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Initial Thoughts
Now that the Axis have a foothold in Great Britain itself, it is only a matter of time until the Axis defeat Great Britain. There’s a chance that GB could hold on until the USA enters the war, but realistically that shouldn’t happen. There are a couple of ways that GB could survive.

So far there have not been any attacks rolling the deadly (for the attacker) 4, 6 combo. If there were some 2:1 German attacks that rolled a 4, 6 combo that resulted in massive German casualties followed by the British rolling well on 1:1 attacks on the British follow-up turn, then GB could possibly survive. The odds of that happening are very low indeed (approximately 1%).

Another possible way things could turn around in Great Britain would be if the Germans decide speed is more important and they start to risk 1:1 attacks. If the Germans risk 1:1 attacks and rolled a 5 a couple of times then maybe the British could survive long enough for the USA to enter and save the British from defeat. Nevertheless, even if there were 1:1 attacks resulting in German casualties, the British navy is gone and the Italian navy will be coming out of the Med to help fight in the west now that Suez is captured. Even if Great Britain survives long enough for the USA entry, can the USA navy succeed against the combined navies of Italy and Germany?

Why would Germany decide speed is more important? Well, consider the possibilities…

Best Case Scenario = 2 turn conquer of GB
The Germans don’t yet have the ability to take London this turn without risking permanent death to the airborne and why would they do that when they’re getting this double turn? Best case scenario for the Germans is they amasse a sizeable force in GB this winter 1940 turn. It will then take the Germans a minimum of 2 turns to conquer GB (meaning GB falls in Summer 1941). But, a huge chunk of the German army and air force will be tied up in GB and it is needed on the east before Russia can declare war. Even with a 2 turn conquer of GB (best case scenario) it will still take the axis at least 2 turns to transport and SR its units east to the border of Russia. That means that in the best case scenario, Germany defeats GB in Summer, and is fully ready for Russia in its Winter 1941 turn. Which means, Germany won’t be fully ready for full on attacks on Russia until Spring 1942. The problem here is that Russia gets all its powerful units in Spring 1942. There’s no room for error.

More Realistic Scenario = 3 turns to conquer GB
If the Germans amasse troops in Winter inside GB and then take 3 turns to conquer GB they will be able to guarantee 2:1 attacks all the way into London and the Germans will be able to continue to SR units into GB through Rosyth or Scapa Flow every turn. But, if it takes 3 turns (e.g. GB is defeated in Fall 1941) then Russia could potentially enter the war before Germany can fully build its defenses. With it still taking 1 to 2 turns to SR German units and air force out of GB, Germany won’t be fully ready for Russia until Winter 1941 or Spring 1942. The USA enters in Spring 1942 and Germany could find itself having to fight a fully buffed Russia and still spending valuable resources trying to defend against the USA in the west.

Worse Case Scenario = Germany rolls 4,6 combo and doesn’t defeat GB
The worst case scenario is Germany spends a bunch of money building boats, but doesn’t conquer GB because it rolls the 4, 6 combo. You can’t control the dice, so if that happens, it happens. In the worst case scenario, GB somehow survives and Russia enters the war while Germany has its army tied up (and unable to help defend the German homeland).

That’s how I see the game as it stands at the beginning of this turn. If the German sees it this way too, then he may opt to risk a 2 turn conquer of GB. That’s a tough decision for the German.

Additionally, Russia is sitting pretty on the BRP situation. Since Germany won’t declare war on Russia until Winter 1941 (earliest), if Russia does nothing, then it will grow permanently by a TON of BRPs for the 1942 YSS. That could spell long-term problems for Germany. But, those potential problems can be ameliorated if GB can be knocked out of the game. If GB falls, then the extra BRPs for Germany from GB, coupled with problems for the USA to open a second front are worth it for Germany to take out GB.

Germany takes an offensive in the west and now has 38 BRPs, and attritions in the med and east. Italy passes in the west and east, and attritions in the med.

The 8 fleet on Wilhelmshaven is designated for supply.

The German and Lent-Italian infantry from Scapa Flow move south 3 hexes. The airborne moves north from Manchester towards Rosyth and takes some territory south of Rosyth. There is still a British 1 RC unit on Rosyth, but probably not for long.

Ten factors worth of the German air force land on Manchester. The rest of the german infantry finish taking territory in France and all of the combined air forces of Germany and Italy/Lent move to border cities like Antwerp, Hague, Calais, and Dieppe in order to support the Germans as much as possible.

Meanwhile, in Africa, the Italian tank moves into Morocco.

Italy finishes conquest of Syria/Lebanon with the infantry and finishes conquest of Iraq with the Italian tank (displacing the remaining 1-4 British air unit which dies because it has no place to flee to).

Finally, in Poland, the Germans begin to form a line of infantry backed by a line of tanks every-other-space.

Here’s the whole map before missions are declared:

Here’s France/GB:

*Note: There is a British RC unit on Great Yarmouth that is completely obstructed by the stack on Calais.

Here’s Poland:

Here’s West Africa:

Here’s East Africa:

The only air/naval missions are 7 of the 10 air on Manchester perform counterair on the British air in Wales. The remaining 3 air on Manchester provide Ground Support on Rosyth, which will be attacked by the airborne at 6:2 or 3:1 odds. The rest of the German airforce on the main continent are unused this turn.

The germans have a numerical advantage on the counterair and roll a modified 8 vs. the British lousy 2. GB loses all 5 air and the Germans lose only 2.

On Rosyth the battle goes back and forth for 4 rolls before the RC unit finally dies. We rolled a 2, 3, 2, 5 on the 3:1 column. The British fleet is displaced to Great Yarmouth and the airborne takes the port of Rosyth.

Construction and SR
Italy builds a 1-3 infantry on Taranto for 1 BRP and ends with 0. Germany builds its 4th fleet on Wilhelmshaven for 27 BRPs, a tank for 8 BRPs, and an infantry for 3 BRPs, spending a total of 38 and ending with 0.

Germany sends 2 tanks into GB. The first goes to Manchester and the second to Rosyth. Because Manchester is an objective hex I won’t be able to attrition him out of that (even if I roll high enough on my turn), and he has another unit with the airborne and protecting the port.

Italy sends another airbase up against the Russian line and sends more units into NE Iraq, where, I assume that once the Russians are at war with the Germans, that the Italians will move into Persia.

Here’s the whole map after SR:

*Note: there is a British RC unit on Great Yarmouth and a British fleet there that are obstructed by the expanded stack on Calais.

Final Thoughts
The Axis will end 1940 with the following conquered: France, Netherlands, Belgium, and Poland. Germany still hasn’t taken Luxembourg or Denmakr.

Italy has conquered Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Transjordan, Palestine, Iraq (worth 0), and Lebanon-Syria. Those extra BRPs will help Italy fund Germany’s war effort.

The situation in Great Britain is looking dire for the British. Although they will get to go in Winter they can only attrition. They can’t push the Germans out of Manchester because it is an objective.

The British strategy at this point was to try to slow down the Germans as much as possible and hope the Germans make a mistake. If Germany messes up, GB might still be defeated, but she could seriously hurt the Germans in the process. GB still has Gibraltar, and so it will be a while until the Italians can make it into the West to help the Germans. GB will have to strategically decide when, and where to use its fleets to try to stop the Germans should the Germans decide for a sea transport mission instead of SRing units into GB every turn.
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