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Subject: [Number Theory] Average Hits for Dice Rolls rss

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Deft Titan
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Hi game fans,

Using these dice layouts:


These tables do not account for triggered weapon abilities. A triggered +hit, critical, or extra attack can really offset a low hit rate. I have tables for those things, but I'm trying to keep this simple.

Average HITS (not wounds) per dice roll combo


Average shields per blue dice rolls:


Weapons - no abilities taken into account


If you like this and want more, I'd be happy to do more. I don't know what people's appetite is for this stuff.

If you'd like to see the permutations/probability and frequency distributions for all dice faces, PM me and I'll be happy to send you data.

If you believe I have made an error, please post a clear and thorough explanation of your correct method.
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Rezard Vareth
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I love these, please do more!
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Simone Romano
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I'm loving it meeple
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Rezard Vareth
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Are you accounting for the fact that each ability can only be triggered once? 2.6 seems high for the longsword.
 
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Florian Stock
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You forgot one dice combination/weapon: Battle Hammer,2R 2B
I just recognized in, because I think, that the 2R2B should be one of the most powerful dice combination.
 
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Ricky W
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A very old thread of mine fits in here quite well.

I did computer simulated attacks of a 2 red dice attacker against different kinds of stash armour, each fight 1,000,000 times.

For the ones, that didn't see it back then:

Simulated Statistics

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Morten Benzon
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Im loving it! Great sheet!

For tactical purposes, when You only need to Deal 1 last point of dmg to an enemy, the value of the red dice decrease sligtly. 0.1 to be exact. AS long As we are numbercrunching, it Could be useful in 0.1 situations­čśŐ
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Deft Titan
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RezardVareth wrote:
Are you accounting for the fact that each ability can only be triggered once? 2.6 seems high for the longsword.


It should say that neither table accounts for abilities triggered. Those will raise the percentages slightly. I have tables for those too...

Avg hits per roll for 2R is 1.6.
Longsword is 1 guaranteed hit + 2R

The Problem with longsword is slash resistance.
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Deft Titan
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carraway0877 wrote:
A very old thread of mine fits in here quite well.

I did computer simulated attacks of a 2 red dice attacker...

Simulated Statistics

...
Attacker: 2 red dice, 0 blue dice
Defender: MaxHealth 8, Armour 0, DefenseDice 0
Avg wounds per attack: 1.5993559073473245
...



Well done, sir!
 
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Deft Titan
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Benzon wrote:
Im loving it! Great sheet!

For tactical purposes, when You only need to Deal 1 last point of dmg to an enemy, the value of the red dice decrease sligtly. 0.1 to be exact. AS long As we are numbercrunching, it Could be useful in 0.1 situations­čśŐ


When attacking a defender with no armor and no defense dice, and you need to score just 1 hit for a final wound, a single red die will have six sides that can score this hit, and a single blue will have just five sides.

For simplicity, I focused on hits generated instead of wounds.
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Jeffrey Owen
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This is great! I did notice that you are missing 2R&2B (i.e. Battle Hammer) for your base chart.
 
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Deft Titan
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Ironman2140 wrote:
This is great! I did notice that you are missing 2R&2B (i.e. Battle Hammer) for your base chart.


I think my battle hammer was equipped to my cleric and stored in a baggy when I did v1.

I've added all the dice combos to account for the battle hammer and the soul weapons.
 
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Rezard Vareth
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Ironman2140 wrote:
This is great! I did notice that you are missing 2R&2B (i.e. Battle Hammer) for your base chart.
FYI, there is a similar analysis of dice outcomes per dice pool here: https://www.boardgamegeek.com/filepage/124752/sword-and-sorc...
 
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Deft Titan
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RezardVareth wrote:
Ironman2140 wrote:
This is great! I did notice that you are missing 2R&2B (i.e. Battle Hammer) for your base chart.
FYI, there is a similar analysis of dice outcomes per dice pool here: https://www.boardgamegeek.com/filepage/124752/sword-and-sorc...

That's good work It uses cumulative numbers which might be easier for some folks to glance at.

I wanted the average hits per weapon so I could easily rank them.
 
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