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Subject: Pushing for Trump impeachment would be an unforced error by the Democrats. rss

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Trey Chambers
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From: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Quote:

While the Democratic base is demanding Donald Trump's scalp, from a political standpoint that is a terrible idea. A piece by Jeff Alson makes that very clear, laying out a variety of reasons.

Trump is not a real Republican: On many issues, such as immigration, walls, trade, Russia, and Social Security, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His positions on these issues are far from those of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For Democrats, having a president who is not interested in passing Ryan's agenda is actually a plus.

Trump is incompetent: While Democrats don't agree with Trump on many issues, they can take heart in knowing that he is not very good at carrying out his own program. He can send out tweets that drive Democrats crazy, but he is unlikely to build a wall on the Mexican border, impose a 45% tariff on goods imported from China, or ban all Muslims from entering the country. Sometimes incompetence is a virtue.

The Republican brand: It's tough being a Republican politician now, but getting rid of Trump would help the Republican brand immensely. It would be foolish for Democrats to remove the albatross from around the Republicans' collective necks.

President Pence: Although Mike Pence has a calm demeanor, he is extremely right wing and a capable administrator who knows how to work with the legislative branch. He would try to help Ryan to pass his program, plus some things dear to his own heart, such as voter-ID laws. Pence would also get a long and peaceful honeymoon period in which public opinion would favor him.

Losing white voters: If the Democrats take the lead in getting rid of Trump, the white working-class voters who put him in the Oval Office will be furious with the Democrats and make it impossible to win them back. If the Democrats sit back and do nothing, letting the Republicans impeach Trump, then those voters will be furious with the Republican establishment, not with the Democrats. Subsequent Democratic appeals to them on economic grounds—say, the program of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—might have a chance.

In short, be very careful about what you wish for. You might get it.


The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.
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Shampoo4you wrote:

From: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Quote:

While the Democratic base is demanding Donald Trump's scalp, from a political standpoint that is a terrible idea. A piece by Jeff Alson makes that very clear, laying out a variety of reasons.

Trump is not a real Republican: On many issues, such as immigration, walls, trade, Russia, and Social Security, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His positions on these issues are far from those of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For Democrats, having a president who is not interested in passing Ryan's agenda is actually a plus.

Trump is incompetent: While Democrats don't agree with Trump on many issues, they can take heart in knowing that he is not very good at carrying out his own program. He can send out tweets that drive Democrats crazy, but he is unlikely to build a wall on the Mexican border, impose a 45% tariff on goods imported from China, or ban all Muslims from entering the country. Sometimes incompetence is a virtue.

The Republican brand: It's tough being a Republican politician now, but getting rid of Trump would help the Republican brand immensely. It would be foolish for Democrats to remove the albatross from around the Republicans' collective necks.

President Pence: Although Mike Pence has a calm demeanor, he is extremely right wing and a capable administrator who knows how to work with the legislative branch. He would try to help Ryan to pass his program, plus some things dear to his own heart, such as voter-ID laws. Pence would also get a long and peaceful honeymoon period in which public opinion would favor him.

Losing white voters: If the Democrats take the lead in getting rid of Trump, the white working-class voters who put him in the Oval Office will be furious with the Democrats and make it impossible to win them back. If the Democrats sit back and do nothing, letting the Republicans impeach Trump, then those voters will be furious with the Republican establishment, not with the Democrats. Subsequent Democratic appeals to them on economic grounds—say, the program of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—might have a chance.

In short, be very careful about what you wish for. You might get it.


The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.


Country>Brand

I'll 'rescue' the GOP as collateral to removing that tumor.
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Shadrach wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:

From: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Quote:

While the Democratic base is demanding Donald Trump's scalp, from a political standpoint that is a terrible idea. A piece by Jeff Alson makes that very clear, laying out a variety of reasons.

Trump is not a real Republican: On many issues, such as immigration, walls, trade, Russia, and Social Security, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His positions on these issues are far from those of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For Democrats, having a president who is not interested in passing Ryan's agenda is actually a plus.

Trump is incompetent: While Democrats don't agree with Trump on many issues, they can take heart in knowing that he is not very good at carrying out his own program. He can send out tweets that drive Democrats crazy, but he is unlikely to build a wall on the Mexican border, impose a 45% tariff on goods imported from China, or ban all Muslims from entering the country. Sometimes incompetence is a virtue.

