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Subject: Prognosticating the 2017 WBC Trial Vote rss

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Andrew Drummond
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I don't take any of these suggestions Chris as anything but suggestions. I'm sure we'll all be happy and excited with whatever system you have planned.
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Sean McCulloch
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Marty S wrote:
Chris, have you thought about how you'd handle bidding for sides in SW:Rebellion ? One thought I had while talking with some folks was Probe Card draws. If you want to play the Rebels, bid X, where that is how many Probe Cards the Empire draws after the set up. If you want to play the Empire, a bid of X means you draw that many less til you "catch up" . So if you bid 1, in the Probe Card draw phase of the first turn you only get 1 card , not two. If play Mission cards that give draws in the first turn or two, you'd still get those right away.

Some had suggested clicks on the track, but I think Probe cards offer more granularity.


I think this is basically what's happening
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Frank McNally
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I don't have numbers handy but Republic Of Rome is usually only a few down from cut-off for trial range based on votes for past couple years.

do you have link for past votes?
 
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Andrew Drummond
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FrankM wrote:
I don't have numbers handy but Republic Of Rome is usually only a few down from cut-off for trial range based on votes for past couple years.

do you have link for past votes?


http://boardgamers.org/history_trialballotresults.html

It looks like it's been 10-15 votes (or 5-8 people) short each year.

 
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Chris Kizer

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Yep, I was planning to use the exact system you wrote here, Marty.

While hit points of units would make more sense from a wargame perspective, the initial allocation of units for rebels vs empire is already so different that I don't think anyone would ever bid to play rebels. Probe cards makes for more interesting decision making.
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Daniel Blumentritt
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Quote:
Never said new players were't welcomed/desired. But I've taught this to several new players who all managed to finish games in a more timely fashion than 5 hours.


But did they finish more timely than 3 hr 45 min? Remember 4 hour rounds doesn't mean 4 hour games as you can't transition instantaneously from one round to the next.

Quote:
STOCKCAR CHAMPIONSHIP RACING only missed last year from a lack of GM and has a following so I expect it is fine,


Good to see that one is back...


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John Corrado

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hgman3 wrote:
As I recall, Castles didn't achieve a top 25 in the Trial vote, but was selected as an alternate. That's why I didn't cite it as an example.


Your recollection is correct - it didn't make the initial cut, but was sponsored in.

It's one of the weird things with the timing: Castles came out in fall of 2014, but didn't get a lot of attention and play until spring/summer of 2015, so there wasn't a lot of interest in the submission, but we had a full room when the first heat rolled around.

That's also why I think sometimes it takes a try or two for games to get in: they often get released for Essen/Christmas, get enough initial buzz to get on the ballot, but most gaming groups don't get familiar with them until later in the year after voting is done, so they miss out on their first opportunity. So any GM who does get a game into the submission this year is well advised to try again next year.

Of course, I submitted Dungeon Lords two years running and it didn't make it in either of those, so what do I know?

Edit: Wow, looking back through the history link provided above, every game I've ever submitted for the Trial Ballot has placed between 26 - 35, so definitely don't take anything I say about trends or ability to make it in as worthwhile.
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Andrew Drummond
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ardrummo wrote:
Here's another kick at the can for guessing what games are going to make it through the Trial vote in 2017 to become tournaments at WBC this summer.
Last year I got 17 out of 25, and in an effort to improve that, I have done a deeper look at categorizing the games and doing as much analysis as I can on the past 3 votes.

Caveats:
- I have only done this by looking at the votes from 2014-2016. If there are relevant trends before that I will miss them
- My assigning of games to a category is fairly arbitrary. I have tried to do my best, but some games are difficult. As examples, Battle Line is a war game in my analysis, but I'm not sure it follows the normal war game vote patterns. Also I have included train games with the Euros, but racing games in with "other". It's hard to do this perfectly.

