weather it well, but that's from just a casual glance.


This is an interesting question to me; Food trucks are different, it seems like a lot of the things the article talks about wouldn't impact them too much (lack of cooking staff for instance, also overhead is lower)
 
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Steven Woodcock
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Thank you sir.


Ferret
 
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Adam Alleman
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Ferretman wrote:
I don't think this is the case in Colorado Springs, but I see an AWFUL lot of eateries out there in other cities:

https://www.thrillist.com/eat/nation/american-restaurant-ind...

Maybe not. Interesting article either way.



Ferret


The Springs restaurants suck the big donkey dick. No wonder you're so fucked up.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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I cook in a lot. People like my cooking.

Restaurants are "meh" and have gone up a lot over the last 5 years (mocking the claim that inflation is at 2%).

I go to really nice restaurants about once a quarter. You can easily walk out with over a $120 per person bill. It's NOTICEABLE how much "cheaper" they have gotten. Smaller portions, fewer servers, etc.

I look at the food value and I think, "we could make this meal for $32 dollars and they want $120. This is insane." For the first time ever, we cut out our new year's outing this year and will be trading it for 6 times at "modest" restaurants (organic rainbow trout- $20 per meal type places).


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Can I hijack this thread and make it about diners and the various levels of service I receive there?
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Brian S.
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I think many people these days open restaurants for social capital. Spend some money, hire a big name chef, and hang around the place. Maybe there isn't a restaurant bubble, but for the last decade I keep expecting the bottom to drop out and have a bunch go belly up. Hasn't happened, but recently some looong timers have closed their doors. As one restaurateur suggested, everyone is interested in the newest hooker in the brothel.
 
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Steven Woodcock
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Daddys_Home wrote:
Ferretman wrote:
I don't think this is the case in Colorado Springs, but I see an AWFUL lot of eateries out there in other cities:

https://www.thrillist.com/eat/nation/american-restaurant-ind...

Maybe not. Interesting article either way.



Ferret


The Springs restaurants suck the big donkey dick. No wonder you're so fucked up.


Remarkable how you insult AND belittle.....I assume it's a learned talent? Nobody could be that hopeless and clueless straight out, surely?

Thank you for your....lack....of contribution to the conversation.


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Restaurants have one big thing in common with game stores. Both tend to be opened by people who think running a store is easy, not like work at all! Both are dead wrong. Tripp hits a lot of it on the head. People don't plan, they don't research. They paradoxically don't borrow *enough* You need to borrow startup plus at least one entire year's operating costs, and if you can't then stop right there. They treat labor as interchangeable which is a big fucking disaster especially in food.

Bad staff makes bad food, customers leave, customers get sick, customers sue. Your head cook funnels 100lbs of prime rib out the back door into his own side catering business. They don't care for equipment which breaks, and is expensive(hopefully you didn't buy new you fool. With so many resturants turning over you should be buying foreclosure gear for peanuts) and even if you know and are prepared for all of it, it's just a lot of headache. You'd best be ready to commit to it first.

Back on topic:I think the rise of eateries goes hand in hand with how life's changed. Less time at home, everyone working, working less 'normal' hours, parents who don't cook raising kids you don't know what home cooking is. Time spent online, plugged in, and on the go demands fast response food.
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MGK
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We eat out about once every other week. The restaurant scene here in Toronto is pretty good. You have the bistros and steakhouses that have been around for decades, who have practically zero staff turnover because they pay their staff well because good servers and cooks are worth keeping, and generally have lifetime leases or outright own their properties which cancel out rental increase issues. Those places mostly tend to be expensive (a good meal with a glass of wine - $80-100), although there are a few that are cheaper - my favorite bistro here, you can have an excellent meal for $30-40 with tip.

Then there are the indie fast-casual places. They tend to be more expensive than comparable restaurants in other cities ($20-30 for a meal and a beer) and they run skeleton crews, and the rental increase issue is always a problem, but the operators know this; the model is "open two or three successful restaurants, build up capital to buy a property, and then shrink down to one restaurant." I've seen it happen half a dozen times now.

Property is the key to operating a restaurant successfully. Ray Kroc knew it and the smart operators know it now. You either implement a very long-term lease or you buy.
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Adrian Hague
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maxo-texas wrote:
I look at the food value and I think, "we could make this meal for $32 dollars and they want $120. This is insane."


In the UK that's about par-for-the-course. General rule-of-thumb is that you multiply the base cost of the ingredients by 4 to generate the meal price. This covers staff, heating, lighting, and all the other little bits-n-bobs about which I have no idea because I've never run a restaurant.
 
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intalec-chals missing the point?
Is the OP rilly about anethin uther then the pedofile rings being run out of pitza shops and kebab shops and sadil bars all around the cuntry?

We got Fretman, defender of fake news and alt-right media affishy-onado, pizzagateing the hole industry?
 
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Steven Woodcock
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AdrianPHague wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
I look at the food value and I think, "we could make this meal for $32 dollars and they want $120. This is insane."


In the UK that's about par-for-the-course. General rule-of-thumb is that you multiply the base cost of the ingredients by 4 to generate the meal price. This covers staff, heating, lighting, and all the other little bits-n-bobs about which I have no idea because I've never run a restaurant.


I'm very rarely in a "name" restaurant anymore--fast food or maybe one of those 'deluxe burger' places are more likely. Or I stop by the BBQ place to pick up a pound of brisket and nuke that together with various sides to make meal.

But I really do like Panera's rye bread....just consumed my last couple of slices today. Probably have to get another loaf in the nearer-rather-than-farther future.....



Ferret
 
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Steven Woodcock
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Pinook wrote:
Is the OP rilly about anethin uther then the pedofile rings being run out of pitza shops and kebab shops and sadil bars all around the cuntry?

We got Fretman, defender of fake news and alt-right media affishy-onado, pizzagateing the hole industry?


What the heck are you on about? Did you take your meds today?




Ferret
 
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