Recommend
1 
 Thumb up
 Hide
23 Posts

BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Religion, Sex, and Politics

Subject: Legalization ramifications. rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
United States
Colorado
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Do you think the black market for marijuana has increased or decreased in CO after legalization?
Don't look it up, just guess and explain why.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Born To Lose, Live To Win
United States
South Euclid
Ohio
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I can't really say for sure as I am unfamiliar with what kind of legalization they have there. If they have a "free market" legalization for all uses, then I'd say the Black Market would dry up and disappear. If they have some overly regulated system of exclusive licensing, limited possession amounts and extreme tax rates, then I'd say there is still room for the Black Market to make a profit.
6 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Carl Parsons
United States
Carrollton
Texas
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I would guess the local black market has increased while the "foreign" imports have decreased. Why go through all of the trouble of importing marijuana into a state where the profits aren't as high as somewhere it is illegal. I think this is one of the best possible results of legal marijuana as illegal drug transportation creates violence and unsafe conditions in a lot of areas.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Jim Rice
United States
New Hampshire
flag msg tools
Blah Blah Blah
badge
I didn't know what else to do with the GG
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Well I could guess based off of speculation....and it could go both ways. Idealistically I would like to think that it would lower black market activity in the local area, but at the same time I could see an increase as it could become a distribution center. Damn and now the wall to mexico will block our illegal exporting out of the country! Frickin wall.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
United States
Vancouver
Washington
flag msg tools
badge
Ami. Geek.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I agree with Carl. I could see it going up due to small time local growers wanting to make a few bucks by avoiding the taxes. The good news there is that there is no reason to murder anyone over it anymore. There isn't enough money in it to be worth it to the cartels and large grow operations. I think the crime is transitioning from violent to more of a blue collar crime on par with tax evasion or shoplifting.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
I see you...
United States
Avon
Ohio
flag msg tools
"I made a promise on the grave of my parents...
badge
...that I would rid this city of the evil that took their lives. "
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
There would be "two" black markets from such legalization (depending on a number of variables of course). The one that exists in the state (since it's 21 and older) and those that originate in the state but export it out of state.

I have to imagine that it's probably less in some respect, more in others.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Matthew Schoell
United States
Rochester
New York
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Or we could all go looking for some more information like:
http://www.cpr.org/news/story/report-colorado-better-washing...

and could discuss that it has very little to do with legalization and much more to do with economics.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Carl Parsons
United States
Carrollton
Texas
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Doc Mage wrote:
Or we could all go looking for some more information like:
http://www.cpr.org/news/story/report-colorado-better-washing...

and could discuss that it has very little to do with legalization and much more to do with economics.


From that article:

Quote:
The evidence that legalization actually hurts the black market:

"There are a couple of bits of evidence that I think are interesting. One is that there's been an increase in the number of really large seizures of cannabis that we've seen on the Mexican side of the border. What this suggests is that the cartels are finding it hard to shift their products north of the border. They're finding it harder to sell in the United States and so it's mounting up on the Mexican side.

"Another thing that we've seen recently is that the cartels using their drug smuggling tunnels to smuggle migrants instead. From an economic point of view, this doesn't make much sense. These tunnels are very very expensive assets and the migrant smuggling business is far less profitable than the drug smuggling business. So you have to ask yourself, why are the cartels risking these assets on a relatively low value business. The reason it seems is that the drug smuggling business is working a lot less than it used to be."


I think this is very encouraging. It looks like just a couple states are hurting the international drug cartels. I don't see how this could do anything except make violence go down. Imagine if the entire country becomes legal. I think we'd see a significantly different and better border.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Hall
United States
Oklahoma
flag msg tools
Batman was on mark with his first post. I would expand on that in a way, though. Marijuana being purchased legally in Colorado (and probably Washington as well) is being driven across state lines and sold on the black market in other states, such as Oklahoma. I would guess seizures of marijuana on highways are growing when it comes to the domestic-legalized stuff, shrinking when it comes to marijuana imported across the southern border. Now, marijuana being smuggled across the northern border is apparently suffering less of a hit (pun unintended but KEWL!) due to lesser border patrol activity there as well as terrain that offers more concealment.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
United States
Vancouver
Washington
flag msg tools
badge
Ami. Geek.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Doc Mage wrote:
Or we could all go looking for some more information like:
http://www.cpr.org/news/story/report-colorado-better-washing...

and could discuss that it has very little to do with legalization and much more to do with economics.


The OP explicitly asked us to not look it up before sharing our opinion.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Based on the fact it's dashi posting it, I'm betting the black market is larger.

So with that as a base: with legalization the entire pot market has grown enormously and that the black market has also grown because legal pot is either less convenient to buy than pot from local dealers (who probably deliver) or that legal pot is more expensive than black market pot since the grower doesn't have employees, brick and mortar shop, and is a smaller business so less likely to be robbed.

---
Spoiler (click to reveal)

Edit. Okay, looked it up and I missed taxes. Lack of taxes on the black market drives many black markets. The higher the taxes are, the more aggressive black market growth is.


 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Matthew Schoell
United States
Rochester
New York
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
ejmowrer wrote:
Doc Mage wrote:
Or we could all go looking for some more information like:
http://www.cpr.org/news/story/report-colorado-better-washing...

and could discuss that it has very little to do with legalization and much more to do with economics.


The OP explicitly asked us to not look it up before sharing our opinion.


