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Comanchería: The Rise and Fall of the Comanche Empire» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Raiding - success probabilities rss

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Mike W
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I was interested in seeing how the probabilities of getting at least one success result vary depending on the number of 'Success' counters and 'Enemy AP' counters that are already out of the cup. Unfortunately I can't work out how to post Excel tables easily on BGG, so here are some of the rules of thumb that I found:

For a '3 strength' check its usually worthwhile with 6 or less success draws out of the cup. (Probability of a success is 60% or greater)

For a '2 strength' check count up the number of AP counters removed. If the number of successes removed is no more than 1 greater than this number then there is a 70%+ probability of getting a success.

For a '1 strength' check unless there are 3 more AP counters out than success counters out, your probability of getting a success is less than 50%.

A couple of interesting strategy points that this raises:

1) You're better attaching your Mahimiana to lower strength bands for raiding purposes, as the increase in success probability is far more significant.

2) Optimal order for raiding could be '2 strength' bands first, followed by '3 strength' bands, and only using '1 strength' bands if you pull far more AP counters than successes earlier in the round.

I've only played 3 times on the early scenario and no wins yet (but I haven't tried again since I did this analysis).

I'm sure there are more complex strategy considerations as well, but in the first scenario I found that I wanted to understand better how likely I was to add a 'Ravaged' token after a raid. Interested to know what other opinions are on this topic.
 
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Jacob Williams
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The probabilities are actually relatively easy to calculate using a classical probability model. The formula would be:

1 - ((S nCr 0)(A nCr X)/((S + A) nCr X))

S = number of Success chits available
A = number of enemy APs available
X = number of chits to be drawn
0 = zero
nCr = is the mathematical "choose" operation

If you want multiple draws in a row, adjust the numbers and multiply them out since they have to happen all in a row.
 
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Also, once you get Warfare 2 you may consider just raiding with 1 strength bands. You will get 2-4 draws w/ mahimiana depending on your dice roll. I would actually prefer just 2 draws, but the mahimiana needs to be there to get the success tokens for medicine increases. The advantage of 1 strength bands is that you can raid for 1MP and it only costs 1AP to get another 6MP.
 
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champalaune christ
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What can I do when I can't choose between my right brain and my left brain ?
 
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