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Subject: CBO Estimate on the AHCA rss

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Ken
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It's out, and I don't think it will make the case the Republicans want it to make.

Two huge problems that I can see with getting this through the Senate:

1. The dramatic increase in the number of uninsured, particularly among the poorest Americans, will simply be a non-starter for too many Senators. This will include some Republicans in states that accepted the Medicaid expansion.

2. The lack of an answer to the problems (like #1) pointed out by the analysis - the AHCA simply doesn't provide any way to gauge how the eventual replacement will work.

I'm sure that we will hear a great deal about the deficit reduction impacts (which are OK, but hardly impressive - $337 billion over a decade isn't a massive reduction over ten years). But that's really going to miss the mark - without a good response for how people will actually get health care (the "access" line isn't going to play in the long run), this is not looking good for the bill.

The GOP needs to put the replacement part that follows the repeal in motion or this could be a loss.
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Junior McSpiffy
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I agree with what you said. I would rather the ACA have insured the uninsured AND reduced health care costs instead of enabling them to skyrocket, but it didn't. But now we have millions of people on the books, dependent upon the government. For better or worse, there they are, and now we have an obligation to them. Just cutting them loose again after we've made promises is not acceptable. Regrettable that it came to that, creating further dependence, but now that it's there, it's on us. Another way has to be found.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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Only a single idea occurs to me
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Professor of Pain
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CBO score is bad, bad, bad:
14 million lose insurance by 2018
21 million lose insurance by 2020
24 million lose insurance by 2026
52 million total uninsured by 2026 (that's 6 million more than before Obamacare became law)
$880 billion cut from Medicaid by 2026
15 percent of Planned Parenthood patients would lose access to care
64-year-old making $26,500 would pay $14,600 for insurance in 2026 ($1,700 under Obamacare)
Premiums will increase by 15 to 20 percent
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Leo Zappa
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maxo-texas wrote:
Only a single idea occurs to me


I agree that a true single payer system is the only real answer here. We just better hope that the next four years go quickly, with the damage minimized to the greatest extent possible, and then, that this country comes to its fucking senses and elects a grown-up to replace this idiot and his goon squad. Obamacare is flawed, sure, but this POS plan being proposed as a replacement is a catastrophe waiting to happen! Hopefully Congress, despite usually being next to useless, will not allow this grotesque bill to pass.
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Ken
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Elfbane wrote:
Premiums will increase by 15 to 20 percent


Yeah, this part is truly a disaster, because it's for 2018-20. So not only do people lose coverage, the cost of coverage for those that do pay for it will go up at high rates as well.

But I'm trying not to poison the well here. There's sooooo much in there that's just bad news, hard to sell, and probably DOA in the Senate.

Of course, the GOP leadership and Sec. Price are already saying that the analysis isn't accurate because it doesn't include all the awesome things that they'll do after this bill is passed. Which is a particularly stupid thing, IMO. If you've got all this awesomeness in store, why isn't it legislation now? If all of this awesomeness will reverse the many bad things in the CBO report, why not put together the legislative language and have the CBO say that?

If the replacement is already known, put it in motion and do it right now.
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Wendell
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Si non potes reperire Berolini in tabula, ludens essetis non WIF.
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Ironically, the White House's internal estimate was 26 million would lose insurance. Yet they're slamming CBO...
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Professor of Pain
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wifwendell wrote:
Ironically, the White House's internal estimate was 26 million would lose insurance. Yet they're slamming CBO...

White House analysis of Obamacare repeal sees even deeper insurance losses than CBO
Quote:
The executive branch analysis forecast that 26 million people would lose coverage over the next decade, versus the 24 million CBO estimates. The White House has made efforts to discredit the forecasts from the nonpartisan CBO.
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Tom McVey
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wifwendell wrote:
Ironically, the White House's internal estimate was 26 million would lose insurance. Yet they're slamming CBO...


...but it got leaked anyway. Bannon is pushing Paul Ryan in front of the bus.
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