Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
While there was a drop in hurricane landfalls, the number of hurricanes has been consistently increasing.

This was stated by the guest on Bill Maher so I looked into it.

http://www.climate-debate.com/forum/hurricanes-worldwide-197...

Quote:
Hurricanes Worldwide 1970-2012

Based on data from Maue, RN (2011): Global Frequency. I have studied the development of the number of tropical cyclones during the years January 1970 through September 2012 divided into the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. I would like to thank R.N. Maue for collecting data on tropical cyclones and making data public. I have not done a quality control of the data and have used data as they are.

I am using "tropical cyclones" as a generic term for tropical storms of different strengths and 1970-2012 as label for the period January 1970 through September 2012.

... (loooong article).

The variation originates from merging the figures from the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, each with its own cyclic variations. The model explains 38% of the total variation. There is a significant increasing trend in the number of Major Hurricanes. The expected number of Major Hurricanes has increased from approx. 18 per year in 1970 to approx. 26 per year in 2011, representing an increase of approx. 8 per year or an increase of approx. 40%.
The reduction in explained variation doing the analysis for all Major Hurricanes together, indicates that the model has not caught all variations.


A little validation here for
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp

fyi 2016 had 15 hurricanes.

The key difference is the number that hit the united states vs the number of hurricanes total (I believe globally).

Interested in any comments.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Moshe Callen
Israel
Jerusalem
flag msg tools
designer
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ/ πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν./...
badge
μῆνιν ἄειδε θεὰ Πηληϊάδεω Ἀχιλῆος/ οὐλομένην, ἣ μυρί᾽ Ἀχαιοῖς ἄλγε᾽ ἔθηκε,/...
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Not globally. Hurricanes is a terms specific to the Atlantic and NE Pacific, The exact same kind of storm is a cyclone in the Indian Ocean and southern Pacific and a typhoon in the NW Pacific.
6 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Marco Schaub
Switzerland
Thun
Bern
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
whac3 wrote:


I did not know that. Thanks! thumbsup
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steve Cates
United States
Visalia
California
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb

Year Storms Hurricanes Deaths Damage (millions USD) Retired Names
2015 12 4 89 >590 2 - Erika, Joaquin
2014 9 6 17 232 0
2013 13 2 4 7 1,510 1 - Ingrid
2012 19 10 199 75,000+ 1 - Sandy
2011 19 7 100 21,000 1 - Irene
2010 21 12 287 12,356 2 - Igor, Tomas
2009 11 3 6 77 0
2008 16 8 761 24,945 3 - Gustav, Ike, Paloma
2007 15 6 341 50 3 - Dean, Felix, Noel
2006 10 5 5 500 0
2005 28 15 3,483 115,520 5 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma
2004 15 9 3,126 45,235 4 - Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2003 16 7 50 3,580 3 - Fabian, Isabel, Juan
2002 12 4 23 1,220 2 - Isidore, Lili
2001 15 9 92 5,260 3 - Allison, Iris, Michelle
2000 15 8 30 26 1 - Keith
1999 12 8 78 5,532 2 - Floyd, Lenny
1998 14 10 9,715 3,165 2 - Georges, Mitch
1997 8 3 4 100 0
1996 13 9 126 3,600 3 - Cesar, Fran, Hortense
1995 19 11 117 3,729 4 - Luis, Marilyn, Opal, Roxanne
1994 7 3 1,175 973 0
1993 8 4 267 57 0
1992 7 4 26 26,500 1 - Andrew


In 1978 there were 4 Hurricanes the same as 2015. I'm all for cleaning up the air and going to zero emissions but alarmism isn't scientific.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steve Cates
United States
Visalia
California
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
BTW, here's the numbers for the Indian Ocean.
2015 8 0 363 258 0
2014 8 0 147 3,400 0
2013 10 0 323 1,500 0
2012 5 0 128 56 0
2011 10 0 >360 >277 0
2010 12 0 0 0 0
2009 17 0 0 0 0
2008 20 8 0 0 0
2007 14 9 0 0 0
2006 15 5 0 0 0
2005 19 5 0 0 0
2004 15 6 0 0 0
2003 22 9 0 0 0
2002 16 9 0 0 0
2001 13 5 0 0 0
2000 20 9 0 0 0
1999 22 7 0 0 0
1998 15 3 0 0 0
1997 21 6 0 0 0
1996 21 11 0 0 0
1995 17 8 0 0 0
1994 23 13 0 0 0
1993 17 4 0 0 0
1992 19 7 0 0 0

