Rich Keiser
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The non-partisan CBO has weighed in.

Under the House GOP RepubliCare bill...24 million LESS uninsured Americans within the next decade. 14 million by 2018.

Hey, America... this is what you elected.

Hope the rich throw you a few dollars of their 274 BILLION dollars they are going to rake in over the next decade, thanks to Paul Ryan and his partners in crime via the repeal bill.

Wow. Just, Wow.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/cbo-gop-obamacare-repe...

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They should call it the Reverse Robin Hood Bill. Steal from the poor to give to the wealthy.
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Trump and his minions are trying to discredit the CBO projections.

Too bad it turns out their own analysis says 26 million will lose their health insurance!

White House analysis of Obamacare repeal sees even deeper insurance losses than CBO
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Professor of Pain
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to which this is the perfect response:
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Scott O'Brien
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Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.
 
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Yes, it is as simple as that whistle. Obamacare was an unmitigated success and Trumpcare will be an unmitigated disaster!
... or you could, you know, actually inform people of why the ACA wasn't the panacea that some pretend, or what (if any) portions of Trumpcare are preferable.

Or, hey, you could just trot out a one-liner with a whistle emoji and pretend like you're contributing.
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Seriously though if this makes the average premium for the average American go down it might be popular regardless of how many are left uninsured. Stories like that can very easily be ignored by voters on the right as sad stories that illustrate lack of sufficient virtue / hard work.
 
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rylfrazier wrote:
Seriously though if this makes the average premium for the average American go down it might be popular regardless of how many are left uninsured. Stories like that can very easily be ignored by voters on the right as sad stories that illustrate lack of sufficient virtue / hard work.


The calculation on how the average premium PAID goes down is purely based on how many older people are priced out of the market entirely. Cynically, you might be right. Except older people also tend to vote Republican. Cognitive dissonance alone could drive them to the emergency room.
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sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:

Yes, it is as simple as that whistle. Obamacare was an unmitigated success and Trumpcare will be an unmitigated disaster!

Sean, I don't recall anyone saying that the ACA was an "unmitigated success", in fact many admit it has its problems. So why didn't the Republicans work around the problems? Maybe so they can thump their chests and say "look what we wrought!".

Now, according to all we've heard from unbiased sources, the rich don't want to put into the pool so that the poor can afford the health care that could mean life of death for them or their children. Thump, thump, thump--look what we've wrought!

In case it isn't clear, ALL insurance works this way--the lucky pay to help out the unlucky. Car insurance goes up when there are lots of accidents, house insurance goes up when there are lots of disasters, and health care goes up when greedy companies charge more than is necessary for services and products (oh, yes, and when many people get sick, too).
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The worst part was seeing all of those people suddenly realize that ObamaCare WAS the Affordable Care Act, and the reason they could finally afford passable insurance. I know some people like to mock their misfortune and call it karmic payback for their ignorance, but nobody should be without affordable, dependable insurance. The machine uses these people and their frustrations as fuel, and then discards them like husks once the votes are in.

I'm curious to see how many members of Congress decide to ditch their own health plans to take part in this exciting new system. After all, how could they possibly miss out on all of the exciting freedom and choice that working people will get to savor?
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Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.


    Yeah, this new plan has providers scared out of their wits. They're going back to indigent patients and a need to charge those that can pay more to cover the gap.

    Obamacare was a bullshit idea based on The Heritage Foundation's work for the Dole '96 campaign. It was a GOP plan to begin with. It's a sign how far right the country has moved that it's seen as socialized medicine now. What's actually a huge slice of corporate welfare has been deemed a socialist plot.

    The Democrats have been so quiet about this. So quiet. If that's not a warning sign for Republicans I don't know what is.

             S.

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Indeed it seems the Left should be jumping for joy because the Right is pretty much on board with the idea that it is the Federal government's job to provide healtcare cheap health insurance. The rest is just like the man who sexually propositioned a woman who agreed for a million dollars but balked at on offer of one dollar with "What kind of woman do you think I am?!" to which the man replied, "We've already established what kind of woman you are. Now we are just haggling over price."
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Sagrilarus wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.


    Yeah, this new plan has providers scared out of their wits. They're going back to indigent patients and a need to charge those that can pay more to cover the gap.

