Alexandre P.
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In France we have a presidential election this year (then followed by a legislative election) in April and May.

The right party (formerly "union for a presidential majority", then "union for a popular majority" and now "The Republicans") held a primary at the end of 2016 which our former president and president of this party (Nicolas Sarkozy) lost.
The winner was François Fillon (former prime minister of Nicolas Sarkozy) against Alain Juppé (prime minister in 95-97).

As the others candidates of his party he wants a strong country ... but with 500 000 less public servants. He was also unclear about which prescriptions he wanted to see less reimbursed.

He was considered as the honest candidate but lately he has been "splashed" by a few scandals, including the fact he hired his wife as a staffer but it is very unclear what staff she did or even if she had a real job or if it was a fictional work (500 000 € in 8 years).

So:
- potential voters are disappointed/angry/disgusted,
- his resignation is asked by some of his adversaries,
- his "political friends" are on the "he has not been judged guilty ... but it's time to find a plan B",
- our former president Nicolas Sarkozy (accused of having received illegal funds from Libya, amongst other things) is said to consider the possibility to run (despite of his loss at the primary),
- Alain Juppé says he refuses to be the plan B, whatever happens,
- specialists of the constitutions are trying to determine if the constitution has anything planned in case one of the major candidates quit a few months before the election*,
- journalists are trying to determine if the justice will try to rush to decide if there is a reason to open a case or if it will wait until after the election, not to alter the outcome,
...

To be continued ...




*it seems that if he resigns between March the 10th and March the 17th the election would be delayed.

Edit :
typo
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C Bazler
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An unpopular conservative candidate, disliked by even his own party, is bound to lose and has been asked to step aside?

Obviously, he's going to win, and it's going to be yuuuge.
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Alexandre P.
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cbazler wrote:
An unpopular conservative candidate, disliked by even his own party, is bound to lose and has been asked to step aside?

Obviously, he's going to win, and it's going to be yuuuge.


It reminds me that after Donald Trump's election, some journalists asked "Is François Fillon the French Trump ?" but as they asked this about several candidates, it was just journalist coming aboard the hype train looking for new ways to ask their questions.
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Xahendir wrote:
cbazler wrote:
An unpopular conservative candidate, disliked by even his own party, is bound to lose and has been asked to step aside?

Obviously, he's going to win, and it's going to be yuuuge.


It reminds me that after Donald Trump's election, some journalists asked "Is François Fillon the French Trump ?" but as they asked this about several candidates, it was just journalist coming aboard the hype train looking for new ways to ask their questions.


How do you see Le Pen's chances?
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Andy Leighton
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Surely Sarkozy doesn't think he stands a chance.

TBH I think Les Républicains are fatally holed for this round of presidential elections. People are not going to want Sarko, Juppé lost in the primaries to Fillon. Fillon now looks like a crook and has already slid into third place.

Looks to me as if it will be a Macron vs Le Pen second round - with Macron taking that easily. Of course that is also going to be weird because Macron doesn't have a proper political party. So who knows what is going to go on with the Assemblée Nationale when it comes to the elections for that a little later. Will it help the more centrist candidates? Will Macron be able to turn En Marche! into a proper party and not a movement by luring some to join him?
 
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Alexandre P.
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wifwendell wrote:
Xahendir wrote:
cbazler wrote:
An unpopular conservative candidate, disliked by even his own party, is bound to lose and has been asked to step aside?

Obviously, he's going to win, and it's going to be yuuuge.


It reminds me that after Donald Trump's election, some journalists asked "Is François Fillon the French Trump ?" but as they asked this about several candidates, it was just journalist coming aboard the hype train looking for new ways to ask their questions.


How do you see Le Pen's chances?


Very weak: we have 2 turns: the 1st one selects the 2 "finalists" and the 2nd one gives the president or, as we say "during the 1st one you chose [you vote for your candidate] and during the 2nd one you eliminate [because if your candidate was amongst the dozen who lost you chose which one you want to eliminate]".
IF she is part of the 2nd turn (as was her father in '02) we will see a "republican front" and she will lose with 20-25 % max (as did her father in '02).