The Republican brand: It's tough being a Republican politician now, but getting rid of Trump would help the Republican brand immensely. It would be foolish for Democrats to remove the albatross from around the Republicans' collective necks.

President Pence: Although Mike Pence has a calm demeanor, he is extremely right wing and a capable administrator who knows how to work with the legislative branch. He would try to help Ryan to pass his program, plus some things dear to his own heart, such as voter-ID laws. Pence would also get a long and peaceful honeymoon period in which public opinion would favor him.

Losing white voters: If the Democrats take the lead in getting rid of Trump, the white working-class voters who put him in the Oval Office will be furious with the Democrats and make it impossible to win them back. If the Democrats sit back and do nothing, letting the Republicans impeach Trump, then those voters will be furious with the Republican establishment, not with the Democrats. Subsequent Democratic appeals to them on economic grounds—say, the program of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—might have a chance.

In short, be very careful about what you wish for. You might get it.


The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.


Country>Brand

I'll 'rescue' the GOP as collateral to removing that tumor.


But couldn't Pence be worse?

Short of starting World War III, Trump might do less damage to the country overall. Pence gets in, the GOP runs roughshod at least until the 2018 elections.
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Shampoo4you wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:

From: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Quote:

While the Democratic base is demanding Donald Trump's scalp, from a political standpoint that is a terrible idea. A piece by Jeff Alson makes that very clear, laying out a variety of reasons.

Trump is not a real Republican: On many issues, such as immigration, walls, trade, Russia, and Social Security, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His positions on these issues are far from those of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For Democrats, having a president who is not interested in passing Ryan's agenda is actually a plus.

Trump is incompetent: While Democrats don't agree with Trump on many issues, they can take heart in knowing that he is not very good at carrying out his own program. He can send out tweets that drive Democrats crazy, but he is unlikely to build a wall on the Mexican border, impose a 45% tariff on goods imported from China, or ban all Muslims from entering the country. Sometimes incompetence is a virtue.

The Republican brand: It's tough being a Republican politician now, but getting rid of Trump would help the Republican brand immensely. It would be foolish for Democrats to remove the albatross from around the Republicans' collective necks.

President Pence: Although Mike Pence has a calm demeanor, he is extremely right wing and a capable administrator who knows how to work with the legislative branch. He would try to help Ryan to pass his program, plus some things dear to his own heart, such as voter-ID laws. Pence would also get a long and peaceful honeymoon period in which public opinion would favor him.

Losing white voters: If the Democrats take the lead in getting rid of Trump, the white working-class voters who put him in the Oval Office will be furious with the Democrats and make it impossible to win them back. If the Democrats sit back and do nothing, letting the Republicans impeach Trump, then those voters will be furious with the Republican establishment, not with the Democrats. Subsequent Democratic appeals to them on economic grounds—say, the program of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—might have a chance.

In short, be very careful about what you wish for. You might get it.


The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.


Country>Brand

I'll 'rescue' the GOP as collateral to removing that tumor.


But couldn't Pence be worse?

Short of starting World War III, Trump might do less damage to the country overall. Pence gets in, the GOP runs roughshod at least until the 2018 elections.


Pence can theoretically do short term policy 'damage' by enacting things we do not like. Structurally he's too old school, he knows you don't burn down the house you want to turn into your castle.
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Pence would be worse, in the sense that he would comptetently execute a program of terrible things. But that might be a price worth paying to defend the basic democratic institutions.
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Pence?

Mike Pence is a dork. Also a criminal who will not become president due to his relations with Mike Flynn.

Paul Ryan is next in succession, but he is complicit in Trump's trade to Russia: Russian hacking of the election in exchange for more favorable US policy towards Russia.

Orrin Hatch is #46.

 
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What is best for the party should never come before country.

But, that said, I think they are one in the same at this point.

I feel one should never start an impeachment until at least an investigation has taken place to get a better handle on the quantity of evidence that is available to warrant such an action.

And some may say that in certain cases that shouldn't be necessary if something is already public and/or admitted by the accused, but I feel that no matter how obvious that may seem to someone, it will be that less obvious to those that support the accused and wish to think the best of that person.

And, at least having the chance to get more of them on board with such a drastic measure is important to improve the outcome.