Fair enough, I did assume that the OP intended to let us all know that it increased the black market and legalization was a mistake because of that transient and explainable consequence. I look forward to being proven wrong.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Walt
United States
Orange County
California
flag msg tools
Before terraforming Mars, Surviving Mars is required: Paradox Interactive; Steam.
badge
Please contact me about board gaming in Orange County.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Depends on your perspective: it's all black market under federal law.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Hall
United States
Oklahoma
flag msg tools
No doubt the feds will change their hands-off policy on this. Sessions said as much in his confirmation hearing. So much for the party of states' rights.
1 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
non sequitur
United States
Elk Point
South Dakota (SD)
flag msg tools
Mandelbrot/Simurgh hybrid etc etc
badge
I made both of these fractals, hurray!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Of course the black market is higher, why would you expect otherwise?

The penalty for getting caught just shot way down so the risks are considerably lower.

The economically conservative solution to this is to further deregulate the market so that it can compete more freely w/ the black market.
3 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls

Pennsylvania
msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
remorseless1 wrote:
No doubt the feds will change their hands-off policy on this. Sessions said as much in his confirmation hearing. So much for the party of states' rights.


Nancy's skeleton is blowing dust through her teeth, as she mutters one last time... "Justttt Saaaaay Nooooo!"

Jaw falls off.

Cut scene.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
remorseless1 wrote:
No doubt the feds will change their hands-off policy on this. Sessions said as much in his confirmation hearing. So much for the party of states' rights.


It's also a great way to disenfranchise a couple million democrats.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steven Woodcock
United States
Unspecified
Unspecified
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
In a resource-based marijuana economy there wouldn't be any prices that could correlate to "more" or "less" expensive.

Please investigate a resource-based marijuana economy.


Ferret
5 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Ian Liddle
United States
Sandpoint
Idaho
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
maxo-texas wrote:
remorseless1 wrote:
No doubt the feds will change their hands-off policy on this. Sessions said as much in his confirmation hearing. So much for the party of states' rights.


It's also a great way to disenfranchise a couple million democrats.
Good luck enforcing that without cooperation from the states... Sessions only has about 10k DEA agents for the whole country, whereas Colorado has 15k police officers.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Walt
United States
Orange County
California
flag msg tools
Before terraforming Mars, Surviving Mars is required: Paradox Interactive; Steam.
badge
Please contact me about board gaming in Orange County.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
So many states have legalized, I wonder if it would now be possible to challenge marijuana's schedule I classification?

(b) Placement on schedules; findings required Except where control is required by United States obligations under an international treaty, convention, or protocol, in effect on October 27, 1970, and except in the case of an immediate precursor, a drug or other substance may not be placed in any schedule unless the findings required for such schedule are made with respect to such drug or other substance. The findings required for each of the schedules are as follows:
(1) Schedule I.—
(A) The drug or other substance has a high potential for abuse.
(B) The drug or other substance has no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States.
(C) There is a lack of accepted safety for use of the drug or other substance under medical supervision.

(A), (B), and (C) are all false. We pretty much have a consensus on that:


Green, recreational use; blue, medical use, *=non-psychoactive varieties only
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_the_United_States#...

At some point, I would think the courts would have to actually consider the facts of the case, not just what DEA wants.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
David C
United States
Aurora
Colorado
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mb
TheDashi wrote:
Do you think the black market for marijuana has increased or decreased in CO after legalization?
Don't look it up, just guess and explain why.


So, dropping some economics on this one... in most states that aren't CO, it's $60 an 1/8th. You don't normally get the name of what you're getting, and it's of questionable quality even if you did.

In Colorado, in the bargain bin, you get the name, the potency, a lab test on the 6 substances THC, THCA, CBD, CBDN and... I forget what else... for $16 an 1/8th, out-the-door (tax is roughly 24%). Even the top shelf, not-bargain bin stuff, is $35 an 1/8th, out-the-door.

...and I can go to any dispensary within a 20 minute walk of my house. I have 2 to choose from.


So, black market, what?

EDIT: Now, that said, it's not hard to find a guy who knows a guy who grows here, either. But even then, you don't normally get to pick the strain that is grown, and it's like an ounce minimum, and if it's the most horrible stuff ever... not that I'd know.
----------

...also, we did north of 1 billion in weed last year. If you estimate ~200.00 an ounce, that puts it as 1,000,000,000/200 / 16 / 2000 ... 156 tons of stuff that only takes a fraction (about 0.8 grams works for most people not named 'Snoop' or 'Willie') to send you to the moon... trust me, it's not all staying in Colorado.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
David C
United States
Aurora
Colorado
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mb
remorseless1 wrote:
No doubt the feds will change their hands-off policy on this. Sessions said as much in his confirmation hearing. So much for the party of states' rights.


I don't have a lot of hope, I think you're right, but Sessions also said something about 'practicality'. He said from the perspective of being attorney general, he can't turn a blind eye to anything---which that's kind of what the policy has been under Loretta Lynch.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
David C
United States
Aurora
Colorado
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mb
If I can go off on a rant here... most people are fine with the insane taxes. We had three votes on the taxes. Once to get it legalized. Another to raise the taxes. A third when we had too much money from it and we needed to decide whether to refund it or not.

The refund would have been like $8 a person. It still was voted in favor of a whopping $8 by 27%. I could have seen like 5-10%, because, aliens. However, almost 30% would have rather had $8 than better schools and recreation.

Ok, I swear no more posts on this from me... well, for now.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.