Ryan Feathers
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2017 Geek Madness Prediction Competition

The 2017 Geek Madness tournament is underway with Round 1 starting up just recently. You can follow the action along by going here: https://boardgamegeek.com/geeklist/226195/2017-geek-madness-...

I have set up a bracket at challonge.com that allows others to submit predictions about who will win each round, similar to March Madness brackets.

You should be able to follow this link: http://challonge.com/9kx8v053 to be able to submit your own predictions. You will have to create your own account.

I will be accepting predictions until this Friday around 8:00pm central time. This will mean people can still be submitting predictions while voting is underway for round 1.

I will enter the winners for each round of Geek Madness and the challonge site will handle scoring everyone's predictions. Correct guesses in Round 1 are worth 1 points, and each round after that correct guesses are doubled in point value.

During the contest I will be collecting geekgold to distribute to the eventual winner(s). I will provide 100 geekgold myself. Any geekgold donated to this post will also be put in the pot.

At the end of the contest I will donate 50% of the geekgold pot to the winner, 25% to 2nd place, and 15% to 3rd place. The remaining 10% will go to a randomly selected participant as a way to thank participants. If there happens to be any ties in the final standings I will total the geekgold that should have been awarded to their place and then split it evenly. (For example if 2 tie for 1st place I will take the 50% 1st place prize and 25% 2nd place prize and distribuate them evenly to the two 1st place participants. 3rd place will still get their 15% award unless there is a tie for third in which case all 3rd place entries will get an equal share.)

When submitting your prediction brackets you will be asked to give them a title--please use your BGG username so that I will be able to later asses who to distribute the geekgold prizes to.

When entering predilections you will note a few oddities in the opening rounds. This is because of the 4 superseeds in the competition which have byes into the round of 32. The Challonge site does not allow for this so I had to add in some "dummy" entries. You will need to make sure to pick Agricola, Puerto Rico, Pandemic Legacy, Power Grid, Bye1Winner, Bye2Winner, Bye3Winner, and Bye4Winner as winners in the first round and then pick the 4 games to win in Round 2. These are essentially free points that every person should earn as long as they submit their predictions correctly. (Just to be super clear this means you are picking Bye1, Bye2, Bye3, Bye4, Bye1Loser, Bye2Loser, Bye3Loser, and Bye4Loser as the loser in the first round).

If you have any questions please ask below, I will do my best to address them promptly. Please use this thread for any other discussion surrounding the prediction competition.

Also a big thanks to Tony for running Geek Madness 2017 and helping me to be able to set this all up.

Finally I hope everyone has a fun time! I'll periodically post an update with how many entrants have submitted their brackets. (I have submitted my bracket already so as not to be influenced by anyone elses guesses. Everyone else will not be able to see other's predictions until after I've closed off allowing new entries).
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Ryan Feathers
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Just as an update we have 17 entries already. Still about 2 and a half more days to get your submissions in for everyone else interested.
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Scott Alden
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I added some more to the pot.
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David Chapman
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Ranior wrote:

When entering predilections you will note a few oddities in the opening rounds. This is because of the 4 superseeds in the competition which have byes into the round of 32. The Challonge site does not allow for this so I had to add in some "dummy" entries. You will need to make sure to pick Agricola, Puerto Rico, Pandemic Legacy, Power Grid, Bye1Winner, Bye2Winner, Bye3Winner, and Bye4Winner as winners in the first round and then pick the 4 games to win in Round 2. These are essentially free points that every person should earn as long as they submit their predictions correctly. (Just to be super clear this means you are picking Bye1, Bye2, Bye3, Bye4, Bye1Loser, Bye2Loser, Bye3Loser, and Bye4Loser as the loser in the first round).


And two people have already managed to make an arsehole's of this.

BTW, it's "predictions", not "predilections". Although the way some people talk about Blood Rage, I can believe both.
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Nico Robbemont
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Yeah! I'm in the lead! cool

I just hope that letting Scythe go through to round 5 doesn't cost me too much points in the next rounds.
It seems I over-estimated the hype around Scythe (and Gloomhaven). whistle
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Jake Blomquist
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NicoR wrote:
Yeah! I'm in the lead! cool

I just hope that letting Scythe go through to round 5 doesn't cost me too much points in the next rounds.
It seems I over-estimated the hype around Scythe (and Gloomhaven). whistle


Nice job. For the moment at least I'm 8th myself, which is better than I thought. I too had Scythe not losing until Power Grid, which is going to cost me, but I also had one or two other big mistakes like that, so I'm probably out of it. My guiding principle when stuck on one was to give it to the game I like less, so at least when I'm wrong I'm pleasantly surprised.
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Cesar Puga
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Look out, Nico... I'm second now! arrrh

But that will probably be my best so I figured I should come here and brag about it!
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Nico Robbemont
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Mike_Bonn wrote:
Look out, Nico... I'm second now! arrrh
But that will probably be my best so I figured I should come here and brag about it!