If removing an official is going to lead to a situation that is just as bad if not worse, solely because of how (such as too quickly) the impeachment was accomplished, then it is definitely worth the time to be able to do it well.

Knowing where that line is - the one that weighs outcome with ongoing damage, is tough, but if it is the country we care about most, it is the most important consideration besides determining that the accused made impeachable offenses beyond a reasonable doubt.

Note, I am only talking about timing. I am not talking about if one should impeach or not once that line has been crossed. That decision is also complex.
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Shadrach wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:

From: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Quote:

While the Democratic base is demanding Donald Trump's scalp, from a political standpoint that is a terrible idea. A piece by Jeff Alson makes that very clear, laying out a variety of reasons.

Trump is not a real Republican: On many issues, such as immigration, walls, trade, Russia, and Social Security, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His positions on these issues are far from those of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For Democrats, having a president who is not interested in passing Ryan's agenda is actually a plus.

Trump is incompetent: While Democrats don't agree with Trump on many issues, they can take heart in knowing that he is not very good at carrying out his own program. He can send out tweets that drive Democrats crazy, but he is unlikely to build a wall on the Mexican border, impose a 45% tariff on goods imported from China, or ban all Muslims from entering the country. Sometimes incompetence is a virtue.

The Republican brand: It's tough being a Republican politician now, but getting rid of Trump would help the Republican brand immensely. It would be foolish for Democrats to remove the albatross from around the Republicans' collective necks.

President Pence: Although Mike Pence has a calm demeanor, he is extremely right wing and a capable administrator who knows how to work with the legislative branch. He would try to help Ryan to pass his program, plus some things dear to his own heart, such as voter-ID laws. Pence would also get a long and peaceful honeymoon period in which public opinion would favor him.

Losing white voters: If the Democrats take the lead in getting rid of Trump, the white working-class voters who put him in the Oval Office will be furious with the Democrats and make it impossible to win them back. If the Democrats sit back and do nothing, letting the Republicans impeach Trump, then those voters will be furious with the Republican establishment, not with the Democrats. Subsequent Democratic appeals to them on economic grounds—say, the program of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—might have a chance.

In short, be very careful about what you wish for. You might get it.


The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.


Country>Brand

I'll 'rescue' the GOP as collateral to removing that tumor.


You might be able to get both. A couple of things to consider is that:

1. Trump is a vindictive shit when crossed
2. His followers are his followers and not really Republicans.

Impeach and remove him and he will do every he can to destroy the GOP. And he just may be able to do it. His people stay home and how many seats will they lose?
 
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Yeah, I still don't believe he's going to get impeached.
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Pence will do bad stuff during the time he's president which is largely fixable. Trump could very easily end up doing so much bad stuff in 4 years he would feel it necessary to make himself dictator for life to prevent any investigation of himself or his cronies creating a constitutional crisis.

Trump is so undisciplined he is certain to use his power for himself and his family in illegal ways then once he has done it, there's probably no law he won't break to prevent the bad consequences he deserves.

4 years of a republican presidency is a very small price to pay to avoid the above risk in my book.
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a few points

Shampoo4you wrote:
Quote:
Trump is not a real Republican: On many issues, such as immigration, walls, trade, Russia, and Social Security, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His positions on these issues are far from those of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For Democrats, having a president who is not interested in passing Ryan's agenda is actually a plus.


this is basically garbage; Trump is "not a conventional Republican" not because he believes in different things from Republicans but because he does not really have any fixed ideas about policy; thus, he can and is easily convinced to adopt GOP positions, because they're the only ones with access to him and the only ones who want to talk to him; he will never oppose the GOP on anything significant and indeed has reversed practically all of his positions he took during the campaign which conflict with GOP orthodoxy at this point

Quote:
Trump is incompetent: While Democrats don't agree with Trump on many issues, they can take heart in knowing that he is not very good at carrying out his own program. He can send out tweets that drive Democrats crazy, but he is unlikely to build a wall on the Mexican border, impose a 45% tariff on goods imported from China, or ban all Muslims from entering the country. Sometimes incompetence is a virtue.


