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Subject: Spreading hits between legions rss

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Martin G
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A situation came up in our recent game when I took 2 hits on a 2-legion army and had to choose whether to eliminate one legion and keep one at full-strength or to spread the hits and end up with two reduced strength legions. This turns out to be quite an interesting decision!

Cost to repair
Two damaged legions can be trained back to full-strength with 2 military points. But you can also add a brand new legion with 2 military points if there's only one already in the army. So in this case it's a wash, but if the army started at 3 legions, it would be cheaper to repair two than replace one.

Political strength
Each unit in a provincial capital adds/subtracts required votes in a Place Governor action. So for political purposes, 2 reduced legions are better than 1 full strength.

Military strength
Full-strength legions hit on 3-6, reduced-strength on 5-6. Factoring in exploding sixes, a full-strength legion averages 0.8 hits and a reduced-strength 0.4 hits. So the average hits from two reduced-strength is the same as one full-strength.

That's not the full story though: while the average is the same, the distribution is different.


Hits 0 1 2 3 4
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 x full 33% 56% 9% 1% 0%
2 x reduced 44% 37% 14% 4% 1%


Two reduced legions are more likely to miss entirely but they're also more likely to 'go big'. A single full-strength legion is a more reliable hit, but less likely more than that. Which of these you prefer is situational.

As an aside, we can also use these probabilities to determine who would win in a fight between a full-strength legion and two-reduced strength. The answer is the full-strength wins 34% of battles, the two reduced-strength win 29%, there's a tie (going to the defender) 35% of the time and a mutual destruction 2%.

Weighing it all up, it looks like it's usually better to spread the hits and get the training done asap.
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Carlos Roig
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That is great!

I think you are missing one extra parameter: how many Legions you do have in your army.

If you have 3 legions and you get 2 Hits, it costs you 2 points to repair both of them, but it would cost you 3 points to put a new one if both hits are taken from the same legion.

I'm taking seriously to make an App out of this and the chances for a Place Governor...haha. All this together makes a very useful Info-Helper-App
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Martin G
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ChichoBluesMan wrote:
I think you are missing one extra parameter: how many Legions you do have in your army.

If you have 3 legions and you get 2 Hits, it costs you 2 points to repair both of them, but it would cost you 3 points to put a new one if both hits are taken from the same legion.


Or as I put it:

Quote:
in this case it's a wash, but if the army started at 3 legions, it would be cheaper to repair two than replace one.


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Carlos Roig
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qwertymartin wrote:
ChichoBluesMan wrote:
I think you are missing one extra parameter: how many Legions you do have in your army.

If you have 3 legions and you get 2 Hits, it costs you 2 points to repair both of them, but it would cost you 3 points to put a new one if both hits are taken from the same legion.


Or as I put it:

Quote:
in this case it's a wash, but if the army started at 3 legions, it would be cheaper to repair two than replace one.




I missed it!!!
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Benjamin ElzingaCheng
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Another consideration is that you need to govern the province in order to add legions whereas training does not require you to govern the province. So reducing usually gives you more flexibility.
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Martin G
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benjamic wrote:
Another consideration is that you need to govern the province in order to add legions whereas training does not require you to govern the province. So reducing usually gives you more flexibility.


Ah, I don't think I'd actually noticed that rule, thanks!
 
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Marty Sample
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More of a late game issue, but by eliminating legions, you might not get them back. I've had a few games where the legions ( limited by the countermix ) run out.
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Martin G
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Marty S wrote:
More of a late game issue, but by eliminating legions, you might not get them back. I've had a few games where the legions ( limited by the countermix ) run out.


Wow, don't think we've got anywhere close to that!
 
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Marty Sample
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Its unusual to be sure. In a four player game, if most players build 3-4 multi legion armies, and invest in red cards it can happen. It gets pricey , relatively speaking as the third and fourth legion in an army can be expensive in terms of red points. But if you're buying Praetorian Guard cards, you'll have plenty of red points assuming you're not overthrowing the Emperor.
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