I took each game that was in any of the past 3 votes and looked up when it was released and what it's current BGG rating is. I also gave it a category (Euro/War/Party/Other) and a reason for being in the vote (Fell from Century/New Game/Previous Trial). From looking at the past 3 years, I got percentages of what games in each subcategory have gotten through and then applied them to this years ballot. Here's my best guess:

Euros:

Looking at the percentages, only 19% of new Euro games have been successful and those that are tend to be the newest and highest in the BGG rankings. That leads to only 2 new Euros this year and I figure they will be SCYTHE and TERRAFORMING MARS based on their release and popularity. There are only 3 Euros that fell out of the century in 2016, and of those I believe that only 1 is coming back, which should be TZOLKIN (which also dominated the voting last time it was there). I could be misreading enthusiasm for Dominant Species though. Of the 13 Euros that were trials last year, my percentages have 6 returning. 5 I think are solid. MEDICI, UNION PACIFIC, YSPAHAN, RACE FOR THE GALAXY, and ROLL FOR THE GALAXY seem to have strong followings and have done well in the past votes. The sixth spot is harder, but I think it will go to INNOVATION rather than Leaping Lemmings, though I imagine it will be close. The others all failed in the 2016 vote and I doubt they have strong new followings that will get them past the established games (despite the Canucks efforts for Galaxy Trucker)

Predicted list:
SCYTHE, TERRAFORMING MARS, TZOLKIN, MEDICI, UNION PACIFIC, YSPAHAN, RACE FOR THE GALAXY, ROLL FOR THE GALAXY, INNOVATION.
Just missing the cut:
Dominant Species, Leaping Lemmings

War Games:

In the past 3 years, no new War Games have been voted in. While my formula shouldn't allow for any this year either, there has not been a top 10 BGG wargame in the vote (with category ambiguity to boot). So I am picking STAR WARS REBELLION to be a new "war" game for 2017. Unlike the Euros, the vote tends to favour the wargames from the century and so I expect 4 of the 7 to return. Those are likely 1989, BITTER WOODS, FIRE IN THE LAKE, and WOODEN SHIPS AND IRON MEN. That said, I have little to go on for these games with little voting history so if Conquest of Paradise got through, I wouldn't be shocked. Wargames conversely do very poorly in the votes as recurring trials and the ones that succeed tend to be less serious games. Of the 13 on the ballot, I only see 4 getting through and of those, ACE OF ACES and AGE OF RENAISSANCE seem like the best choices. For the other two spots I'd guess at NAVAL WAR and MANOEUVRE though Commands and Colors wouldn't surprise me too much either. Great Campaigns of the ACW seems to be losing support year over year and I'd expect it to miss this time and the remainder all failed at last year's vote.
Predicted list:
STAR WARS REBELLION, 1989, BITTER WOODS, FIRE IN THE LAKE, WOODEN SHIPS AND IRON MEN, ACE OF ACES , AGE OF RENAISSANCE , NAVAL WAR , MANOEUVRE .
Just missing the cut:
Conquest of Paradise, Commands and Colors

Party Games:

Defining a "party" game as anything that I could see being played at 11pm, they have had remarkable success in the votes of the past 3 years at 75%. A lot of that is a small sample size dominated by three perpetual trial recurrences that I expect to continue this year in TRANSAMERICA, ELCHFEST, and PRO GOLF. Beyond those, new party games get in at a 50% rate so I'm going to call LOVE LETTER as more likely than Colt Express. Only once in the past 3 years has an 11pm game fallen out of hte century and it was returned, so I'll also call for KING OF TOKYO to be returned as well. That leaves Las Vegas on the outside looking in, but with a dismal showing in last year's vote I don't expect it can make it.

Predicted List:
TRANSAMERICA, ELCHFEST, PRO GOLF, LOVE LETTER, KING OF TOKYO

Other Games:

Some games are just hard to fit in a category. Racing games, thematic games, etc. These six I can't seem to fit into the other spaces. STOCKCAR CHAMPIONSHIP RACING only missed last year from a lack of GM and has a following so I expect it is fine, and TITAN: TWO is unique but just fell out of hte century and likely has a following. For the others, Metacheckers drew few for its tournament, Mage Wars and Paydirt did badly in last year's vote, and Moto Grand Prix is both older and badly rated. I don't think any of those get through.