I'm not looking over my shoulder now, just trying to dash to the finish line.cool

But I still expect someone catching up!.
Only now come the important rounds with a lot of points to be scored.
And I see some very close matchups this round.
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PJ Cunningham
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That challonge.com site doesn't seem to compose very well in any of my browsers.
 
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Cesar Puga
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Semifinals are up, time for an update!
 
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Ryan Feathers
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Updated the challonge site.

All my picks have lost out so I certainly cannot win haha. But it looks like quite the race for first place with quite a few entries still eligible.
 
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Jake Blomquist
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Wow, I thought I was going down for sure, yet there I am still in the top 10. Granted with my potential points I have basically no chance of winning, but I think I have a decent shot of tying the current leader? which is something. Frankly I'm pretty surprised I'm doing as well as I am.

At this point it looks to me like riversong1 is in maybe the best position.
 
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Jake Blomquist
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An exciting race at the end here, it all comes down to the final vote to see who wins. And it seems I've somehow locked in third place, which ultimately doesn't matter (EDIT: oh wait, it looks like I'm going to win some geekgold, awesome), but which I'm still very proud of.
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Tony Ackroyd
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Yeah, so Riversong wins if TTR wins.
Mike Bonn wins if CoB wins.

Hmm, but if TTR wins then doesn't Bigmac jump to 3rd? Not sure how the scoring works exactly.
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Ryan Feathers
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1000rpm wrote:
Yeah, so Riversong wins if TTR wins.
Mike Bonn wins if CoB wins.

Hmm, but if TTR wins then doesn't Bigmac jump to 3rd? Not sure how the scoring works exactly.


You would be correct. This round scores 64 for anyone who gets it right. Looking through things, no place is locked in quite yet so that is exciting. Always nice to have the winner decided by the final game.
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Jake Blomquist
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1000rpm wrote:
Yeah, so Riversong wins if TTR wins.
Mike Bonn wins if CoB wins.

Hmm, but if TTR wins then doesn't Bigmac jump to 3rd? Not sure how the scoring works exactly.


Ah, good catch, I thought the first time I went through I saw someone who could overcome me for third, but then I went back to find them and missed it twice, so I convinced myself that I just got confused the first time through. Oops. Oh well, I'm still frankly pretty surprised that I have a shot at placing at all. And right now CoB and TtR are within one vote of each other. Exciting.
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Cesar Puga
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It should go like this:

If Ticket to Ride wins:

1 - Riversong1 - 300
2 - Bigmac33070 - 265
3 - Mike_bonn - 259


If Castles of Burgundy wins:

1 - Mike_bonn - 323
2 - Riversong1 - 236
3 - jblomquist - 227



Not relevant for the tournament, but interesting:

- NicoR made 109 correct predictions (out of 127)! Congrats!
- PowerGrid was present in 25 predictions for a Semifinal finish (out of 42)
- Only 3 people correctly predict El Grande reaching the Semis. Quite a surprise.
- According to our predictions, Agricola and Pandemic Legacy were the biggest letdowns of the Madness.
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Nico Robbemont
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Congrats Mike!

It was fun while it lasted, but I missed all the big points in the final and semi-finals. cry

But very happy to see El Grande getting so far!
(I love me some "cult-of-the-old" whistle )
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Ryan Feathers
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I will be sending out the geekgold rewards this evening. Congrats to the top three and whomever fate smiles upon when I roll up a random name tonight.
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Ryan Feathers
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Alright, now I actually handed out the geek gold. Thanks to our first place champion for reminding me! (I totally forgot last week, sorry all).

Gonzoron was the lucky winner of the random user 10% prize. Else the top three participants got their 50%, 25%, and 15% shares. The total pot wound up being 700 geekgold!

Once again congrats to the winners and thanks to all who participated. It was a pretty fun Competition even though I personally fell out of it pretty quickly. (Curses Agricola and Pandemic Legacy!) A big thanks to Tony for running everything and donating to the pot, and another big thanks to the big guy himself for donating 500 geekgold to this contest! That was pretty awesome.

If Tony winds up running geekmadness in a similar fashion next year I'll likely try to set this up again. The fun of March (or Geek) Madness is in making brackets and seeing how predictions unfold in my opinion, so I'm always up for seeing how I compare to others.

Thanks all!
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