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Mare Nostrum: Empires» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Greece : Attacking Troy, a Dangerous move ? rss

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Félix Beaudouin
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Hello folks !

I am contemplating Greeks openings right now and, if Persia has conquered Troy and built a Fortress and a Legion there on its first turn, it seems really Dangerous for Greece to try to invade on the first turn.

Greece would go +2 Legions for a total of 4 + one trireme to go to Troy.
That is 4 dices to roll a 15. That is highly feasible... but it can fail... much more so than 3 legions Vs a Fortress...

And if you fail, ouch ! you lose one or maybe even two legions... and the fortress will remain and since Persia probably plays after you in the millitary phase (otherwise the Legion from Cilicia would have probably already reinforced Troy) the Legion from Cilicia can come in and you will lose another Legion or two and the Fortress will probably remain !

And on the second turn, you run the risk of not beeing able to pump out three units while Hamourabi will be able to... you are doomed and your early game is shattered. You are left with a secondary role for a long time from then...

What do you think ?
How would you proceed if you REALLY want Troy ?
 
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clovis chan
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Deathpact wrote:
How would you proceed if you REALLY want Troy ?


Are you talking about getting Troy strictly on turn 1? Then the trivial answer will be the 4 legions as you mentioned above.

I'll highlight a rule of thumb which is that (for enemy HP <5) it is likely to win attacking a land with enemy HP + 1 legion and guaranteed with a +2. Enemy legions are worth 1 hp while fortress is worth 2 hp. So as you mentioned, your 4 legions are likely to win, but can fail. Just wanna share my useful rule of thumb.

If the broader question is on which turn you should attack Troy, I'll say in mid-late game when pillaging it can allow you to build 1 more unit. I say mid-late because in that stage most of the caravans/cities in your controlled lands are already built and so losing legions provide an outlet to spend. Or when setting up for end game (be it coin or legendary city).

I'll not comment on the soundness of attacking Troy turn 1, unless that's a direction you want to go into


 
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Félix Beaudouin
France
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Well it seemed like an Ok move (like attacking 3 vs 1 fortress) but it is not. So i think your rule of thumb is a tad insufficient here. The probability of failure is Much much higher in the second case !

The meaning of my question would be more general since going for it turn one seems hazardous to say the least... like tossing a coin almost... and even if you win the first round you are not sure to have won for good if Persia decides to keep fighting...

So yeah i guess inland development is the way to go then ... Market in Macedonia seems like a good turn one to me...
 
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Dan Carey
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I'd assume that the Persians would have tried to build Jerusalem, and if they did, then Troy would be open. Of course, if they did not, then yes they'd probably go to Troy.
 
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Thaddeus MacTaggart
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Deathpact wrote:
Greece would go +2 Legions for a total of 4 + one trireme to go to Troy.
That is 4 dices to roll a 15. That is highly feasible... but it can fail... much more so than 3 legions Vs a Fortress...

And if you fail, ouch ! you lose one or maybe even two legions... and the fortress will remain and since Persia probably plays after you in the millitary phase (otherwise the Legion from Cilicia would have probably already reinforced Troy) the Legion from Cilicia can come in and you will lose another Legion or two and the Fortress will probably remain !

How would you proceed if you REALLY want Troy ?

An average land dice roll is 4.17; so for 4 legions 16.7, which is quite a safe bet. I haven't seen it gone wrong in the 3 or 4 games where this happened.
Chances you lose 2 legion is only 33%.



 
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Félix Beaudouin
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Hum... it is embarrassing. I've tried doing the proper probabilities but Mare Nostrum's Dice make it too tricky for my math level. modest

However when you go with 3 legions vs A Fortress you are aiming for 3.33 per Dice wich is very easy to roll with an average of 4.17.

But for a Fortress + 1 Legion you need to Roll 3.75 on average. That is still higly favorable sure. But what percentage of failure does that mount to ? If it is around 15 %, is it not a really dangerous bet ? I mean, sure, you are supposed to succeed. but the meaning of failure is really grim...

Is anyone here able to do the proper maths with the MN dices ?
Would you guys go for that kind of attack or would you rather wait for better odds ?

 
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Thaddeus MacTaggart
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Deathpact wrote:
Is anyone here able to do the proper maths with the MN dices ?
Would you guys go for that kind of attack or would you rather wait for better odds ?

