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Subject: Saudi Arabia agrees to support safe zones in Syria and Yemen rss

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Steve Cates
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Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.

http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/king-salman-and-...




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Corey Hopkins
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Is there a timetable for these safe zones?
How many will there be, and how many refugees will they be able to accomodate?
Who will be administering the safe zones? The US? Saudi Arabia? The UN?
Has President Trump called President Assad to discuss the safe zones that he wants to set up in his (Assad's) country?
 
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ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.

http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/king-salman-and-...






You got any sources a little less"alternative fact"?
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Steve Cates
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It might take a second week to hammer out all the details. I'll give him half the time obama had.
 
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The creation of "safe zones" requires two things: 1. someone willing to give up a bunch of land to refugees and 2. someone willing to put a whole lot of soldiers on that land.

If this is true, Saudi Arabia backing a US plan to create a "safe zone" in Syria doesn't come as much of a surprise, it's like when the settlers "bought Manhattan Island" from a tribe that didn't live there.

Obama could also have created a "safe zone" however he decided against it when he found that it would require an indefinite commitment of 30,000 American soldiers.

I'm not even going to get into your rant about migrants or your youtube preacher's pants wetting fear of migrants "destroying western civilization" I still remember the last time you linked me to his hilariously ridiculous rant about how women were biologically programmed to destroy civilization. laugh
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Steve Cates
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Kumitedad wrote:


You got any sources a little less"alternative fact"?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-saudi-idUSKBN15D...
 
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Corey Hopkins
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ironcates wrote:
It might take a second week to hammer out all the details. I'll give him half the time obama had.


Interesting. From your first sentence it sounded like an actual solution had been found.

So I guess you'll let us know when that happens? I'm sure you'll be checking into it regularly, as you seem to be informed and invested in the issue.
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rylfrazier wrote:
I still remember the last time you linked me to his hilariously ridiculous rant about how women were biologically programmed to destroy civilization. laugh

Literally no idea what you're talking about...source?
 
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R. Frazier
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ironcates wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
I still remember the last time you linked me to his hilariously ridiculous rant about how women were biologically programmed to destroy civilization. laugh

Literally no idea what you're talking about...source?


OK, I'll play along. He called the video "The Death of Nations: Globalism, Immigration and Migrant Crisis". It's long, but the claims I refer to are in there, I foolishly listened to most of it as it was my first exposure to his hilariously dimwitted ranting and I found myself entranced by his ability to stack idiocy on top of error on top of racism on top of sexism.
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Where does Saudi Arabia fall on ghe whole sunni/Shia thing that is fueling the chaos over there? If memory serves (which it may not!) I think they are opposite of Iran, which would mean you could reword it as 'Saudi Arabia volunteers to station large military force on rival's northern border'
 
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rylfrazier wrote:
ironcates wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
I still remember the last time you linked me to his hilariously ridiculous rant about how women were biologically programmed to destroy civilization. laugh

Literally no idea what you're talking about...source?


OK, I'll play along. He called the video "The Death of Nations: Globalism, Immigration and Migrant Crisis". It's long, but the claims I refer to are in there, I foolishly listened to most of it as it was my first exposure to his hilariously dimwitted ranting and I found myself entranced by his ability to stack idiocy on top of error on top of racism on top of sexism.

Searched my youtube history, you must be thinking of someone else.
 
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R. Frazier
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ironcates wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
ironcates wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
I still remember the last time you linked me to his hilariously ridiculous rant about how women were biologically programmed to destroy civilization. laugh

Literally no idea what you're talking about...source?


OK, I'll play along. He called the video "The Death of Nations: Globalism, Immigration and Migrant Crisis". It's long, but the claims I refer to are in there, I foolishly listened to most of it as it was my first exposure to his hilariously dimwitted ranting and I found myself entranced by his ability to stack idiocy on top of error on top of racism on top of sexism.

Searched my youtube history, you must be thinking of someone else.


Well I may be mixing you up with another fan of this super annoying guy, if so I apologize, but in summary if you think he says something smart and you want me to talk to you about the thing he is saying really honestly do NOT link to his video because that will immediately put me in a "oh this idea comes from that racist sexist idiot" frame of mind.
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ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.


Could you poison the well any more? You start with hyperbole (Trump solves the migrant crisis), then imply anyone not applauding this (since it's obviously a done deal) is showing their true colors and conclude that those folks want to tear Trump down at any cost and care more about virtue signalling than actual people.

In the meantime, we have nothing more than a vague pledge of "support" for a non-existent plan. I'd be very happy if there were real safe zones in these countries, but we're talking about the same Trump who said that he and his HHS nominee were putting the finishing touches on a comprehensive replacement for Obamacare...and when said nominee was asked if this was true, replied, "It's true that he said it," to chuckles throughout the room. Put simply, Trump saying that he's got a plan and that someone else is on board doesn't mean that either is true.
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.