Plus, if she is elected president, we then have to vote for the legislative election and she has to chose a prime minister in the leading party at the low chamber of the parliament.
And the prime minister is the one in charge of the politics.

So, worst case scenario: she is elected president, she is the represent of France abroad, she is the "cammander in chief" but inside our borders the politics are lead by the prime minister.

andyl wrote:
Looks to me as if it will be a Macron vs Le Pen second round - with Macron taking that easily.


If the 2nd turn is Whoever vs Le Pen, Whoever wins.

Quote:
Of course that is also going to be weird because Macron doesn't have a proper political party. So who knows what is going to go on with the Assemblée Nationale when it comes to the elections for that a little later. Will it help the more centrist candidates? Will Macron be able to turn En Marche! into a proper party and not a movement by luring some to join him?


He is looking for candidates on Craig's list ...
The thing is that the "socialist" candidate is ... a lot more socialist than the majority of the so-called "socialist party" so the question could be Americanized in "if Bernie Sanders is the official candidate for the Democrats but Hillary Clinton is a candidate without a party, wil some Democrats join her ?".

Emmanuel Macron wants to be joined by the centre, the right of the left and the left of the right, in fact by everyone who is interested by his still unclear program of an ex-banker who calls himself a "reformist".

The thing is that he is loved by a part of the media because he is "bankable" and so the media are artificially promoting him as the candidate who wins ... the right to be on the front page ...

Before the previous election, the media sold us as the "champion of the left" Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the IMF and later accused of several sex-related crimes.

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Xahendir wrote:
In France we have a presidential election this year (then followed by a legislative election) in April and May.

The right party (formerly "union for a presidential majority", then "union for a popular majority" and now "The Republicans") held a primary at the end of 2016 which our former president and president of this party (Nicolas Sarkozy) lost.
The winner was François Fillon (former prime minister of Nicolas Sarkozy) against Alain Juppé (prime minister in 95-97).

As the others candidate of his party he wants a strong country ... but with 500 000 less public servants. He was also unclear about which prescriptions he wanted to see less reimbursed.

He was considered as the honest candidate but lately he has been "splashed" by a few scandals, including the fact he hired his wife as a staffer but it is very unclear what staff she did or even if she had a real job or if it was a fictional work (500 000 € in 8 years).

So:
- potential voters are disappointed/angry/disgusted,
- his resignation is asked by some of his adversaries,
- his "political friends" are on the "he has not been judged guilty ... but it's time to find a plan B",
- our former president Nicolas Sarkozy (accused of having received illegal funds from Libya, amongst other things) is said to consider the possibility to run (despite of his loss at the primary),
- Alain Juppé says he refuses to be the plan B, whatever happens,
- specialists of the constitutions are trying to determine if the constitution has anything planned in case one of the major candidates quit a few months before the election*,
- journalists are trying to determine if the justice will try to rush to decide if there is a reason to open a case or if it will wait until after the election, not to alter the outcome,
...

To be continued ...




*it seems that if he resigns between March the 10th and March the 17th the election would be delayed.


I long for the days where simply hiring your wife and overpaying her counted as resignation-worthy corruption in my country.
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wifwendell wrote:
Xahendir wrote:
cbazler wrote:
An unpopular conservative candidate, disliked by even his own party, is bound to lose and has been asked to step aside?

Obviously, he's going to win, and it's going to be yuuuge.


It reminds me that after Donald Trump's election, some journalists asked "Is François Fillon the French Trump ?" but as they asked this about several candidates, it was just journalist coming aboard the hype train looking for new ways to ask their questions.


How do you see Le Pen's chances?


He's polling stronger than La Sword.
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Hermann Huth
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Shadrach wrote:

He's polling stronger than La Sword.


He's a she, baby!
Americans...
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King Kolrabi wrote:
Shadrach wrote:

He's polling stronger than La Sword.


He's a she, baby!
Americans...


