Revolter Nameless
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So I saw this thread where users explain how to calculate the dice probability for Arkham Horror: https://boardgamegeek.com/article/13614663#13614663

I wonder how would the formula change to account for the Double-barreled Shotgun?
http://eldritchhorrorgame.wikia.com/wiki/Double-barreled_Sho...
>>Each 6 you roll when resolving a Strength test during a Combat Encounter counts as 2 successes.

Please help!
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Brian Mc Cabe
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I'm going to venture to say that your probability of throwing a six isn't going to change. I'll let someone with superior math skills to mine correct me if I'm wrong.

The only thing that changes is you add an extra successes when you throw that six.

Brian
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David Timmerman
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apatheticexecutioner wrote:
I'm going to venture to say that your probability of throwing a six isn't going to change. I'll let someone with superior math skills to mine correct me if I'm wrong.

The only thing that changes is you add an extra successes when you throw that six.

Brian


Obviously, you sir know nothing about dice.
When the rewards for a throw reach a certain threshold, the dice can sense your anticipation and the balance of the dice will be subtly altered to make the chances of a good throw negligible. This is why you can never show dice any emotion if you hope to be a top tier board gamer.

It is a fact of nature that I have seen people prove over and over (mostly me) angry

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David Bell
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The odds of getting at least one success don't change at all. That's the easy case.

If you want the odds of getting at least 2 successes, or 3; or if you want to know the average expected the result for rolling n number of dice, then it gets a little fancier.

Basically, if you have the double-barrelled shotgun, then you can pretend you are rolling a weird die that has faces of 0,0,0,0,1,2.

Average expected sum is pretty easy to calculate: you add up the total number of successes on all sides of the die, and divide by the number of sides. So there's 3/6 or .5 average successes per die.

If you want to know your odds of getting, say, 3 successes, then you're going to have to put a little legwork in. Work out all the combinations of dice that have 3+ successes, divide by the total number of possible rolls. There's probably an analytical way to calculate it, but I don't know it offhand; this is exactly the sort of thing I just plug into anydice.com
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Revolter Nameless
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Solved in this thread: https://boardgamegeek.com/article/25406421
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Brian Mc Cabe
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Jojo_TIMB wrote:
apatheticexecutioner wrote:
I'm going to venture to say that your probability of throwing a six isn't going to change. I'll let someone with superior math skills to mine correct me if I'm wrong.

The only thing that changes is you add an extra successes when you throw that six.

Brian


Obviously, you sir know nothing about dice.
When the rewards for a throw reach a certain threshold, the dice can sense your anticipation and the balance of the dice will be subtly altered to make the chances of a good throw negligible. This is why you can never show dice any emotion if you hope to be a top tier board gamer.

It is a fact of nature that I have seen people prove over and over (mostly me) :angry:


Everything has been illuminated.

 
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Brian Mc Cabe
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revolter wrote:


Math. Just . . . no.
 
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Dan Fielding
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Rev 3 is going to ditch D6 and use hypercubes.
 
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