this week Trump's negotiators told insurance companies that they were ready to eliminate the government's direct CSR payments for ACA plans (e.g. the subsidy payments that make the ACA work) if the insurance lobby didn't immediately start supporting Trumpcare

this would A) be illegal since the payments are legally mandated, meaning that the insurance companies could sue the government for the money and B) result in all of those individual insurance plans requiring ACA subsidies being immediately cancelled for nonpayment of premiums, because from the insurers' standpoint it doesn't matter who's paying for the plan if payment is stopped

this would have provoked a national healthcare crisis for basically no reason

the argument in favour of Trump's incompetence is essentially one that suggests that incompetent evil is preferable to competent evil, but really, it's a mug's game to pick one over the other

Quote:
The Republican brand: It's tough being a Republican politician now, but getting rid of Trump would help the Republican brand immensely. It would be foolish for Democrats to remove the albatross from around the Republicans' collective necks.


the entire GOP is in Trumpland up to their necks now; this point is largely invalid

Quote:
President Pence: Although Mike Pence has a calm demeanor, he is extremely right wing and a capable administrator who knows how to work with the legislative branch. He would try to help Ryan to pass his program, plus some things dear to his own heart, such as voter-ID laws. Pence would also get a long and peaceful honeymoon period in which public opinion would favor him.


Mike Pence is the furthest thing from a "capable administrator" - he was well on his way to getting trounced in the Indiana gubernatorial election when Trump offered him the veep gig because Pence is a stupid fuck whose only real asset is that he has that sort of "politician look" which lets him condescendingly snort at people when they confront him with actual facts about how much of a shit he is

also, the idea that public opinion would favour Pence is wrong, because A) outside of the GOP base (which is mostly sticking with Trump anyway) nobody likes him and B) he has all the charisma of a dead flounder

and a honeymoon period is something you only get when the other party is willing to give you one; the Democrats won't simply say "oh, Mike Pence! okay, you can pass all that shit we hate" - they'll fight tooth and nail, and while the GOP can still ultimately pass whatever they like if they nuke the filibuster and can control their insane caucus, they still have to pay those prices

Quote:
Losing white voters: If the Democrats take the lead in getting rid of Trump, the white working-class voters who put him in the Oval Office will be furious with the Democrats and make it impossible to win them back. If the Democrats sit back and do nothing, letting the Republicans impeach Trump, then those voters will be furious with the Republican establishment, not with the Democrats. Subsequent Democratic appeals to them on economic grounds—say, the program of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—might have a chance.


first off Trump's base wasn't the white working class; it was the white suburban class; the white working class divide between Trump and Clinton was much narrower than people give credit for

second, if Clinton had retained Obama's share of the black vote (she lost about ten percent) Trump would have lost; if she had gotten another 5% of the Latino vote Trump would have lost; if she had gotten another 5% of the white professional vote Trump would have lost; etc. - it makes far more sense to go after these votes then to concentrate on Trump voters, who are basically solidly Republican and voting on tribal lines
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Shadrach wrote:
Pence can theoretically do short term policy 'damage' by enacting things we do not like. Structurally he's too old school, he knows you don't burn down the house you want to turn into your castle.


No, no, no. Play "let's pretend" for a moment. How would a newly minted President Pence work to minimize the damage done to the GOP by an impeachment? Well, that's pretty simple - go back to the numerous promises that Trump made that he hasn't/can't deliver on and smack the shit out of them. Which means:

1. Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. I won't call this tax reform, because it won't be that.

2. Really dismantling the ACA.

3. Eliminating the inheritance tax.

4. Reducing entitlement spending and welfare programs.

5. Reducing education funding (particularly by doing stupid stuff that uses the words "Common Core" as often as possible) while pretending this is somehow state's rights.

6. Rolling back regulations on things we really want and need, like the financial system.

If Pence gets in to office early enough and really goes full gang-busters on these types of things, he just might be able to rehabilitate the image before the midterms, look like a savior for both the country and the party, and even turn any Democratic efforts to slow down the agenda/obstruct into a benefit.

Thinking Pence is a "short-term" type of problem is downright dangerous.
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perfalbion wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
Pence can theoretically do short term policy 'damage' by enacting things we do not like. Structurally he's too old school, he knows you don't burn down the house you want to turn into your castle.


No, no, no. Play "let's pretend" for a moment. How would a newly minted President Pence work to minimize the damage done to the GOP by an impeachment? Well, that's pretty simple - go back to the numerous promises that Trump made that he hasn't/can't deliver on and smack the shit out of them. Which means:

1. Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. I won't call this tax reform, because it won't be that.