Could you poison the well any more? You start with hyperbole (Trump solves the migrant crisis), then imply anyone not applauding this (since it's obviously a done deal) is showing their true colors and conclude that those folks want to tear Trump down at any cost and care more about virtue signalling than actual people.

In the meantime, we have nothing more than a vague pledge of "support" for a non-existent plan. I'd be very happy if there were real safe zones in these countries, but we're talking about the same Trump who said that he and his HHS nominee were putting the finishing touches on a comprehensive replacement for Obamacare...and when said nominee was asked if this was true, replied, "It's true that he said it," to chuckles throughout the room. Put simply, Trump saying that he's got a plan and that someone else is on board doesn't mean that either is true.
Wonderful, that's all I ask. Sorry, to poison the well.
 
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ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls.


Solves is a little strong. Angry Hulk strong. Really angry Hulk strong.

Quote:
Given the military dynamics in Syria, a safe zone is not achievable without a no-fly zone and it requires significant resources as well as regional buy-in.

The US military has been and remains reluctant to take part in such a plan that carries risks of confrontation by transforming its role from defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) to policing a safe zone.

The Pentagon estimated that it will take between 15,000 and 30,000 US troops to secure a safe zone in Syria with a cost of at least $1bn a month.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/trump-real-...

Quote:
Trump brought up safe zones during phone calls with Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and Abu Dhabi's crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, according to statements from the White House that make no mention who will fund the safe zones.

Following the call with Salman, the White House said in a statement: “The President requested and the King agreed to support safe zones in Syria and Yemen, as well as supporting other ideas to help the many refugees who are displaced by the ongoing conflicts.”

Salman's office released a statement about the call that made no mention of safe zones.

Trump has provided no details about what this safe zone would look like and who would protect it. The Obama administration ruled out the idea, which both Trump and his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, proposed on the campaign trail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01...

But, ya. Except for how it's going to work, the problem is solved.

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Donald wrote:
ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls.


Solves is a little strong. Angry Hulk strong. Really angry Hulk strong.

Quote:
Given the military dynamics in Syria, a safe zone is not achievable without a no-fly zone and it requires significant resources as well as regional buy-in.

The US military has been and remains reluctant to take part in such a plan that carries risks of confrontation by transforming its role from defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) to policing a safe zone.

The Pentagon estimated that it will take between 15,000 and 30,000 US troops to secure a safe zone in Syria with a cost of at least $1bn a month.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/trump-real-...

Quote:
Trump brought up safe zones during phone calls with Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and Abu Dhabi's crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, according to statements from the White House that make no mention who will fund the safe zones.

Following the call with Salman, the White House said in a statement: “The President requested and the King agreed to support safe zones in Syria and Yemen, as well as supporting other ideas to help the many refugees who are displaced by the ongoing conflicts.”

Salman's office released a statement about the call that made no mention of safe zones.

Trump has provided no details about what this safe zone would look like and who would protect it. The Obama administration ruled out the idea, which both Trump and his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, proposed on the campaign trail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01...

But, ya. Except for how it's going to work, the problem is solved.



A little research on how the "safe zone" of Srebrenica worked is advised before wetting oneself over the latest Trump "victory".
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You can tell we are on the right path when the terms of the discussion go straight back to the Spenglerian wanking over the Thermopylae.
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ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.

http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/king-salman-and-...





This looks like a hell of a lot more than 55 out of 100,000 (0.055%)


Employment Rates in United States and Germany for Refugees (Ages 16+) By Years Since Arrival


https://www.cato.org/blog/why-refugees-find-jobs-faster-us-g...
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Maybe Saudi Arabia should use these.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/15/saudi-arabia...
 
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ironcates wrote:
Chad_Ellis wrote:
ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.


Could you poison the well any more? You start with hyperbole (Trump solves the migrant crisis), then imply anyone not applauding this (since it's obviously a done deal) is showing their true colors and conclude that those folks want to tear Trump down at any cost and care more about virtue signalling than actual people.

In the meantime, we have nothing more than a vague pledge of "support" for a non-existent plan. I'd be very happy if there were real safe zones in these countries, but we're talking about the same Trump who said that he and his HHS nominee were putting the finishing touches on a comprehensive replacement for Obamacare...and when said nominee was asked if this was true, replied, "It's true that he said it," to chuckles throughout the room. Put simply, Trump saying that he's got a plan and that someone else is on board doesn't mean that either is true.
Wonderful, that's all I ask. Sorry, to poison the well.