    Obamacare was a bullshit idea based on The Heritage Foundation's work for the Dole '96 campaign. It was a GOP plan to begin with. It's a sign how far right the country has moved that it's seen as socialized medicine now. What's actually a huge slice of corporate welfare has been deemed a socialist plot.

    The Democrats have been so quiet about this. So quiet. If that's not a warning sign for Republicans I don't know what is.

             S.



This is the trap Republicans crafted, armed, slipped into, and engaged all by themselves.

Watching a corpse get exsanguinated in an Iron Maiden is never a pretty sight.

But lo and behold, here we are watching.
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Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.



Well then... mandate away.

So maybe we should make it mandatory that you have to pay for...
Dental, Vision, Full Auto, unemployment insurance, term life, whole life, Homeowners / Renters, Fire, Flood, Earthquake,

because you never know when any of those might happen to you... and society can't afford to help you when one of these events randomly affects you and you can't pay...

...

What that? you don't need all those types of insurance? you cant afford to pay all that?

...

OR you could accept the fact that young healthy people are willing to take the risk of not paying for health insurance because they dont need it or they don't want to pay for it... because the risk vs reward for them is not high enough.
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sao123 wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.



Well then... mandate away.

So maybe we should make it mandatory that you have to pay for...
Dental, Vision, Full Auto, unemployment insurance, term life, whole life, Homeowners / Renters, Fire, Flood, Earthquake,

because you never know when any of those might happen to you... and society can't afford to help you when one of these events randomly affects you and you can't pay...

...

What that? you don't need all those types of insurance? you cant afford to pay all that?

...

OR you could accept the fact that young healthy people are willing to take the risk of not paying for health insurance because they dont need it or they don't want to pay for it... because the risk vs reward for them is not high enough.


You missed the point entirely. Society pays when people skimp because hospitals will *not* simply eat a loss. They inflate prices to cover the risk of no-pays, and they guess high rather than low, because they can always pocket the overage.

To use an analogy for you, which is smarter? Putting away money before your car needs to be replaced, or waiting untill it does then twking out a high interest loan for it?
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The CBO report states that the 14 million expected to leave by 2018 will consist of those who didn't want insurance in the first place but got it because of the mandate and others due to a rise in premiums. I don't like that the CBO doesn't differentiate between the two groups, because I think that number is important, but there are some who will lose insurance simply because they don't want it.

Personally, I not a fan of the individual mandate. However, I'm also not a fan of the fact that people without insurance can get care that they can't pay for or weren't insured for and then declare bankruptcy to not pay their debt sticking the rest of us with the bill.

Either healthcare debt should be like student loan debt and not subject to bankruptcy protection (that would require healthcare loans to be guaranteed by a federal agency - probably not popular) or those who choose to go without insurance should sign a waiver or form that stipulates that they are aware that they won't be assisted if they need medical care unless they can pay up front.

I favor the latter and think that would get more people on private insurance or Medicare/Medicaid than an individual mandate.
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Am I wrong in thinking that the GOP's intent, wrongheaded or not, actually is for the individual states to take over this making the uninsured insured? I mean sure, they aren't really making a great case for an insured transition. Not to mention, if your individual State takes over the cost, it still has to be paid by someone. So either you are going to pay your State to help insure the uninsured or people will lose their insurance. But, it's not like they are actually forcing people to lose their insurance. Aren't block grants supposed to help the States transition these people?

Look, I think their plan sucks and is dumb, but we should be realistic in our criticisms. Don't want to come off too strident or we'll get dismissed as sour grapes.
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rylfrazier wrote:
Seriously though if this makes the average premium for the average American go down it might be popular regardless of how many are left uninsured. Stories like that can very easily be ignored by voters on the right as sad stories that illustrate lack of sufficient virtue / hard work.

Actually, premiums would increase significantly over the next couple years
Quote:
The CBO also estimates that premiums for individual health plans in next year and in 2019 would on average be 15 to 20 percent higher than what they would be under Obamacare.

But by 2026, average premiums would be about 10 percent lower than they would be if Obamacare remained intact, the office said.

