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Subject: Understanding Trump rss

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Donald
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It's an interesting concept, but would it translate into international politics?

This is more than "give me X or I'll take my business elsewhere". There's also egos, national pride, and a world wide audience watching that's jockeying for position and points.

Quote:
And don't forget the persuasive power of President Trump if he were to drop that 20 percent to something more like 2 percent. That kind of a decrease would simply make the White House sound very reasonable and fair, wouldn't it? That's how Trump negotiating tactics work: They flip the script on the other guys across the table.

But the original 20% offer makes Trump sound like a tyrannical loon. Even if it is the opening move in a sly negotiation, it's been seized on by everyone as an outrageous demand to someone Trump's already tried to bully into paying for the wall. How easy would it be to turn it around to "Trump only got a fraction of what he wanted, what a loser".

Going for 5% and getting 2% would have made him seem more realistic and a better negotiator than his big play that won't happen.

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Donald wrote:
It's an interesting concept, but would it translate into international politics?

This is more than "give me X or I'll take my business elsewhere". There's also egos, national pride, and a world wide audience watching that's jockeying for position and points.

Quote:
And don't forget the persuasive power of President Trump if he were to drop that 20 percent to something more like 2 percent. That kind of a decrease would simply make the White House sound very reasonable and fair, wouldn't it? That's how Trump negotiating tactics work: They flip the script on the other guys across the table.

But the original 20% offer makes Trump sound like a tyrannical loon. Even if it is the opening move in a sly negotiation, it's been seized on by everyone as an outrageous demand to someone Trump's already tried to bully into paying for the wall. How easy would it be to turn it around to "Trump only got a fraction of what he wanted, what a loser".

Going for 5% and getting 2% would have made him seem more realistic and a better negotiator than his big play that won't happen.



I think that Trump finds out what is legal and possible by doing whatever he wants then seeing who reacts and what he can do about it.

This is a terrible quality in the leader of a nation with a huge army and nuclear weapons. This is why the whole "but he's so good at business" is a really not a reason to vote for someone ever. In this case he's actually not even that good at business, but even if he were it's really an almost unrelated skill to being President.

Specifically the way Trump does business (charge around madly, self promote, then if things go south, making sure 'he gets his' before the train goes all the way off the tracks even if everyone else loses everything (see his many bankruptcies) is an utterly horrible quality in a president and is really an extremely strong argument against making him president, but obviously that didn't matter to the minority of Americans who voted him into office.
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Pontifex Maximus
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galad2003 wrote:
I'm posting this commentary piece I read online for two reasons, first to discuss the tax proposed by Trump. Second because I think the author has it right and understands how Trump operates.
Quote:

In his 1987 bestseller, "The Art of the Deal," Trump documents his affinity for making almost insane opening statements or bids for projects and prices. In one instance, the future president boasts about getting almost 50 percent off the price of a private jet by first offering just a third of the original asking price. And the trend continues from there. Several Trump-watchers have opined over the past year that his campaign and now his presidency is incorporating that strategy, thus inducing initial shock and outrage and then relative relief.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-why-outrage-over-1748415...


Where does the insulting the other country come into this "strategy"

Quote:
The Mexican government opposes a border wall separating the U.S. and Mexico because it does not want to stop the northward flow of illegal drugs and undocumented immigrants across the border, counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway said Friday.

“Well they don't want it, Gayle, because they want to continue to allow people and I assume drugs, since they’re not doing much to stop that, pouring over our borders,” Conway told “CBS This Morning” anchor Gayle King, who had asked the presidential counselor why Mexico should pay for a wall it does not want. “We have to look at America. Mexico should pay for that wall because they get an awful lot from this country through NAFTA and through other monetary disbursements.”


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-mexico-border-wa...

The Mexican government's war on drug has cost them dearly in lives and money. And they just extradicted one of the major kingpins to the US as well

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/world/el-chapo-extradited...


So how does insulting a country so much that it is political suicide to try and come to any deal with them part of his "strategy"?
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Another element of Trump that I think doesn't get enough attention is that he is actually extremely successful as and extremely experienced as a reality show actor and producer.

