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Subject: How much funding will Rising Sun raise through Kickstarter? rss

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Timothy Young
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On the opening day of the Kickstarter campaign began for Blood Rage, Kicktraq.com showed that the funding was trending towards a final amount of $2.5M. Looking back we can see that this was on overly optimistic estimate, with the true final amount coming in at just over $900K.



But this got me wondering whether I could use the ratio of the final tally of Blood Rage to its first-day trend estimate as a predictor of the final amount raised by Rising Sun.

The trouble is, when I took Blood Rage's ratio of final amount to initial trend, which comes out to roughly 0.36, and multiply it by Rising Sun's initial trend of $37M, I come up with an absurdly high amount of $13M! Even with all the hype going around right now, I seriously doubt the Rising Sun Kickstarter campaign will pull in that much money.



But maybe I'm wrong. Kingdom Death Monster 1.5 pulled in nearly that much. So what do you think? Will Rising Sun's Kickstarter campaign raise $13M? If not, how much do you think it will raise?

Poll
How much funding will the current Rising Sun Kickstarter campaign raise?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
$1,700,000
1.5% 5
$2,000,000
11.3% 39
$3,000,000
34.9% 120
$4,000,000
23.0% 79
$5,000,000
12.5% 43
$6,000,000
6.1% 21
$7,000,000
1.7% 6
$8,000,000
2.9% 10
$9,000,000
1.2% 4
$10,000,000
1.2% 4
$11,000,000
0.6% 2
$12,000,000
0.3% 1
$13,000,000
0.3% 1
$15,000,000
0.3% 1
$18,000,000
0.3% 1
$20,000,000
0.0% 0
$25,000,000
0.3% 1
$30,000,000
0.0% 0
$35,000,000
1.7% 6
Voters 344
This poll is now closed.   344 answers
Poll created by TIM0THY
Closes: Tue Apr 4, 2017 6:00 am
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Stephen Eckman
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BG.EXE
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Nowhere near 13M. KDM's average pledge was over $650, plus those trends never continue for more than a couple days. Kicktraq even says things to this effect on their site. There's always a huge spike on Day 1-2, and another spike on the last couple days.

I'd say 4M is optimistic. They'd need to sell over 100,000 copies to get to 13M, and that's assuming they sell a TON of add ons AND the add ons are expensive once added. It'd take, obviously, 130,000 copies with no add ons.
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N. P. P.
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My guess is 3.5 million, so I rounded up to 4 million.

What would interest me as far as a comparison to Blood Rage is concerned, is how the stretch goals compare. Even though Blood Rage only got 60% of the funding Rising Sun is at after 24 hours, there were more stretch goals unlocked for Blood Rage than there currently are for Rising Sun.
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Timothy Young
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Skippy668 wrote:
... there were more stretch goals unlocked for Blood Rage than there currently are for Rising Sun.


To me, this suggests that CMON anticipated from the get-go that the total funding for Rising Sun would be much higher than for Blood Rage, and adjusted the spacing of the stretch goals accordingly.
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Thaddeus MacTaggart
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~2.3M I think.
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Allan Morstein
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Skippy668 wrote:
Even though Blood Rage only got 60% of the funding Rising Sun is at after 24 hours, there were more stretch goals unlocked for Blood Rage than there currently are for Rising Sun.


At the end of day 2, Blood Rage had unlocked 10 (of 28) stretch goals. As of this time, Rising Sun has unlocked 23 stretch goals. If you assume that CMON will maintain roughly the same pace (something they're pretty good at), that would put the final stretch goal count at around 64.
 
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Richard Sampson
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I think we are looking at 20-25k backers total. More than that would be unprecedented for CMON, and I don't think this game has that kind of appeal. That puts us at about $2.5 million, maybe a little extra if there are a lot of retailer backers. I figure there will be $50-100 in add-ons so probably $1 million extra there. With that, I fully expect $3-4 million, and I would be extremely surprised if it got more than that.

BTW KD:M raised about 3.5x what Rising Sun made on Day 1. So if you figure if RS followed a similar pattern, it would end up about 3.5x lower, or ~$3.5 million (just as the evaluation above would suggest).
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ras2124 wrote:
BTW KD:M raised about 3.5x what Rising Sun made on Day 1. So if you figure if RS followed a similar pattern, it would end up about 3.5x lower, or ~$3.5 million (just as the evaluation above would suggest).


I agree with you overall, but am more optimistic.

ras2124 wrote:
I think we are looking at 20-25k backers total. More than that would be unprecedented for CMON, and I don't think this game has that kind of appeal. That puts us at about $2.5 million, maybe a little extra if there are a lot of retailer backers.


I disagree. This is the first game from CMON that has appealed to me at all. And I love pirate and steampunk themes.

In 2 days, RS is close to doubling the number of backers that Massive Darkness got in its first 2 days. RS is at 16,000+ backers and the day still has 5 hours to go.

ras2124 wrote:
With that, I fully expect $3-4 million, and I would be extremely surprised if it got more than that.