I would absolutely count on it that I would win that battle.
The thing you fear is that you're probably not going to be military leader next turn. So if the Military leader doesn't like you he/she may let Babylon attack first. But even with 4 versus 3 Greek legions the chance of success are very small as 3 Greek legions (defending) will definitely destroy at least 3 Babylonian legions. Even if Babylon succeeds you can easily re-capture Troy with the 3 new legions you have built. That's just a losing war of attrition for Babylon as it can only build 3 legions next turn, which will have a very small chance to destroy 3 Greek legions - that will 100% certain detroy all Babylonian attackers. No wonder Babylon would rather get Jerusalem. Egypt is far weaker, defensively. So yes, by all means: go for it!

PS I made a probability table for MN:


The reason why Greece wouldn't do that though is because it rather wants to expand a bit and get more resources. If you invest heavily into your military and lose legions you fall behind, development-wise. Often Greece rather waits until a bit later in the game when it has a good military hero or Babylon gets involved elsewhere. As Greece you are relatively safe as most opponents aren't that eager to attack your legions with their heavy defensive bonus.
 
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Félix Beaudouin
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Hey i was not that far off with my 15% estimation.

So you would go for it, even though you have a 16% chance that your army will get in big trouble... not sure i would i have to ponder it...

Let's imagine you go for it and suceed.

Best scenario : you destroy both fortress and Legion. You lose one of your 4 legions. if they buy 3 legions next turn and play first they effectively will lose 3 and you can counter easily

Scenario 2 : You destroy Both but lose 2 legions. Now Moving first they go 4 VS 2 and can keep 2 legions Alive. you can again counter with 3 and you are still doing fine.
If leader let you go first on 2nd turn you just reinforce and Persia can't do anything.

Scenario 3 : You fail ! Only the Legion is killed and the Fortress remains. you lose only one legion. Next Persia Attacks with Her fortress +1 Legion from Cilicia again And you have 3 or 2 legions. If you have 3 you will roll 15 as you are Defender... you would destroy both... hmm not too shaby. You would lose one more legion probably... you keep two and the Cilicia Legion is now dead too !

So actually failing to win the first battle convincingly is actually not that bad because the second battle will be Good for you since you have the Greeks Bonus !

So the only really bad Scenario is if you Destroy only one Legion AND lose Two of your own. Now you are really screwed because on Persia's Attack, you will only roll 10 and the Fortress will again Remain and you will lose one or two legions so will be Left with one Legion VS one Fortress. And the War is either Lost or far from over...

 
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Félix Beaudouin
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I would argue stealing Troy from Persia as fast as possible seems like a good move to me. If you steal it, you get the free influence and city. That is worth investing some units. It also weakens Persia right from the start and Persia might become really Big fast if you let her keep troy a few turns since it is such a nice economical boos and Persia already has the Free influence Boost.
 
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clovis chan
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Sounds pretty good (and you might become Culture leader) but by nature I rather solidify defence against Rome a little then attack Troy at an opportune time.

Depends on personal preference, I guess.
 
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Thaddeus MacTaggart
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dracodragon wrote:
Sounds pretty good (and you might become Culture leader) but by nature I rather solidify defence against Rome a little then attack Troy at an opportune time.

Depends on personal preference, I guess.

It depends on a lot of things. If Carthage and Rome immediately start fighting, risks are far smaller. If Egypt lets you build first, things may go the other way. You may even tell Babylon you will fight to the death for Troy so he may as well not even try to seize Troy - in exchange for 3 rounds of peace.
It all depends on the situation and players what's best.
 
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Félix Beaudouin
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The odds of the outcome of that battle might be enough to influence Persia's first turn.

It might be safer for Hammourabi to go Influence, Fortress / Double Legion as it would then become too hard for Greece to attack but this would also slow down Persias' Development although probably give it Military Leadership early...

I mean as Persia, if you know building Troy turn one is risky, you might want to play safer...

Subsidiary question :
Egypt took Jerusalem, Persia took Troy (and built it) and Greece attacked with 4 legions and lost just one. As Periclès (Greek leader) would you occupy Troy in order to have a safe 3 units turn 2 or try to convert the influence right away ?

I think i would occupy it a least for the first turn...
 
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Thaddeus MacTaggart
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Deathpact wrote:
Egypt took Jerusalem, Persia took Troy (and built it) and Greece attacked with 4 legions and lost just one. As Periclès (Greek leader) would you occupy Troy in order to have a safe 3 units turn 2 or try to convert the influence right away ?

I think i would occupy it a least for the first turn...

Occupy, most probably. After all, if Baylon moves and battles first, he may throw you out before you can convert. This way you are at least 100% certain you will have 6 coin/5 resource next turn. With a bit of luck you may even get an extra coin from Carthage or Rome during the Trade phase.
 
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