Just in case anyone thinks that American "reality TV" is in any way related to reality, it's not. What the producers do is create a scripted show, in some cases loosely based on the "real" personalities of the "characters" and then shoot tape, some ad libbed, some purely scripted and create a narrative which they then pass off as "real."

This fiction is allowed by the American people because, fuck I don't know I don't watch it, but most people treat this as "real" even though they probably aren't stupid and they know it's fake.

A lot of Trump's weird lies make sense in this context. Worried you won't get an actual standing ovation from the CIA? Bring your own crowd which cheers on demand and pretend it's the CIA. Didn't win the popular vote? Just say you did.

He's used to lying to us and us pretending to believe it. He's going to keep doing it.
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Well, I guess we'll found out if a flea market negotiation tactic will work for geopolitical issues.
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Koldfoot wrote:
Getting control of the borders is the goal.

Obama already took care of that. The number of illegal immigrats in the country has remained steady (and dropped slightly) since it skyrocketed in the Bush years. But I know...Obama so it didn't happen.
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galad2003 wrote:
I'm posting this commentary piece I read online for two reasons, first to discuss the tax proposed by Trump. Second because I think the author has it right and understands how Trump operates.
Quote:

In his 1987 bestseller, "The Art of the Deal," Trump documents his affinity for making almost insane opening statements or bids for projects and prices. In one instance, the future president boasts about getting almost 50 percent off the price of a private jet by first offering just a third of the original asking price. And the trend continues from there. Several Trump-watchers have opined over the past year that his campaign and now his presidency is incorporating that strategy, thus inducing initial shock and outrage and then relative relief.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-why-outrage-over-1748415...


This is my assessment as well. Moreover, if you want to assume Trump is really, really good at this method then it's worth mentioning that each "crazy" thing he does gives him potential leverage with many other deals.

In picking a fight with Mexico, Trump isn't just putting a vulnerable partner in a position where they may accept something really bad to avoid tariffs that would destroy their economy. He's also signalling to other partners that he's willing to do things that would harm the US so they can't just assume he's bluffing. NATO nations that have resisted increasing their military budgets may now be thinking, "Crap, we need to do this now or he's going to blow up NATO and we'll need to learn to speak Russian."

This approach is widely-recognized in negotiation circles, but there are reasons why it's not more popular. It is good for value claiming but awful for value creation and for relationships.
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
damiangerous wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
Getting control of the borders is the goal.

Obama already took care of that. The number of illegal immigrats in the country has remained steady (and dropped slightly) since it skyrocketed in the Bush years. But I know...Obama so it didn't happen.


Dropped slightly is not the same thing as dealing with 11 million plus illegal immigrants that are already here. So you can't really claim mission accomplished for Obama.

I claimed the borders were under control. The next step would be dealing with those that are already here.
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Damian
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Koldfoot wrote:
damiangerous wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
Getting control of the borders is the goal.

Obama already took care of that. The number of illegal immigrats in the country has remained steady (and dropped slightly) since it skyrocketed in the Bush years. But I know...Obama so it didn't happen.


So why are you against stricter enforcement?

Because it would be expensively wasteful, unnecessary to begin with and negatively impact our relationship with a major trading partner. There are no positives and loads of negatives.
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Trump has never written a book. And the only one he's read is Mein Kampf.
 
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Koldfoot wrote:
Take, for example, the wall. Is a wall the endgame? No way. Getting control of the borders is the goal. The hysteria over a wall is truly fascinating to watch, meanwhile border agents have been allowed to do their job with very little notice.

Letting border agents do their job will have a huge impact, deporting people will have an impact.


I'm sorry. Is your assertion that previously, border agents were not allowed to do their jobs?
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R. Frazier
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
galad2003 wrote:
I'm posting this commentary piece I read online for two reasons, first to discuss the tax proposed by Trump. Second because I think the author has it right and understands how Trump operates.
Quote:

In his 1987 bestseller, "The Art of the Deal," Trump documents his affinity for making almost insane opening statements or bids for projects and prices. In one instance, the future president boasts about getting almost 50 percent off the price of a private jet by first offering just a third of the original asking price. And the trend continues from there. Several Trump-watchers have opined over the past year that his campaign and now his presidency is incorporating that strategy, thus inducing initial shock and outrage and then relative relief.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-why-outrage-over-1748415...