2. Really dismantling the ACA.

3. Eliminating the inheritance tax.

4. Reducing entitlement spending and welfare programs.

5. Reducing education funding (particularly by doing stupid stuff that uses the words "Common Core" as often as possible) while pretending this is somehow state's rights.

6. Rolling back regulations on things we really want and need, like the financial system.

If Pence gets in to office early enough and really goes full gang-busters on these types of things, he just might be able to rehabilitate the image before the midterms, look like a savior for both the country and the party, and even turn any Democratic efforts to slow down the agenda/obstruct into a benefit.

Thinking Pence is a "short-term" type of problem is downright dangerous.


Can all of those be undone the next time the democratic party controls the government?

Can we roll back a world war? (a second carrier arrives near korea- and firing 59 tomahawk missiles was a good memory for him).

Can we roll back 4 years of corruption being normalized?

And worse- if trump is colluding with the russians- can we roll back 4 years of a president who is in league with the russians?

Pence is bad but he is "normal" bad.
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perfalbion wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
Pence can theoretically do short term policy 'damage' by enacting things we do not like. Structurally he's too old school, he knows you don't burn down the house you want to turn into your castle.


No, no, no. Play "let's pretend" for a moment. How would a newly minted President Pence work to minimize the damage done to the GOP by an impeachment? Well, that's pretty simple - go back to the numerous promises that Trump made that he hasn't/can't deliver on and smack the shit out of them. Which means:

1. Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. I won't call this tax reform, because it won't be that.

2. Really dismantling the ACA.

3. Eliminating the inheritance tax.

4. Reducing entitlement spending and welfare programs.

5. Reducing education funding (particularly by doing stupid stuff that uses the words "Common Core" as often as possible) while pretending this is somehow state's rights.

6. Rolling back regulations on things we really want and need, like the financial system.

If Pence gets in to office early enough and really goes full gang-busters on these types of things, he just might be able to rehabilitate the image before the midterms, look like a savior for both the country and the party, and even turn any Democratic efforts to slow down the agenda/obstruct into a benefit.

Thinking Pence is a "short-term" type of problem is downright dangerous.


You assume anything like this agenda could be shuffled through in a post impeachment climate. The scandal is already too thick on the ground, no one is coming away clean and while I figure it is possible and likely he would pass things I don't like it would have to largely be boring edge stuff. Anything sexy would get too many news cycles and judging by the ACA responses the political caoital costs to enactinv the batshit stuff are just too high for long term sustsinability.
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Shampoo4you wrote:

The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.


You have just lost any and all privilege to complain about the term "sweet librul tears" after you decided partisan gamesmanship is more important than the well-being of the nation.
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perfalbion wrote:
No, no, no. Play "let's pretend" for a moment. How would a newly minted President Pence work to minimize the damage done to the GOP by an impeachment? Well, that's pretty simple - go back to the numerous promises that Trump made that he hasn't/can't deliver on and smack the shit out of them. Which means:

1. Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. I won't call this tax reform, because it won't be that.

2. Really dismantling the ACA.

3. Eliminating the inheritance tax.

4. Reducing entitlement spending and welfare programs.

5. Reducing education funding (particularly by doing stupid stuff that uses the words "Common Core" as often as possible) while pretending this is somehow state's rights.

6. Rolling back regulations on things we really want and need, like the financial system.

If Pence gets in to office early enough and really goes full gang-busters on these types of things, he just might be able to rehabilitate the image before the midterms, look like a savior for both the country and the party, and even turn any Democratic efforts to slow down the agenda/obstruct into a benefit.


yes, but all of these things are not popular - not even tax cuts, because at this point most people know that GOP tax cuts are for rich people

like, the GOP could literally have done all of this in its first month, they have the legislative power to do all of it, and it's not like Trump is preventing them from doing it because he didn't stop them from voting on the AHCA or stop them from beginning the process to kill net neutrality; the ACHA in particular is a great example because literally nobody else other than the Republican party likes it and as policy it enraged the electorate, but they still voted for it because they're ideologically required to do so; the reason they haven't enacted all the rest of it is because they haven't figured out a way to sell it yet, and the problem is that it is awfully hard to sell a shit sandwich

there is some sort of weird perception that it is only Trump who is widely disliked, but the GOP itself is also very much not popular either; it really only is able to survive as it is via a combination of gerrymandering and vote suppression and Democratic/liberal unenthusiasm at the polls, and that last one in particular really matters because right now Democrats are motivated as fuck to vote in 2018 and it's not just because of Trump: Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are widely (and rightly) hated as well, and were Pence to be in the big-boy chair he would rapidly become just as loathed as Trump
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maxo-texas wrote:
Can all of those be undone the next time the democratic party controls the government?


