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Terra Mystica» Forums » Organized Play

Subject: TM Tour Season 17 Games Live rss

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ETA(JamesWolfpacker): This is the largest tournament group so far of any season. (01/29/2017)
ETA(JamesWolfpacker): This season start will be delayed for a few hours later than normal per Daniel's post here. (01/31/2017)


Posted by: JamesWolfpacker
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Please Note Access to This BBG Account: Juho Snellman (jsnell, owner of terra.snellman.net), Daniel Åkerlund (bjolletz, owner of tmtour.org), CTKShadow (F&I test league admin), JamesWolfpacker (F&I test league admin), SillyWords (WTC admin).
Usage: Created for common use to allow several admins to update non-automated results of official, not yet official, or non-official Terra Mystica Posts, Tournaments and Leagues.
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 24 hours: 247 players.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
 
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Robert
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
JamesWolfpacker wrote:
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
Trend assumption 1: about 250-300 players join per day
Prediction based on this assumption: after the remaining 11 days, there will be 3000+ participants.

Trend assumption 2: the amount of players doubles every day
Prediction based on this assumption: after the remaining 11 days, there will be more than one million participants.

Take this with a grain of salt though, as I've read somewhere that prediciting a trend from just two data points is a risky business...
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Brian B.
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!


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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
After 72 hours: 676 players.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
DocCool wrote:
JamesWolfpacker wrote:
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
Trend assumption 1: about 250-300 players join per day
Prediction based on this assumption: after the remaining 11 days, there will be 3000+ participants.

Trend assumption 2: the amount of players doubles every day
Prediction based on this assumption: after the remaining 11 days, there will be more than one million participants.

Take this with a grain of salt though, as I've read somewhere that prediciting a trend from just two data points is a risky business...


There are 3 data points now...

Have at it!
 
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Robert
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
JamesWolfpacker wrote:
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
After 72 hours: 676 players.
My previous linear prediction pretty much stays, maybe with a slightly lower daily addition of "about 200 per day".

My previous exponential prediction seems pretty much broken and I sadly have to retract it. Note that one million participants would have required ca. 143,000 leagues, which would fit into 18 divisions.

The math site kindly linked by James does not offer some sort of approximation which takes into account our human psychology. Humans seemingly prefer to sign up either fast ("let's do it right away") or last-minute ("still plenty of time to do it").
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
After 72 hours: 676 players.
After 96 hours: 715 players.
After 117 hours: 765 players.
 
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Robert
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 131 hours: 804 players.
 
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Robert
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 155 hours: 843 players.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 183 hours: 891 players (Division 7 complete +2 players)
Not signed up yet
D1: Xevoc surprise
D2-D3: 10p
D4: 13p
D5: 29p
Total D1-D5: 53p
D6: 47p
Total: D1-D6: 100p
So some 2nd place promotions are theoretically still available. There could be some chances that returning players could fill the slots.
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Luke J
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
JamesWolfpacker wrote:
After 183 hours: 891 players (Division 7 complete +2 players)
Not signed up yet
D1: Xevoc surprise
D2-D3: 10p
D4: 13p
D5: 29p
Total D1-D5: 53p
D6: 47p
Total: D1-D6: 100p
So some 2nd place promotions are theoretically still available. There could be some chances that returning players could fill the slots.


17.5 points puts me right behind Otomedi in the 2nd place promotion line...
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
After 72 hours: 676 players.
After 96 hours: 715 players.
After 117 hours: 765 players.
After 131 hours: 804 players.
After 155 hours: 843 players.
After 183 hours: 891 players.
After 195 hours: 914 players.

Signup ends at 336 hours.

24 247
48 577
72 676
96 715
117 765
131 804
155 843
183 891
195 914

mycurvefit.com predicts 974 players at 336 hours
 
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Socks Wielder
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
Don't know if this is only for official talk and reserved for TMtour administration. If so sorry about that.
I've been reading posts here and I was wondering a few things.

Since there are more than 889 players there will be a div 8.
How do you determine which new players start into div 7 vs 8?
Have the suggestion of relegating 7th from div 7 to div 8 and all new players are in div 7 been applied?
Are new players randomly distributed between div 7 and 8? Is it based on registration time, so registering earlier is better? As in if I register now and am in div 8 I might not get promoted vs just registering fast next season to start in div 7.

I know slow players aren't well viewed so I wasn't sure how playing 4 games at the same time would go for me. Making 4 moves a day (1 per game) seems okay-ish but is frowned upon by some it seems? I would most likely be able to play more than a move on about 3 days of the week. Sometimes I might not be able to play for a few days?
Am I better to wait before I register a bit to be able to play faster?

Do people usually play a move in each game whenever they log on? Or are some focusing on one at a time playing the others more slowly then picking it up for the 2nd when the first is ending etc?

Seems 2 months is quite a while though! So far out of 3 3P games my longest think was 11d7h no grace.
 
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Space Trucker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
Socks Wielder wrote:
Since there are more than 889 players there will be a div 8.
How do you determine which new players start into div 7 vs 8?
Have the suggestion of relegating 7th from div 7 to div 8 and all new players are in div 7 been applied?
Are new players randomly distributed between div 7 and 8? Is it based on registration time, so registering earlier is better? As in if I register now and am in div 8 I might not get promoted vs just registering fast next season to start in div 7.

In the past slots were filled based on signup time. So yeah, signing up earlier is generally better.
But unless you really fit best to division 8 (which means very casual level) you can sign up anyway. Place 1-5 from division 8 can be promoted. It depends on the number of divisions 8 - there are 128 players from division 8 that are demoted, so many players from the few div8 can be promoted).