This is my assessment as well. Moreover, if you want to assume Trump is really, really good at this method then it's worth mentioning that each "crazy" thing he does gives him potential leverage with many other deals.

In picking a fight with Mexico, Trump isn't just putting a vulnerable partner in a position where they may accept something really bad to avoid tariffs that would destroy their economy. He's also signalling to other partners that he's willing to do things that would harm the US so they can't just assume he's bluffing. NATO nations that have resisted increasing their military budgets may now be thinking, "Crap, we need to do this now or he's going to blow up NATO and we'll need to learn to speak Russian."

This approach is widely-recognized in negotiation circles, but there are reasons why it's not more popular. It is good for value claiming but awful for value creation and for relationships.


Right, because when a long-term reliable trading partner suddenly threatens to do something that would harm you because of your reliance on them, the first thing you're likely to do is capitulate to lessen short-term harm and pain. This makes that partner look like a "winner" and you look like a "loser" something I'm sure Mr. Trump will very much enjoy.

That said, at the exact same time the "loser" begins looking for other trading partners.

That is the lesson that the world is learning right now about America. Don't do business with America - its president is crazy and could yank the rug out from under you or tax you at any moment. Do not set yourself up to depend on America or rely on America in any way.

More than anything else, this is going to guarantee our decline as a world power and lessen our sphere of influence. We are literally marginalizing our selves in exchange for short term political gain for Trump.
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Koldfoot wrote:
MWChapel wrote:
Well, I guess we'll found out if a flea market negotiation tactic will work for geopolitical issues.


It's working.

Take, for example, the wall. Is a wall the endgame? No way. Getting control of the borders is the goal. The hysteria over a wall is truly fascinating to watch, meanwhile border agents have been allowed to do their job with very little notice.

Letting border agents do their job will have a huge impact, deporting people will have an impact. A wall would be great, but as a distraction it is working beyond our wildest dreams. The left has taken their eyes off the ball. When trump backs down on the wall the left will count it as a victory, without even realizing they were playing the wrong game.


It may (or may not) be working internally, but I feel that MWChapel was referring to international relationship, and there, the bully behavior to Mexico is seen as something really negative.

In a world where USA and China are headed for a economic fight for supremacy, losing allies is a very bad idea for USA. Believe me - Mexico was a good ally of USA.
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LightRider wrote:
Trump has never written a book. And the only one he's read is Mein Kampf.
He should read "The Genius of Sitting Bull: Business Strategy" while AVOID the "tragic demise" of the real sort.
 
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Koldfoot wrote:

Take, for example, the wall. Is a wall the endgame? No way. Getting control of the borders is the goal. The hysteria over a wall is truly fascinating to watch, meanwhile border agents have been allowed to do their job with very little notice.


Which is weird since Trump hasn't Ok'ed the policy yet. Also, there's no where to put them.

One of the cornerstones and major promises of Trump's campaign, the wall, was just smoke and mirrors that he had no intention of doing? And that's Okay?

 
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Koldfoot wrote:
jamuki wrote:
Believe me - Mexico was a good ally of USA.


Interesting thought.

They are? Could be. In what realm?


https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35749.htm
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MWChapel wrote:
Well, I guess we'll found out if a flea market negotiation tactic will work for geopolitical issues.


I'll give you fifty cents for that bundle of games.
 
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Koldfoot wrote:
damiangerous wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
Getting control of the borders is the goal.

Obama already took care of that. The number of illegal immigrats in the country has remained steady (and dropped slightly) since it skyrocketed in the Bush years. But I know...Obama so it didn't happen.


So why are you against stricter enforcement?


Do you have those 11 million hard working H'Americans to take up the jobs?

Oh, they could be doing those jobs now, but ... hard.

OK, got it.