Maybe, but it's doubtful. The Bush tax cuts are still here.

Quote:
Can we roll back a world war? (a second carrier arrives near korea- and firing 59 tomahawk missiles was a good memory for him).


No, but I think this is so hyperbolic it really isn't worth contemplating. The President appears to have a great deal of respect for high-ranking military officers and if you think that Mattis and McMaster will make this easy, then I think you're not paying attention.

Quote:
Can we roll back 4 years of corruption being normalized?


Yes. We've done it before.

Quote:
And worse- if trump is colluding with the russians- can we roll back 4 years of a president who is in league with the russians?


Again, I suspect we'll find that this is overblown. The President sure seems to behaving like a classic "user" who wanted something from Russia during the election, got it, and is now back to "business as usual." The administration backed off stupid statements about Ukraine/Crimea, for example. And sanctions that they could have lifted with the stroke of a pen are still in place.

Quote:
Pence is bad but he is "normal" bad.


No, he's really, really not. I'd argue he's worse than Trump because his ideology is so strident and out-of-step with most Americans. And if he can get it into law, it's much harder to get that repealed.
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Shadrach wrote:
You assume anything like this agenda could be shuffled through in a post impeachment climate.


Yes, I do. And I expect that a GOP desperate to put the scandal behind them will ram it through as rapidly as is possible.

Quote:
Anything sexy would get too many news cycles and judging by the ACA responses...


You're assuming a great deal. If insurance companies continue pulling out of exchanges, it could be quite easy for public opinion to flip and make a repeal far more palatable.
 
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mightygodking wrote:
yes, but all of these things are not popular - not even tax cuts, because at this point most people know that GOP tax cuts are for rich people


This is simply wrong. Tax cuts are immensely popular because everyone wants to delude themselves that they will:

1) provide an immediate benefit to them AND

2) drive unrealistic economic growth AND

3) be something they get to take advantage of once they and their kids make it big.

If the Trump administration had focused on infrastructure, then tax cuts, and then that ACA reform/repeal I suspect we'd have a very different momentum at work.
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mightygodking wrote:
perfalbion wrote:
No, no, no. Play "let's pretend" for a moment. How would a newly minted President Pence work to minimize the damage done to the GOP by an impeachment? Well, that's pretty simple - go back to the numerous promises that Trump made that he hasn't/can't deliver on and smack the shit out of them. Which means:

1. Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. I won't call this tax reform, because it won't be that.

2. Really dismantling the ACA.

3. Eliminating the inheritance tax.

4. Reducing entitlement spending and welfare programs.

5. Reducing education funding (particularly by doing stupid stuff that uses the words "Common Core" as often as possible) while pretending this is somehow state's rights.

6. Rolling back regulations on things we really want and need, like the financial system.

If Pence gets in to office early enough and really goes full gang-busters on these types of things, he just might be able to rehabilitate the image before the midterms, look like a savior for both the country and the party, and even turn any Democratic efforts to slow down the agenda/obstruct into a benefit.


yes, but all of these things are not popular - not even tax cuts, because at this point most people know that GOP tax cuts are for rich people

like, the GOP could literally have done all of this in its first month, they have the legislative power to do all of it, and it's not like Trump is preventing them from doing it because he didn't stop them from voting on the AHCA or stop them from beginning the process to kill net neutrality; the ACHA in particular is a great example because literally nobody else other than the Republican party likes it and as policy it enraged the electorate, but they still voted for it because they're ideologically required to do so; the reason they haven't enacted all the rest of it is because they haven't figured out a way to sell it yet, and the problem is that it is awfully hard to sell a shit sandwich

there is some sort of weird perception that it is only Trump who is widely disliked, but the GOP itself is also very much not popular either; it really only is able to survive as it is via a combination of gerrymandering and vote suppression and Democratic/liberal unenthusiasm at the polls, and that last one in particular really matters because right now Democrats are motivated as fuck to vote in 2018 and it's not just because of Trump: Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are widely (and rightly) hated as well, and were Pence to be in the big-boy chair he would rapidly become just as loathed as Trump


This this this.