Predicted List:
STOCKCAR CHAMPIONSHIP RACING, TITAN: TWO

I hope people see this as a fun exercise and I look forward to any comments telling me how I screwed this up :-)



So, not too bad I think. Got 18/25 which is +1 from last year. Though a ton of new games got in so I was not prepared for that.

Votes still split fairly evenly between the Euros (10) and War Games (9). A few had more support than I thought (Princes of Florence, Panzerblitz) and a few I thought had more fans (Tzolkin, Yspahan).

Euros (7/9)

Correct: SCYTHE, TERRAFORMING MARS, MEDICI, UNION PACIFIC, RACE FOR THE GALAXY, ROLL FOR THE GALAXY, INNOVATION
Incorrect: Yspahan, Tzolkin
Missed: Orleans, Terra Mystica, Princes of Florence

War Games (6/9)

Correct: STAR WARS REBELLION, BITTER WOODS, FIRE IN THE LAKE, WOODEN SHIPS AND IRON MEN, ACE OF ACES , NAVAL WAR
Incorrect: 1989, Manoeuvre, Age of Renaissance
Missed: Commands and Colours, Panzerblitz, Enemy in Sight

Party Games (5/5)
Correct: TRANSAMERICA, ELCHFEST, PRO GOLF, LOVE LETTER, KING OF TOKYO
Incorrect: None
Missed: Las Vegas

Other Games (0/2)
Correct: None
Incorrect: Stockcar Championship, Titan: Two
Missed: None


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Christopher Yaure
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Well done. I am sorry Yspahan did not make it - I guess that means Wednesday, the perpetual camel trophy, is retired.

You list COmmand and Colors as making it - I assume this is Command and Colors: Napoleonics, with C&C: Ancients already in as a Century event.
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Andrew Drummond
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actuaryesquire wrote:
Well done. I am sorry Yspahan did not make it - I guess that means Wednesday, the perpetual camel trophy, is retired.

You list COmmand and Colors as making it - I assume this is Command and Colors: Napoleonics, with C&C: Ancients already in as a Century event.


I did.

And I agree that it is a pity with Yspahan. So many new games this year though will be a lot of fun :-)
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Christopher Yaure
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ardrummo wrote:
So many new games this year though will be a lot of fun :-)


So true. I don't think I voted for Orléans - Deb and I received it for Christmas but did not play it until 2-Jan. If I were voting now, I would definitely include Orleans.
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Max Jamelli
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actuaryesquire wrote:
Well done. I am sorry Yspahan did not make it - I guess that means Wednesday, the perpetual camel trophy, is retired.


It's listed as an alternate event - so, there's still some hope for it.


couple of the sponsored events piqued my interest.

Coal Country and the Power Grid card game.
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Christopher Yaure
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Max - all events that lost in the Trial vote are listed as alternate events. I believe it is extremely rare for an alternate event to be needed.
 
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Michael Polcen
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I think about a dozen alternates got in last year although some of them may have been sponsored.
 
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Daniel Blumentritt
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Really surprised Stockcar Championship Racing finished so low. Dedicated GM, one of the best-run events out there, and large following. I guess it didn't drum up enough of the "I'm not going to play this but I have spare votes" votes, which sucks, but I'm not sure there's a good way to prevent it.
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Grant LaDue
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Squeezed by the sheer amount of choice, probably. 11 games within 21 votes of making it.

Of course, a dedicated group of players could pool their money to sponsor a particular game.
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Michael Polcen
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Statalyzer wrote:
I guess it didn't drum up enough of the "I'm not going to play this but I have spare votes" votes, which sucks, but I'm not sure there's a good way to prevent it.

Given the voting system used, the best strategy for getting the games you DO want is to withhold all your extra votes. I think I had five leftover and I wasn't going to prop up the competition for a limited number of spaces.

I did put one vote in for a friend's game but that was an exception. Being new to the event, I just don't know many of the GM's and have no incentive to vote for them. That probably changes over time - more voting from the heart.

For what it's worth, I think I voted for SCR. I like racing games.

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Kevin Youells
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We should turn this into an annual competition similar to the Team Bracket Busting contest.

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