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jasonwocky wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
Take, for example, the wall. Is a wall the endgame? No way. Getting control of the borders is the goal. The hysteria over a wall is truly fascinating to watch, meanwhile border agents have been allowed to do their job with very little notice.

Letting border agents do their job will have a huge impact, deporting people will have an impact.


I'm sorry. Is your assertion that previously, border agents were not allowed to do their jobs?


Yeah, Koldie is on the DHS management team, and sees all those agents were desk bound, forced to play MS Solitaire 40 hrs week.

Well, then who the fuck checks all my whiskey cache everytime I cross from Nuevo Laredo?

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Koldfoot wrote:
jamuki wrote:
Believe me - Mexico was a good ally of USA.


Interesting thought.

They are? Could be. In what realm?

Fighting drug smuggling? Controlling the border? Militarily?

Trade? Maybe. How are you defining "ally"? Is China our ally? Is Venezuala our ally?

If we were to post a poll of good US allies on an unbiased group, with many nations on the list, you suppose Mexico would come out on top with England, or Canada? Maybe a little lower? New Zealand, Philippines? Given an informed group, do you think Mexico would be a little further down the list with Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia?

Forget a poll. Ask a group to name americas top allies. Their lists would be pretty damn long before Mexico made anyone's list.


Do ally's need to be all the way up in you, hitting that spot, in order to be "Allies" or are they still just "allies"?

I'm confused at your all or nothing premise.

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Koldfoot wrote:
At $20B it would pay for itself in months.


Oh, please show me the maths. Show work.
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Koldfoot wrote:
darthhugo wrote:
jasonwocky wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
Take, for example, the wall. Is a wall the endgame? No way. Getting control of the borders is the goal. The hysteria over a wall is truly fascinating to watch, meanwhile border agents have been allowed to do their job with very little notice.

Letting border agents do their job will have a huge impact, deporting people will have an impact.


I'm sorry. Is your assertion that previously, border agents were not allowed to do their jobs?


Yeah, Koldie is on the DHS management team, and sees all those agents were desk bound, forced to play MS Solitaire 40 hrs week.

Well, then who the fuck checks all my whiskey cache everytime I cross from Nuevo Laredo?



http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/border-ice-agents-cheer-tr...

This is from today. Do I need to go back and find the statements complaining that agents were prohibited from doing their job under Kim Jong Obama?

I could. If you missed them I doubt you will just accept those statements now.

From their union.

As representatives of the nation's Frontline immigration officers and agents responsible for enforcing our laws and protecting our borders, we fully support and appreciate President Trump's swift and decisive action to keep the American people safe and allow law enforcement to do its job.


First off, nice source.

Secondly, doesn't the Executioner always cheer when the Hanging Judge gets elected.

Next time I'm in Laredo this April, I'll see the many ICE agents, with whom I drink and ride patrols, just to get their take on the change. As I expect, like any large group, some will have wild hard-ons for Orangeman, some will be soft.

They're good eggs. Tough fucking job. But not as tough as the homicide and narcotics police. Those dudes lead dark lives, and there is a point in the evening where you just leave.
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Koldfoot wrote:
darthhugo wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
At $20B it would pay for itself in months.


Oh, please show me the maths. Show work.


Liberal outrage is worth at least $1M an hour.


Just what I thought. Empty hand, no finish.

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Koldfoot wrote:
darthhugo wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
darthhugo wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
At $20B it would pay for itself in months.


Oh, please show me the maths. Show work.


Liberal outrage is worth at least $1M an hour.


Just what I thought. Empty hand, no finish.



Which of the many arguments out there will you accept?

Why would I beat my head against that wall... with you?

I was glad to see you leave. Now you are back and not nearly so abrasive. That's good. We'll see what happens, but first impressions did not put you into the realm of "thoughtful".


Please show me the details of the $20B in savings, payback in a few months.

Until then, please do continue to be acquainted with that wall.

And aren't you a full time Uber driver... haven't you chimed into that Uber thread or whatever it is?

As for your comments about thoughtful... yeah, sometimes. No, sometimes. Depends on my level of interest and ROI.



 
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