They could have spent from 11/8 to 1/20 preparing every bill and rammed them thru in the first few weeks.

They don't become magically able to get more bills thru when pence takes office. They have spent so much time saying "no" they can't even compromise with themselves.

But more to the point- Removing Mr. Trump is good for the nation on many levels. Pence- I disagree with STRONGLY and I do not think will be one of our best presidents- and I'm concerned he will under perform during an international crisis but he's still much better for the nation.

If he passes dislikable things, then we'll repeal them just down the road. The only thing we can't change is the supreme court- and that's going to happen thru 2018 regardless of who is in office if a position opens up. And it's probably going to happen thru 2020 regardless of who is in office.

And more importantly- removing Mr. Trump is important because we are a nation of laws- not men. We must remove him because he is violating the law every day he is in office. We must not tolerate that destruction of the value of law to our nation simply because pence is a hard right conservative candidate.

And if republicans lose control of the house in 2018, it won't matter.
(I'm not counting on the senate and that does matter w/regard to appointments and the supreme court).
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GameCrossing wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:

The more I think about it, the more I think getting rid of Trump would play right into the GOP hands.

Sure, having one of their own impeached means they will take a brand hit, but Trump is probably doing more damage to the GOP brand just by BEING President.


You have just lost any and all privilege to complain about the term "sweet librul tears" after you decided partisan gamesmanship is more important than the well-being of the nation.


I believe that he is putting forth the argument that minimizing the damage by the GOP might better be served in the long run if an incompetent lunatic (Trump) is at the head rather than a efficient bigot (Pence). The key is when examined closely Trump is merely an extreme example of the bigoted classist thought that permeates the GOP at the present time. One just has to do balance out if the incompetence with lead to more or less GOP inspired long term damage to the fabric/existence of the nation
 
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maxo-texas wrote:
They could have spent from 11/8 to 1/20 preparing every bill and rammed them thru in the first few weeks.


You're confusing incompetence with inability. The administration was really, really dumb to try taking on health care first. Incredibly dumb. It was a morass that shocked literally everyone when it was the first legislative priority put forward because it was going to be such a problem to pass.

Quote:
They don't become magically able to get more bills thru when pence takes office. They have spent so much time saying "no" they can't even compromise with themselves.


#1 - If replacing the President happens early enough, of course they can try again. It's like smacking a reset button.

#2 - Mike Pence is horrid in many ways, but he "speaks conservative" better than Trump and his cronies. I give him a much higher chance of getting a deal done, particularly if he builds to it with some successes (like infrastructure, tax cuts, and entitlement reform).

Y'all are selling everyone very short here. The people in play are successful politicians for a reason.
 
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Sue_G wrote:
Yeah, I still don't believe he's going to get impeached.


The numbers agree with you. After all this 75% of Republicans approve of Trump's job performance.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/334326-the-memo-t...

And given the "coup" frenzy being worked up on sites like Townhall.com any GOP Rep that goes along with this will be primary challenged into oblivion. Their lack up spine so far does not bode well for them going against the grain
 
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Kumitedad wrote:
Sue_G wrote:
Yeah, I still don't believe he's going to get impeached.


The numbers agree with you. After all this 75% of Republicans approve of Trump's job performance.


You're overlooking an important fact - that number was 96% just a month ago.

He's fallen into a range that political experts consider to be very dangerous for a party. Once you're below 80%, turnout problems become very real, and mid-terms will typically go to the party that gets the vote out most effectively.
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perfalbion wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:
Sue_G wrote:
Yeah, I still don't believe he's going to get impeached.


The numbers agree with you. After all this 75% of Republicans approve of Trump's job performance.


You're overlooking an important fact - that number was 96% just a month ago.

He's fallen into a range that political experts consider to be very dangerous for a party. Once you're below 80%, turnout problems become very real, and mid-terms will typically go to the party that gets the vote out most effectively.


Doesn't really matter. Even if they make it past the primaries, (which would be doubtful given the support number he has still) then they will be crushed in the general election when The Donald's supporters either stay home or even vote against them.

Since they have shown themselves to be rather craven little shits so far, I don't really see that changing anytime soon. They will choose their political survival over the good of the country. The numbers will probably toss them out of power next election, but they will hope they will be able to hang on.
 
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