Socks Wielder wrote:
Do people usually play a move in each game whenever they log on?

Usually yes. But of course sometimes a move needs much thinking while another one is easy, so when I have little time I maybe only make the quick moves and do my analysis on the complex move a bit later.

Socks Wielder wrote:
So far out of 3 3P games my longest think was 11d7h no grace.

11d7h * 4 is less than 2 months, so this would be okay. Beware that 4 player games ususally are a bit slower than 3 player games (less time where all active players are online) and tournament is always players from all time zones (so if you did Americas-only games so far, your tournament games would be slower).

I'd say: Just join and enjoy your games!
(the fact that you actually wonder about how to be a nice player in the tournament quite surely means that you'll hardly be the kind of player that is frown upon)


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Robert
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
SpaceTrucker wrote:
Socks Wielder wrote:
Do people usually play a move in each game whenever they log on?

Usually yes. But of course sometimes a move needs much thinking while another one is easy, so when I have little time I maybe only make the quick moves and do my analysis on the complex move a bit later.
The idea is that you log on at least twice a day (more often is better ) and make whatever moves are due. Please do not wait to make your moves until all your games require a move from you.
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
You can also make moves on your smartphone as the snellman website works pretty well in mobile formats. Given that D8 is already a reality for the next season, any new players until Feb 1 will certainly be added. A good 30+ brand new players manage to enter D7 each season when they sign up extra early so I think most of D8 gets promoted anyway.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 24 hours: 247 players.
After 48 hours: 577 players.
After 72 hours: 676 players.
After 96 hours: 715 players.
After 117 hours: 765 players.
After 131 hours: 804 players.
After 155 hours: 843 players.
After 183 hours: 891 players.
After 195 hours: 914 players.
After 217 hours: 949 players. (9 days + 1 hour)

Signup ends at 336 hours.

24 247
48 577
72 676
96 715
117 765
131 804
155 843
183 891
195 914
217 949

mycurvefit.com predicts 998 players at 336 hours, up from 974.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
This could be the largest tournament ever.

After 236 hours: 973 players.

Signup ends at 336 hours.
24 247
48 577
72 676
96 715
117 765
131 804
155 843
183 891
195 914
217 949
236 973

mycurvefit.com predictions at 336 hours using 4PL model when the last data point is added
195 914 -> 974
217 949 -> 998
236 973 -> 1016

4PL
y = d + (a-d)/[1 + (x/c)^b]
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
After 258 hours: 987 players (Division 8 has exactly 14 full leagues)
Not signed up yet (includes the promotions and relegations for this season):
D1: 1p (Xevoc surprise)
D2: 2p (Isobanaani, BlueSteel)
D3: 5p
D4: 6p
Total D1-D4: 14p
D5: 15p
Total D1-D5: 29p
D6: 28p
Total: D1-D6: 57p
Some 2nd place promotions are theoretically still available. If there are no returning players in D1-D4 then almost all of D5 2nd places might make it into D4. However, there might be a good chance that returning players will fill some open slots. I'm assuming that the February-March game period seems to be the most devoid of traveling. The only way to see if any returning players are coming back is to look at previous seasons of players that did not play in S16, but are now showing as signed up. I'm not doing that...

S12 was the largest ever at 1006 players.

After 261 hours: 992 players. Signup ends at 336 hours.
24 247
48 577
72 676
96 715
117 765
131 804
155 843
183 891
195 914
217 949
236 973
258 987
261 992

mycurvefit.com predictions at 336 hours using 4PL model when the last data point is added
195 914 -> 974
217 949 -> 998
236 973 -> 1016
261 992 -> 1030

4PL
y = d + (a-d)/[1 + (x/c)^b]
 
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Steve Haas
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
I took a quick look over the top couple of divisions for the last couple of seasons, and the only returning player I found eligible to rejoin division 3 or higher is Yvon, who skipped S16 but was in division 3 in S15. I won't guarantee that I didn't miss others, though.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup Is Open!
It's now officially the largest league season ever with 1009 players at 281 hours.
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James Wolfpacker
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup 2 DAYS LEFT! Largest Ever
After 289 hours: 1019 players (Division 8 has 18 leagues)
Not signed up yet (includes the promotions and relegations for this season):
D1: 1p (Xevoc surprise)
D2: 1p (BlueSteel)
D3: 4p (jsnell, swoogiemonster, ThePants, Romma)
D4: 6p
Total D1-D4: 12p
D5: 15p
Total D1-D5: 27p
D6: 22p
Total: D1-D6: 49p

Data Points for your "FUN"
24 247
48 577
72 676
96 715
117 765
131 804
155 843
183 891
195 914
217 949
236 973
258 987
261 992
281 1009
289 1019

mycurvefit.com predictions at 336 hours using 4PL model when the last data point is added (R^2 = 0.9896).
195 914 -> 974
217 949 -> 998
236 973 -> 1016
261 992 -> 1030
289 1019 -> 1039

4PL
y = d + (a-d)/[1 + (x/c)^b][/q]

 
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Ola Caster
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Re: TM Tour Season 17 Signup 2 DAYS LEFT! Largest Ever
Steve496 wrote:
I took a quick look over the top couple of divisions for the last couple of seasons, and the only returning player I found eligible to rejoin division 3 or higher is Yvon, who skipped S16 but was in division 3 in S15. I won't guarantee that I didn't miss others, though.

What about bjolletz himself?
 
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