I think you’re in for being extremely surprised.

Looking at trends over a lot of different games, most of the successful launches manage 3x of their Day 1 take. Other games have managed higher multipliers, but that’s likely due to word of mouth over the course of the campaign for less well known designers/publishers, plus lower overall average pledges.

I put the closing day total at 3.75-4.5M, not including add-ons. However, I would not be surprised if it went well over that uneducated guesstimate.
 
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Isaac Wilkinson
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I completely agree. This is my first CMON KS despite having a look through previous ones, they've never quite right. This actually looks like a good game, rather than just a bunch of models. I'm expecting closer to 7, maybe 8 at a push
 
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Aaron Hannigan
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I'm thinking 4.5 million.

I'd like to look more at it, but it seems like a project funds its first third in the first 24 hours. This was at least true from KDM.
 
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Thaddeus MacTaggart
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It will also depend on the number of add-ons, which usually give the KS a good boost.

For instance: most probably there will be an add-on with 2 extra clans.
Another add-on: metal coins pack.

Let's see how it goes. BR didn't have a lot of add-ons but if you look at the guest boxes in Zombicide ..
 
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Sean D.
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Under 3 million. But any way you look at it, its a success out of the gate.
 
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Paul Wright
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I think 3million is sensible. Zombicide: Black Plague had so many add-ons to reach 4mill, but I doubt the add-ons will add more than 750k for Rising Sun. I reckon it's likely to beat Massive Darkness in units, so probably 23k-25k units.

It's interesting that RS swamped Z:BP on the first day, but slowed down far more by day 3. Unless there's a massive rush this evening I think RS is going to be a much slower campaign. Still, looks like we should get a SG announcement every day or two at this rate.
 
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Timothy Young
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Looks like Massive Darkness pulled in $791K on its first day, with 7K backers, while Rising Sun raised $1,280K with just under 13K backers.

Massive Darkness backers appear to have pledged an average of ~$160 apiece, while the current average for Rising Sun backers is ~$98.

Massive Darkness' first-day pledges amounted to ~%22 of their total funding.

What does this all mean? Who knows, but I'm inclined to think that Rising Sun is on track to exceed Massive Darkness' total funding, with an excess of $5M seeming quite plausible. Time will tell if that guess plays out.
 
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Michael W

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My guess: over 4 million. First day funds were well over Massive Darkness which capped out at 3.5. But it also depends how many add-ons they include. MD had a lot to push the funding up. Currently, Rising Sun is fueled solely by new backers.
 
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Chris
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10 Trillion dollars.
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William Chew
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I really underestimated it initially. Probably 3.5-4 million in the end. Last 48 hours are intense and add ons haven't been revealed yet.
 
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Greg Burbidge
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It's already almost 2M, 2 days in.

Making the expansion clan a KS exclusive is pretty interesting. I have never KS'd a CMON before, but will likely this time around. Especially with the new clan being revealed as a KS exclusive.

The slow rollout of exclusives will change how the model works vs other KSers that reveal all content at the beginning. The traditional model makes it so I don't really track a campaign other than first day and last day. I'll track this all along to see what's revealed.

I've been tempted to pledge early (normally I'm a late pledger). It seems like we have to surpass a couple to reveal the next ones. If I give money early, I help reveal the exclusive content.

gb
 
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Allan Morstein
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gregburbidge wrote:
I'll track this all along to see what's revealed.
...
I've been tempted to pledge early (normally I'm a late pledger). It seems like we have to surpass a couple to reveal the next ones. If I give money early, I help reveal the exclusive content.


I'm pretty sure that this is exactly what CMON's model is intended to encourage. It people back early and follow the progress regularly they're more likely to keep talking about, which means more exposure.

But, there's also a secondary benefit to this model. By only releasing two at a time, they can adjust the thresholds for the others as the campaign progresses. If they had anticipated a slower growth and announced all of their prepared stretch goals on Day 1, they might have already met them. On the other hand, if growth was slow, they might end up not meeting some stretch goals that they had really intended to provide.

Is it manipulative? Sure. But it's also effective.
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Timothy Young
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$6M is looking more and more possible. I'm thinking final funding will be right around $5.5M.
 
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Allan Morstein
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I've been trying to do some analysis of the stretch goals to try to figure out what CMON thinks the end number will be.

I'm starting with the assumption that we will average one stretch goal per day through the end of the campaign. It might be a little less than that, but I suspect that some zero-stretch-goal days will be evened out by the days that add-ons are announced. In any case, that assumption gives us 16 more stretch goals.

If they keep the current stretch goal spacing ($120K), that puts the final total at $4.3M. But, CMON always accelerates the stretch goal spacing throughout the course of a campaign. If you assume that they'll increase the spacing by $20K every 3 stretch goals, that brings the total up just under $1M to $5.2M.

I suspect the higher number is a little ambitious and we'll see longer spans of the same spacing down the stretch, but >$5M looks like a strong possibility.
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