Accepted. Do you agree that at the moment this is all just hope and that there is no tangible evidence of any plan, let alone progress towards actual safe zones?

Do you agree that one of the basic facts of your starting point (that virtually no refugees find jobs) is simply false?
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ironcates wrote:
Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors.


Safe zone? Like in Srebrenica?

EDIT: Kumitedad got there before me.
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
ironcates wrote:
Chad_Ellis wrote:
ironcates wrote:
Wow, one week on the job and Trump solves the migrant crisis with two phone calls. Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors. Bringing refugees to the US or Europe helps very little. They can't be employed, most aren't literate in their own language. Something like 55 out of 100,000 get jobs. It costs 10 times as much which means 10 other refugees in the Middle East don't get settled. Of course, the people that want to tear down Trump, at any cost, want to virtue signal that they're so caring, meanwhile 10 to 1 the people that need it are worse off.


Could you poison the well any more? You start with hyperbole (Trump solves the migrant crisis), then imply anyone not applauding this (since it's obviously a done deal) is showing their true colors and conclude that those folks want to tear Trump down at any cost and care more about virtue signalling than actual people.

In the meantime, we have nothing more than a vague pledge of "support" for a non-existent plan. I'd be very happy if there were real safe zones in these countries, but we're talking about the same Trump who said that he and his HHS nominee were putting the finishing touches on a comprehensive replacement for Obamacare...and when said nominee was asked if this was true, replied, "It's true that he said it," to chuckles throughout the room. Put simply, Trump saying that he's got a plan and that someone else is on board doesn't mean that either is true.
Wonderful, that's all I ask. Sorry, to poison the well.


Accepted. Do you agree that at the moment this is all just hope and that there is no tangible evidence of any plan, let alone progress towards actual safe zones?

Do you agree that one of the basic facts of your starting point (that virtually no refugees find jobs) is simply false?
I agree that at this point it is all hope, but this is progress. Saudi Arabia hasn't agreed to this before.

Of 1 million immigrants to Germany, 54 found high skill jobs.
http://speisa.com/modules/articles/index.php/item.2954/germa...
That was the number I was thinking of but it was referring to high skill.

Googling again I found 34,000 of 1.2 million found jobs 22% are temporary. That's .0028%
https://www.thelocal.de/20161219/so-far-only-34000-refugees-...

55/100,000 is .055% so I over estimated slightly.
 
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Most of these refugees likely expect to return home when the crisis is over. Many lack paperwork and have to go through extensivr zcreening and paperwork processes, those same processes were never meant to handle 1.2m in 2 yrs, a significant portiin of the refugees are children or women from a culture as homemakers, almost no market is able to absorb a labor pool spike of that size smoothely. Language and educational barriers are so likely to be very high. It makes perfect sense that jobs are slow to come by,
 
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Shadrach wrote:
Most of these refugees likely expect to return home when the crisis is over. Many lack paperwork and have to go through extensivr zcreening and paperwork processes, those same processes were never meant to handle 1.2m in 2 yrs, a significant portiin of the refugees are children or women from a culture as homemakers, almost no market is able to absorb a labor pool spike of that size smoothely. Language and educational barriers are so likely to be very high. It makes perfect sense that jobs are slow to come by,
Exactly why finding a place for them where they know the language and culture is preferable. War isn't happening everywhere in the middle east.
 
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Salo sila wrote:
ironcates wrote:
Anybody not celebrating the fact that Syrians and Yemeni will have a safe haven in their own country until the fighting is over, will show their true colors.


Safe zone? Like in Srebrenica?

EDIT: Kumitedad got there before me.


One of the problems with establishing safe zones before was that the U.S. military opposed them - safe zones require no-fly zones, and the Syrian air defences are pretty good (as they were built to take on the IDF). If the Saudis are willing to use their air force to enforce the zone, that gets over the problem of the risk to the U.S. Air Force that stalled efforts before, but increases the risk of a Saudi/Iran/Russia escalation.

The U.S. also previously rejected Turkey's safe zone proposals in 2015, because of Turkey role in establishing said zone would have meant throwing our Kurdish allies in Syria under the bus. Here's a primer from the CS monitor of the issues with that proposal in 2015.

Critique of the latest safe zone idea from Cato here.

Safe zones worked well in Iraq (after the Iraqi military was comprehensively defeated) and there was political will to enforce them. They were a horrendous failure in Bosnia, where the Serbs and Serbian militias were not defeated, and there was no political will to enforce them. (The death of the 17 rangers in Mogadishu in Somalia had profound effects on the U.S. and West's response [or lack thereof] in both the Former Republic of Yugoslavia and in Rwanda.)
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