However, that would just an average, and there would be wide variation in premiums across different age groups, because the bill would allow insurers to charge older customers up to five times the premiums charged to younger customers. A 21-year-old customer in 2026, for example, would see premiums that would be 20 to 25 percent lower than under Obamacare, but a 64-year-old would be looking at premiums that would be 20 to 25 percent higher, the CBO said.
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sao123 wrote:
OR you could accept the fact that young healthy people are willing to take the risk of not paying for health insurance because they dont need it or they don't want to pay for it... because the risk vs reward for them is not high enough.
Except it's not a "fact" that young people are taking a "risk." At least not a meaningful risk. If they get hurt or sick they can still get care. Then they default on the bill when they get slapped with it. Since they're young, the hit to their credit rating only stays on their report for, what, 7 years? By the time they're ready to take responsibility for themselves, their credit report is back to neutral (it probably doesn't have anything positive on it either) and they can get on with their lives. The rest of society having paid their bill.

So can you accept the fact that medical care in the US is already socialized for the uninsured, just in the worst possible way?
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sao123 wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.



Well then... mandate away.

So maybe we should make it mandatory that you have to pay for...
Dental, Vision, Full Auto, unemployment insurance, term life, whole life, Homeowners / Renters, Fire, Flood, Earthquake,

because you never know when any of those might happen to you... and society can't afford to help you when one of these events randomly affects you and you can't pay...

...

What that? you don't need all those types of insurance? you cant afford to pay all that?

...

OR you could accept the fact that young healthy people are willing to take the risk of not paying for health insurance because they dont need it or they don't want to pay for it... because the risk vs reward for them is not high enough.


If you own a car, auto insurance is mandatory in most (all?) states.
As long as you have a mortgage on your house, home insurance (and even payment insurance) are required on your home.
If you live in an area with risk of flood, you are required to own flood insurance.

Those are all because everyone else ultimately has to cover your costs if you are not insured in those ways.

The problem with health insurance is that everyone pays the bill if you don't have insurance and the bills exceed your payment ability. And everyone relies on that backstop and runs up excessive bills at hospitals that could have been inexpensively prevented. And it's not sustainable either. We need badly to get health care away from employment because it highly incents age discrimination which causes unemployment and lower income for people over 50 years old which lowers tax revenues and drives up public safety net costs.

I agree that we can't afford unlimited health care benefits for all citizens. But we can decide how much we are going to pay and provide the health care benefits that will cover. Then people can rely on private health insurance for costs in excess of that model but it's a much smaller market.

The problem is that the republican approach is to lie like crazy to their base and then pass a bill that takes away healthcare from their base while giving hundreds of billions of dollars to 1% of the population. It's incredibly callous.
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sao123 wrote:
Statements


Well, here is the thing that you can bet on in life:

1. Getting sick
2. Dying


There is no "Well if this happens" paradigm in health care.

If you think so, then you are either very young and naive, old and haven't learned, immortal, or lucky.

The former is OK, because you will learn reality soon enough.
If the second, I'm sorry for you.
The third, well spread some of your God magic on the mortals.
If the latter, congratulations... you are the Unicorn.
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Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
sao123 wrote:
Its time to stop treating it as if the raw number of insured actually matters.

sure there will be 24Million less insured...
16 Million of them never wanted insurance to begin with and would voluntarily drop the mandated coverage if they could.

So that leaves the number closer to 8 million of actual uninsured.


And we still have to pick uo the tab for their bills when they go in due to accident and can't pay. Individual mandate is as much about financial planning on a societal level as it is coverage.



Well then... mandate away.

So maybe we should make it mandatory that you have to pay for...
Dental, Vision, Full Auto, unemployment insurance, term life, whole life, Homeowners / Renters, Fire, Flood, Earthquake,

because you never know when any of those might happen to you... and society can't afford to help you when one of these events randomly affects you and you can't pay...

...

What that? you don't need all those types of insurance? you cant afford to pay all that?

...

OR you could accept the fact that young healthy people are willing to take the risk of not paying for health insurance because they dont need it or they don't want to pay for it... because the risk vs reward for them is not high enough.


You missed the point entirely. Society pays when people skimp because hospitals will *not* simply eat a loss. They inflate prices to cover the risk of no-pays, and they guess high rather than low, because they can always pocket the overage.

To use an analogy for you, which is smarter? Putting away money before your car needs to be replaced, or waiting untill it does then twking out a high interest loan for it?


no you have missed the point...

The smartest choice is not paying for unnecessary insurance when you have other bills/debts to pay. Saving for the future is stupid if it means racking up credit debt simultaneously...

Most young people who are just getting started are living paycheck to paycheck and can't afford the extra for your mandate. Why cause them to be unnecessarily burdened with debt for an accident which *might or might not* happen?
 
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