Non-Bianary
 
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Andy Leighton
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Xahendir wrote:
The thing is that the "socialist" candidate is ... a lot more socialist than the majority of the so-called "socialist party"

Sure same thing in the UK. Corbyn is to the left of the Labour party, and to the left of any leader for the past 30 odd years. Lots of the Blairites (who are more centrist) in the party are finding it hard and some seem in open revolt. No MPs have crossed the floor and joined other parties yet ... but some have resigned and taken jobs outside politics.
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Alexandre P.
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The thing is that Benoît Hamon was amongst the insubordinate socialist so he doesn't agree with several policies of the current socialist government.

And now all the socialist have to chose:
a) join the official socialist candidate and so implicitly (or publicly) reject the policies of their government, or
b) claim that the policies of the current government are the good ones and so implicitly (or publicly) refuse to help their candidate to campaign, or
c) support the policies and support the candidates ... who claims that some of these policies were bad ideas.
 
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Terwox wrote:
Xahendir wrote:
In France we have a presidential election this year (then followed by a legislative election) in April and May.

The right party (formerly "union for a presidential majority", then "union for a popular majority" and now "The Republicans") held a primary at the end of 2016 which our former president and president of this party (Nicolas Sarkozy) lost.
The winner was François Fillon (former prime minister of Nicolas Sarkozy) against Alain Juppé (prime minister in 95-97).

As the others candidate of his party he wants a strong country ... but with 500 000 less public servants. He was also unclear about which prescriptions he wanted to see less reimbursed.

He was considered as the honest candidate but lately he has been "splashed" by a few scandals, including the fact he hired his wife as a staffer but it is very unclear what staff she did or even if she had a real job or if it was a fictional work (500 000 € in 8 years).

So:
- potential voters are disappointed/angry/disgusted,
- his resignation is asked by some of his adversaries,
- his "political friends" are on the "he has not been judged guilty ... but it's time to find a plan B",
- our former president Nicolas Sarkozy (accused of having received illegal funds from Libya, amongst other things) is said to consider the possibility to run (despite of his loss at the primary),
- Alain Juppé says he refuses to be the plan B, whatever happens,
- specialists of the constitutions are trying to determine if the constitution has anything planned in case one of the major candidates quit a few months before the election*,
- journalists are trying to determine if the justice will try to rush to decide if there is a reason to open a case or if it will wait until after the election, not to alter the outcome,
...

To be continued ...




*it seems that if he resigns between March the 10th and March the 17th the election would be delayed.


I long for the days where simply hiring your wife and overpaying her counted as resignation-worthy corruption in my country.


There was a Nixon' scandal about that in the 50s, isn't it?

edit: No, it was wrong. He accused other politicians of putting their wives in the payroll

http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/nixon-checkers.htm

Quote:

Another way that is used is to put your wife on the payroll. Let me say, incidentally, that my opponent, my opposite number for the Vice-presidency on the Democratic ticket, does have his wife on the payroll and has had her on his payroll for the past ten years. Now let me just say this--That is his business, and I am not critical of him for doing that. You will have to pass judgment on that particular point, but I have never done that for this reason:


This is from 1952, so at least in 1952 to had your wife in the payroll appears to be a not so uncommon thing.
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Alexandre P.
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So ...

He has lied about a journalist calling his wife to apologise.
He says he is under attack by the media and it has never been so strong.
The president of a Center-party accuse him of being "under the influence" of the wealthy corporates.

And now some journalists use the expression "Fillon's alternative facts" ...

Regarding the scandal itself:
- his wife was his staffer,
- he had no office dedicated to his role a member of the parliament in the sector which elected him,
- she had a very vague contract of employment,
- nobody seems to have noticed her,
- it seems there is no tangible proof of her work,
- she was described as having a quite "immaterial" (my wording) job to help her husband,
- she worked with the successor of her husband (his subsititute as a MP),
- her salary rose when she started working for the successor (the maximum salary allowed was higher as she was not a member of the family of the sitting MP),
- she also worked in a magazine and so had 2 full-time jobs,
- she had severance pays which seem higher than they should have been
...
 
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