Zero hurricanes since 2008 is pretty remarkable.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Andre
United States
Connecticut
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Donald Trump - "This is fake news".
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
ironcates wrote:
BTW, here's the numbers for the Indian Ocean.
2015 8 0 363 258 0
2014 8 0 147 3,400 0
2013 10 0 323 1,500 0
2012 5 0 128 56 0
2011 10 0 >360 >277 0
2010 12 0 0 0 0
2009 17 0 0 0 0
2008 20 8 0 0 0
2007 14 9 0 0 0
2006 15 5 0 0 0
2005 19 5 0 0 0
2004 15 6 0 0 0
2003 22 9 0 0 0
2002 16 9 0 0 0
2001 13 5 0 0 0
2000 20 9 0 0 0
1999 22 7 0 0 0
1998 15 3 0 0 0
1997 21 6 0 0 0
1996 21 11 0 0 0
1995 17 8 0 0 0
1994 23 13 0 0 0
1993 17 4 0 0 0
1992 19 7 0 0 0

Zero hurricanes since 2008 is pretty remarkable.


Interesting...sure.

Admittedly, not sure how cyclones, severe tropical cyclones, intense tropical cyclones relate to hurricanes.

Remarkable? Well, they've had plenty of sub major cyclone level storms since 2008.

For example, tropical cyclones (not "severe tropical cyclones") killed about 35 in 2011-2012 as a random year to check. So I don't think it's remarkable.

And, in 2008, about 140,000 people died and and there was nearly US$14 billion in damage.

We have el nino based cycles here where major storms do not form even tho there is plenty of energy available for them to form. There may be a similar cyclic event underway in the indian ocean.

For example, for the north atlantic, Despite up and down variability, the trend seems visibly clear to me without even doing the math.


http://policlimate.com/tropical/



1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Damian
United States
Enfield
Connecticut
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmb
ironcates wrote:
BTW, here's the numbers for the Indian Ocean.
2015 8 0 363 258 0
2014 8 0 147 3,400 0
2013 10 0 323 1,500 0
2012 5 0 128 56 0
2011 10 0 >360 >277 0
2010 12 0 0 0 0
2009 17 0 0 0 0
2008 20 8 0 0 0
2007 14 9 0 0 0
2006 15 5 0 0 0
2005 19 5 0 0 0
2004 15 6 0 0 0
2003 22 9 0 0 0
2002 16 9 0 0 0
2001 13 5 0 0 0
2000 20 9 0 0 0
1999 22 7 0 0 0
1998 15 3 0 0 0
1997 21 6 0 0 0
1996 21 11 0 0 0
1995 17 8 0 0 0
1994 23 13 0 0 0
1993 17 4 0 0 0
1992 19 7 0 0 0

Zero hurricanes since 2008 is pretty remarkable.

It would be if it were at all accurate. Those numbers really pass a basic sniff test for you? The data looks really messed up, like some sort of automatic data collection isn't working. Not to mention I read the news. You don't recall any hurricanes in the Indian Ocean since 2008?

Let's look at the most recent year on that table.

Here is the 2015 North Indian Ocean data:

Seasonal statistics
Depressions 12
Deep depressions 9
Cyclonic storms 4
Severe cyclonic storms 2
Very severe cyclonic storms 2
Total fatalities >363 total
Total damage > $258 million (2015 USD)


Here is the 2014-25 South Indian Ocean data.

Seasonal statistics
Total disturbances 14
Total depressions 13
Total storms 11
Tropical cyclones 4
Intense tropical cyclones 3
Very intense tropical cyclones 2 (record high, tied with 2004–05 and 2013–14)
Total fatalities 111 total
Total damage $46.4 million (2015 USD)


Based on the damage and fatality numbers they seem to be using only partial North Indian Ocean data. Feel free to look at the other years (click on a year to get the summary of the season). 2011 was the least active year since 1993 (in the North, slightly above average in the southwest), but there were still two in the North.
5 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steve Cates
United States
Visalia
California
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Yeah, seems odd. It looks like there were 3 named cyclonic storms in 2015. So, I don't know why Mac's site showed 0.
1 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Chief Slovenly
United States
Burlington
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Also, you can't pick out one year and compare it to any other year. That's a tiny snapshot at best. It'd be far more accurate to take, say, a rolling decade's worth of data and compare it against a prior decade and the decade before that.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
ironcates wrote:
Yeah, seems odd. It looks like there were 3 named cyclonic storms in 2015. So, I don't know why Mac's site showed 0.


I dont either. It is odd. And maybe it was remarkable as you said in the first place.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.